Right after finishing up perhaps their most chaotic series of 2025 in Cincinnati, the Toronto Blue Jays will begin a consequential three-game battle in New York.
When the Blue Jays and Yankees have finished their series on Sunday, Toronto could have a commanding six-game lead in the AL East or be equal to New York in the win column, with a couple of more moderate outcomes sandwiched in between. The Boston Red Sox coming to town on September 23 could have a similar feel, but that’s theoretical. The implications of the series in New York are locked in.
The matchup will be decided by several factors, most of which the 28 players on each roster will make some contribution to. Not everyone will make an equal impact, though, as a handful are positioned to have an outsized impact on the series.
Here are a few players — outside of the starting pitchers, who will obviously have their say — likely to mark their mark in this crucial AL East showdown:
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The Toronto Blue Jays begin a massive series against the New York Yankees on Friday at Yankee Stadium. Catch the action on Sportsnet or Sportsnet+ starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.
When healthy, the 29-year-old has been a massive two-way contributor for the Blue Jays this season, and that should continue over the weekend.
His work in centre field will be important against a Yankees lineup that has the highest flyball rate in the majors, and his bat is perfectly suited to the ballpark he’s visiting.
Although Varsho doesn’t have a storied history at Yankee Stadium (.463 OPS in 11 games), that seems like a small-sample-size fluke. According to Statcast, Varsho’s career batted balls would be expected to clear the wall in the Bronx 109 times — a significantly higher number than his actual home run total (97).
Many left-handed power hitters have a batted ball profile that fits Yankee Stadium nicely, but that’s especially true of Varsho. Of the 430 players with at least 100 plate appearances this season, his rate of balls pulled in the air (29.3 percent) ranks 15th.
Between Varsho’s typical defensive importance and the likelihood of the outfielder making use of New York’s short right-field porch, he should be an important figure in the series.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Chisholm is having a career year with New York thanks largely to his increased power, but his speed might be the biggest cause of headaches for the Blue Jays this weekend.
Since the All-Star Break, no one has more steals than the swift infielder (16), who carries a season-long stealing success rate of 86.67 percent.
For most of the year, containing the running game was not an issue for Toronto, but it has been exposed lately. Alejandro Kirk hasn’t caught an opposing runner stealing since July 5, allowing 20 successful swipes in that time. During the same span, Tyler Heineman has nabbed the occasional thief, but he’s also been behind the plate for two games where opponents managed four or more steals.
The blame doesn’t lie solely with the catchers, but the results are what they are. For two months, teams facing the Blue Jays are 42-for-49 stealing bases. New York ranks fourth in the majors in steals in the second half, with Chisholm leading the charge.
Expect the 27-year-old to test Toronto on the bases.
Alejandro Kirk
Kirk’s attempts to control the run game will be an important subplot in this series, but he deserves a mention for his offensive prognosis.
Specifically, the 26-year-old might be Toronto’s best bet to combat the heat New York will bring to the mound.
While the composition of New York’s pitching staff has changed significantly over the course of the season, in its current form, its most prominent characteristic might be high-level velocity. Since the trade deadline, the Yankees’ average fastball velo (95.3 m.p.h.) ranks fourth in the majors, and two of the starters the Blue Jays will see on the weekend (Cam Schlittler and Luis Gil) average more than 95 m.p.h. on their heaters.
Among the Blue Jays hitters who have seen at least 1,500 pitches this season (shorthand for everyday-ish players), Kirk has the highest SLG (.522), ISO (.232) and home run total (four) against high-velocity pitches.
He’s generally driven high-velocity pitches the other way, which is not a bad idea at Yankee Stadium — and his hits against 95 m.p.h.-plus offerings overlaid at New York’s ball park show he might even have a couple more home runs if he spent more time in the Bronx.
Like Varsho, Kirk’s influence over the weekend is likely to be multifaceted, but his offence has a chance to take centre stage.
Stanton is on any list of players likely to affect games in an outsized way because he’s a dangerous power hitter in the midst of career rejuvenation who has been one of the best offensive players in the game on a per plate appearance basis this season.
The same could be said of George Springer, though.
Stanton gets special mention here because of his historical advantage over Toronto’s projected starters. The hulking slugger has faced the trio of Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassit a total of 66 times, and he’s hitting .283 and slugging .667 with seven home runs.
It’s a relatively small sample, but considering how strong he’s been against right-handed pitching this season (179 wRC+) and at home (182 wRC+), he should be comfortable in the matchups he’ll see.
A Blue Jays staff that gives up home runs at the fifth-highest rate in the majors (1.37 HR/9) needs to be wary of a hitter who has the highest home run percentage of any hitter with at least 200 plate appearances this season (8.5 percent).
That’s particularly true when he’s beaten up their starting pitchers in the past.
