Understandably, most Connor McDavid interviews these days are centred around his looming free agency. But the Edmonton Oilers captain still has a season to play on his expiring contract, and he laid out his individual goals in a conversation with Sportsnet’s Mark Spector last week.
“I want to prove that scoring 50 or 60 (goals) is not a one-off,” McDavid told Spector. “I’ve had 50 goals, and I’ve had 100 assists, and I like the goals a little bit more.”
Back in 2023, McDavid won his third Hart Trophy, fourth Ted Lindsay Award and fifth Art Ross Trophy after putting up a whopping 153 points. But he also took home his first and only Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy by scoring 64 goals.
McDavid, however, has scored 58 goals over the past two seasons, including only 26 last season. His average of 0.39 goals per game was the third lowest of his 10-year career.
So what must McDavid do to relocate his ‘Rocket’ Richard form of three seasons ago? Let us compare McDavid’s personal record-setting 2022-23 season to his still-impressive (but disappointing-by-his-standards) 2024-25 season.
The most obvious difference is that the quality of McDavid’s shot attempts, which is reflected in his expected goal numbers, was less dangerous last season. He was not as effective getting off shots from the inner slot, where he scored 28 of his 64 goals in 2022-23.
Interestingly, McDavid actually took a greater percentage of his total shot attempts from the slot in 2024-25 (67.3 per cent) than he did in 2022-23 (66.2 per cent), but his accuracy was far worse. McDavid hit the net on 57.8 per cent of his scoring chances last season, compared to 68.1 per cent three seasons ago.
That extends to McDavid’s scoring chances off the rush, where he is at his most menacing. He averaged virtually the same amount of rush scoring chances per game in 2022-23 (1.56) and 2024-25 (1.55) but scored on 21.1 per cent of his attempts three seasons ago en route to 64 goals (27 off the rush). Last season, McDavid converted on his rush scoring chances at half that rate (10.6 per cent), which led to him scoring just 11 of his 26 goals in that fashion.
Also of note was the disappearance of the one-timer from McDavid’s arsenal. McDavid fired only 18 one-timers last season (0.27 per game) and six from the slot, leading to just two goals. He recorded 10 one-timer goals on 55 tries (0.67 attempts per game) in 2022-23. Seven of those goals came from the slot on 38 attempts.
McDavid’s focus for the upcoming season is on being more assertive. He explained to reporters last week how that would look.
“Assertive is shooting the puck, just being more decisive with decisions,” McDavid said. “Part of my talent is the ability to change my mind. But at times, it can take away from shooting the puck, taking it to the net, taking it to the hole, whatever it is. I look back on scoring (64 goals), it was a lot more shooting (and being) a little more assertive (and) aggressive around the net. It’s something I can get back to.”
Few NHL players can rival McDavid’s ability to penetrate the slot. But those slot carries were not as productive last season as they were in 2022-23. Less than 60 per cent of McDavid’s total carries (423) in 2024-25 led to him generating either a scoring chance (159) or slot shot on net (91) for himself. That represents a steep drop-off from McDavid’s career year, when 70.3 per cent of his 529 slot carries led to personal scoring chances or slot shots on net. Based on his comments, expect McDavid to take charge more often when driving to the net this season.
McDavid was one of only six players to crack 100 points last season — the eighth time in 10 years that he has reached triple digits. Wayne Gretzky is the only player in NHL history with more 100-point seasons through his first 10 years.
And yet McDavid considers last season’s performance to be unsatisfactory, which speaks to his sky-high expectations. As McDavid and the Oilers look to finally break through after consecutive Stanley Cup Final losses, the captain is highly motivated as he enters this critical season for the organization.
“Everybody’s always got something to prove, and I’m no different,” McDavid told reporters last week. “It’s a new year, a new season for everybody, and I’m excited to get going. I’m excited to get back to a level that I (know I) can play at.”
All stats via Sportlogiq
