Leaving the Bronx last weekend with their AL East lead cut to two games, the Toronto Blue Jays arrived home to Rogers Centre for another critical series against the always-tough Houston Astros.
But thanks to some late-game dramatics and Kevin Gausman’s dominance, Toronto bounced back from its series loss to the New York Yankees by taking two of three from Houston. The wins not only vaulted the Blue Jays back into the No. 1 seed in the American League, but also allowed them to gain a game on the Yankees in the division race.
Those Yankees will continue their stretch against AL contenders as they head to Fenway Park to kick off a key three-game set against the Boston Red Sox. The longtime rivals enter Friday’s opener separated by just half a game in the standings, meaning the outcome could go a long way towards deciding who hosts a potential wild-card round if Toronto hangs on to the division.
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Watch Blue Jays vs. Orioles on Sportsnet
The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles open a three-game series at Rogers Centre on Friday. Catch the action on Sportsnet or Sportsnet+ starting at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.
Toronto, meanwhile, will begin an AL East battle of its own at home against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have been out of the post-season picture for some time, but they’ve gone 7-1 in September and have played better baseball in the second half.
With their two closest pursuers going head-to-head, the Blue Jays stand to gain ground on whichever team falters, provided they take care of business against Baltimore. The flip side of that equation, of course, is that any loss would cost them in the standings.
The AL East isn’t the only race tightening as we enter the third-to-last weekend of the regular season, so what better time to check in on the hunt for October across MLB.
IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY
American League
No. 1 and AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays (84-62): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers (84-63): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (79-68) vs. No. 6 Seattle Mariners (79-68)*
No. 4 New York Yankees (81-65) vs. No. 5 Boston Red Sox (81-66)
*Astros and Mariners tied for AL West lead. Season series is 5-5 with three games remaining.
National League
No. 1 and NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (89-58): Bye
No. 2 and NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies (87-60): Bye
No. 3 and NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (82-64) vs. No. 6 New York Mets (76-71)
No. 4 Chicago Cubs (83-63) vs. No. 5 San Diego Padres (80-67)
WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
Beyond the race at the top of the American League, things have begun to tighten at the bottom of the playoff picture, as well. The Texas Rangers have continued to keep their improbable run alive despite having multiple stars on the IL, completing a sweep of the MLB-leading Milwaukee Brewers to extend their win streak to four games and emerge as a real threat to the final wild-card spot.
The Cleveland Guardians have worked their way back into the picture with a 7-2 run this month, downing the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals to jump both in the standings and move 3.5 games behind the Astros and Mariners.
Over in the National League, the New York Mets are in the midst of a free fall. They were just swept in four straight by the Philadelphia Phillies after dropping two of three to the Cincinnati Reds. The good news for the Mets is that they’re still in a playoff spot, but the bad news is that the Reds and San Francisco Giants have closed the gap and now sit 1.5 games back of New York.
STORYLINES TO FOLLOW IN PLAYOFF RACES THIS WEEKEND
How Blue Jays handle Orioles pitching staff
Baltimore’s September surge, which has included series wins over the Padres, Dodgers and Pirates, has been fuelled by some strong performances from across its pitching staff. Its bullpen has allowed just five earned runs in 39.1 innings this month, which has helped the Orioles secure four walk-off wins. It makes how the Blue Jays attack Baltimore’s starters even more important this weekend. Toronto will be tasked with solving Trevor Rogers (8-2, 1.51 ERA on the season) on Friday and is scheduled to face struggling veteran Tomoyuki Sugano and what looks like a bullpen day to wrap up the series. Led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays hitters have continued to swing the bats well to open the month, a trend they’ll hope to continue against the Orioles.
Red Sox have owned season series vs. Yankees
Often billed as the greatest rivalry in sports, recent Red Sox–Yankees matchups haven’t had the same edge that once defined their meetings. With both teams back in contention in 2025, however, the potential for some Boston-New York drama is lurking, if the Yankees can do their part. The Red Sox are 8-2 in the season series and have outscored the Yankees by nearly 20 runs when matched up head-to-head. And things are lining up pretty well for Boston ahead of its final meeting with the Bronx Bombers in 2025. The Red Sox have their top three starters, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello and Garrett Crochet, lined up for the series, each of whom has fared well against New York this season. It’ll be a tall task for the Yankees, who were swept during their last trip to Fenway, but at least they won’t have to deal with Rafael Devers — notorious for his success in the matchup — this time around.
Can Mets youngsters right the ship against red-hot Rangers?
As New York limps home after its 3-7 road trip, it will turn to its trio of rookie starters to try to get back on track. Canadian Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat and Nolan McLean are lined up to take the ball for the Mets when they host the Rangers at Citi Field. Friday’s matchup is particularly intriguing, as Tong will square off against former Met Cy Young winner, Jacob deGrom, to open the series. Many of New York’s recent issues have stemmed from some shaky starting pitching, so the group of rookies has been called to steady the rotation in the middle of a playoff race. Led by McLean, they’ve mostly been up to the task so far, combining to allow 13 earned runs over 48.2 innings while striking out 52. The Mets will need them to step up once again as they try to cool down Texas’s bats and fend off the Giants and Reds.
Who holds AL West lead by Monday?
After dropping a pair of games in Toronto, the Astros’ grip on the AL West hasn’t been weaker. Sparked by a pair of walk-off wins, the Mariners pulled even with Houston in the division race and are riding a six-game win streak at the same time that the Astros are struggling to close out wins. The two are on a collision course for a three-game matchup next weekend that will hold major post-season implications, but in the meantime, they’ll slug it out for sole possession of the top spot in the division. With Houston starting up a series against the Braves and Seattle continuing its matchup with the Los Angeles Angels, the Mariners would appear to be in better position over the weekend. However, the Astros have their top two arms, Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, lined up to pitch in Atlanta, so they could be in for a bounce-back of their own in the coming days.
PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT
Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among teams battling for post-season spots.
American League
Toronto’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Toronto’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.9%
Detroit’s FanGraphs odds: 99.9% | Detroit’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.9%
Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 76.6% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 61.9%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 99.5% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 97.7%
Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 95.4% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 95.7%
Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 92.0% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 84.8%
Texas’s FanGraphs odds: 27.5% | Texas’s Baseball Reference odds: 51.4%
Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 7.4% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: 7.8%
National League
Milwaukee’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Milwaukee’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Philadelphia’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Philadelphia’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
Los Angeles’s FanGraphs odds: 99.9% | Los Angeles’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.9%
Chicago’s FanGraphs odds: 99.9% | Chicago’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%
San Diego’s FanGraphs odds: 98.9% | San Diego’s Baseball Reference odds: 98.3%
New York’s FanGraphs odds: 77.9% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 48.9%
Cincinnati’s FanGraphs odds: 12.5% | Cincinnati’s Baseball Reference odds: 22.1%
San Francisco’s FanGraphs odds: 8.1% | San Francisco’s Baseball Reference odds: 23.0%
