When the Toronto Blue Jays acquired Shane Bieber in the midst of his Tommy John surgery rehab, the best the team could hope for was that he’d be able to replicate his past success.
In Bieber’s seven MLB seasons before 2025, he’s managed different levels of effectiveness ranging from a near-unhittable Cy Young winner (2020) to a mid-rotation calibre starter with a 3.80 ERA and worse peripherals (2023). It wasn’t entirely clear what version of Bieber the Blue Jays were going to get when they dealt for him, but it felt fair to assume his arsenal would closely resemble the one that he featured with the Cleveland Guardians.
From velocity to pitch mix, nothing feels truly unprecedented, but the evolution of Bieber’s changeup makes what he’s featuring as a Blue Jay distinct from his repertoire with Cleveland. It’s not completely transformative, but it’s a significant development — and could play a role in how the right-hander matches up against potential playoff opponents.
To this point, Bieber’s changeup has been one of his least important offerings, which he’s rarely turned to in high-leverage moments. Between 2021 and 2023, for instance, he used the change less than 5 per cent of the time in each season and didn’t earn a single strikeout with it.
In five starts, it’s remained a complementary pitch, but it’s become important to his approach against left-handed hitters with a career-high 18.4 per cent usage rate. It’s already struck out four hitters — including Bieber’s second K in a Blue Jays uniform.
The unusual offspeed pitch averages 89.2 m.p.h., and it’s generated a healthy 46.2 per cent whiff rate and an xwOBA against of .168. It is far from the sole reason that the 51 left-handed hitters who’ve faced Bieber this season are slashing .143/.176/.163 and striking out 37.3 per cent of the time — but it’s up there.
Those numbers come from a small enough sample to justify skepticism.
After all, we’re talking about one of the tertiary pitches in the repertoire of a pitcher who’s made five starts. Without further context, most of that can be safely ignored, but the meaningful context is that the vertical movement on the pitch has improved radically.
The change Bieber is throwing now is harder than it’s ever been, while simultaneously falling off the table over 10 inches further than it did earlier in his career.
In Bieber’s two-start cameo in 2024, there were signs of what we’re seeing now as the right-hander threw his change more often than he had in the past (13.3 per cent), increased its velocity to 89.0 m.p.h., and even got three punchouts with it. The difference in 2025 is that there’s a radical improvement in its movement.
The gap between where he was last season and 2025 is clear to the naked eye. Here is a changeup from 2024 with 28 inches of vertical break (approximately his changeup average that season of 28.1).
If that looks like a perfectly good changeup to you, fair enough. Its downward movement is very close to average, just 1.5 inches less than ‘comparable’ changeups, which Statcast defines as offerings of the same type ‘within two m.p.h. and 0.5 feet of extension/release point.’
In 2025, the change Bieber features drops noticeably more. Here’s a changeup from this season with 35 inches of vertical break (which is approximately his average of 35.3):
Now that pitch has 4.6 inches more vertical movement than comparable offerings. That’s the biggest horizontal or vertical movement outlier among any of Bieber’s five pitches.
This new-look changeup is a pitch Bieber has thrown just 60 times in the majors, making it too early to confidently project how it affects his outlook. As promising as its combination of velocity and movement is, the right-hander will have to locate the pitch effectively to get the most out of it.
At the same time, it’s already reasonable to say that Bieber is a more uncomfortable at-bat for a left-hander hitter than he used to be. That notion is supported by the promise in his changeup and his results against them this season.
Bieber’s signature breaking balls, his slider and knuckle curve, both feature glove-side break that tends to be more effective against right-handers than lefty bats. Before 2025, left-handers had respectable results against Bieber (.245 AVG, .409 SLG, 1.18 HR/9) while right-handers floundered (.228 AVG, .355 SLG, 0.85 HR/9). He’s now equipped with the most compelling weapon he’s ever had that breaks arm-side, away from left-handers.
That could make a significant difference in the playoffs. Three other American League teams that are near certain to make the post-season — the New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, and Seattle Mariners — consistently deploy six left-handed (or switch-hitting) position players against righty starters. Those matchups feel less daunting for Bieber than they might’ve been in previous years.
Considering the 30-year-old is a two-time all-star with a Cy Young Award on his shelf, it’s safe to say there has never been a surefire strategy for putting up runs against him. In past years, the closest thing would be stacking a lineup with left-handed hitters and hoping for the best, and thanks to his evolving changeup, even that idea is losing steam.
