It’s a stretch to say no team is safe from missing the playoffs. Even in a salary-capped league designed to help everyone live, more or less, in the same neighbourhood, some clubs won’t be moving from the sunny side of the street.
That said, last season served as a particularly harsh reminder that an invite to the big dance is something even quality organizations can’t take for granted.
Five teams that made the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs missed the boat one year later, and, to varying degrees, the failure of each one registered as a surprise.
The New York Rangers not only made the 2024 playoffs, but advanced to the Eastern Conference Final — just as they had two years earlier in 2022. Twelve months ago, the Blueshirts — coming off a first-overall showing in the standings — were viewed as Cup contenders. But a 4-15-0 stretch from about American Thanksgiving to New Year’s Eve totally scuttled that talk and greased New York’s slide out of the post-season.
The Boston Bruins made the playoffs for the eighth straight year in 2024, but only three teams had a worse goal-differential than the minus-50 posted by a B’s team that finished last in the Atlantic Division in 2024-25 and missed the post-season for just the third time in 18 campaigns.
The Nashville Predators made the second season for the ninth time in 10 years in 2024, went out and signed multiple top-tier UFAs in the off-season, then promptly became one of the worst teams in the NHL.
In Vancouver, the Canucks fell from a 109-point, Pacific Division-winning showing in 2023-24 to a team with 19 fewer points in 2024-25 that was squarely outside the playoff picture.
Even the New York Islanders missing could be deemed a small surprise given the squad had figured out a way to get in with largely the same group in five of the past six seasons before 2024-25.
On the other side of the coin, the Ottawa Senators — after missing the post-season for seven straight years — ended the drought by making the playoffs in 2025. And how about the Montreal Canadiens, who found a way to grab the final berth in the East after three straight seasons of being bad enough to select in the top five picks of the draft.
There’s a push-pull in the hockey universe that sees unexpected squads rise above, while others are shocked by being left out in the cold.
Who could be on the post-season chopping block this year? And who stands to benefit when a 2025 Stanley Cup participant stubs their toe? Let’s identify some vulnerable squads before we cite the up-and-comers.
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TEAMS IN DANGER OF FALLING OUT
Every 2025 wild-card entry
You could feasibly argue that the arrow is actually pointing up on all four wild-card clubs from last year. The Canadiens are adding Noah Dobson and Ivan Demidov, Ottawa will have 2C Dylan Cozens in the fold all season, the Minnesota Wild made it despite stud winger Kirill Kaprizov and top centre Joel Eriksson Ek both missing about half the year, and St. Louis was the best team in the league after the 4 Nations Face-Off. While turnover is inevitable, the Habs, Sens, Wild and Blues can all make good cases for a playoff return in 2026.
That said, when you snag the last or second-last spot available, it’s hard to argue you’re bulletproof. Montreal and Minnesota were the only playoff squads to have negative goal-differentials, and the Blues’ 96 points were the same number posted by a Calgary Flames team that only missed by virtue of having fewer regulation wins than St. Louis. As for Ottawa, there’s just an inherent challenge that comes with playing in a loaded Atlantic Division. Any slip and the Sens could find themselves in trouble again.
The Devils may have finished third in the Metropolitan Division, but their 91 points were six fewer than Ottawa had as a wild-card team and the same number posted by Montreal as WC2.
The Devils may be the most high-variance team in the league based on the number of oft-injured players they have in big roles; think Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes and Jacob Markstrom.
On one hand, you could see New Jersey challenging for first place in the Metro; on the other, the injury bug biting a few of his favourite Devils again could have them life and death to make the playoffs.
Recall, this team had 112 points in 2023, then dropped 31(!) points to 81 in 2024.
This is more of an acknowledgement that teams take sizable stumbles than sounding a warning siren that the Kings are in serious trouble.
Again, the Rangers had a league-best 114 points in 2023-24, the Devils had 112 in 2022-23, Vegas tied Colorado for the best record in the NHL in the pandemic-shortened 2021 campaign and each of those clubs tumbled out of the playoffs the following year.
So why nominate the Kings as opposed to, say, the overachieving Washington Capitals? First off, because it’s been taking about 95 to 98 points to clear the cutoff in the West, as opposed to about 91 to 93 in the East the past few years.
The Kings also failed to make a significant offensive addition over the summer, while also saying goodbye to a valuable defenceman in Vladislav Gavrikov.
Really, though, this comes down to the fact that Darcy Kuemper was one of the best goalies in the league last year and while that could absolutely be the case again in 2025-26, Kuemper is 35 with a lengthy history of missing significant chunks of season. If he’s shelved for eight weeks, would that be enough to drop the Kings — even with their steady play — from 105 points to 97 in a year where you might need 98 to get in?
TEAMS THAT COULD JUMP INTO THE PLAYOFFS
New York Rangers
The Rangers may not be the Cup challenger some thought they were 12 months ago, but it is not hard to envision this club climbing back into the top eight in the East.
J.T. Miller — recently minted as captain of the team — will get a full season on Broadway after arriving in a trade with Vancouver on the final day of January. Miller produced 35 points in the 32 contests he played with the Rangers last year, and he’ll relieve some of the burden that was on fellow centre Mika Zibanejad.
Igor Shesterkin posted the worst save percentage of his career (.905) last year, but perhaps with his contract situation fully settled, the 29-year-old can get closer to the form that saw him win the 2022 Vezina Trophy and establish himself as one of the best in the game. The team also added Vladislav Gavrikov in free agency, and the big blue-liner should help settle the defence corps a bit in front of Shesterkin.
At the top, the Blueshirts have a new coaching staff headed up by two-time Stanley Cup champion Mike Sullivan. That alone should go a long way to altering the awful vibes we saw in New York last year.
If the Jackets receive competent goaltending from the duo of Elvis Merzlikins and Jet Greaves, Columbus — which finished two points behind playoff teams Montreal and New Jersey last season — could push its way into the big dance.
The Jackets have one of the best young forwards in the game, Adam Fantilli, looking to take another step following his 31-goal breakout campaign as an NHL sophomore last year.
Fantilli is part of a top-six forward group that has ample skill and size across the board. If Columbus can get to the post-season, it should find playoff-style hockey to be right up its alley.
One season after he was the runner-up for the Vezina, Thatcher Demko was limited to 23 games last year. His lengthy injury history speaks for itself, but if Demko can play 50 games this year, backup Kevin Lankinen should comfortably be able to handle 32.
It’s impossible to write about last year’s Canucks without using the word ‘vibes’ in a negative way. The team’s top two centres, Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, were feuding, and the fallout saw Miller dealt to the Rangers. Even if the move hurt the club on paper, something had to give.
Speaking of Pettersson, it goes without saying the Canucks can’t get off the mat without a much, much better showing from their top-line pivot. The 26-year-old is going to get every chance to right the ship under new coach Adam Foote.
Even if people are already fretting about Quinn Hughes leaving in two years, the Canucks captain remains one of the best defencemen in the world. There’s potential for a post-season return in B.C.
The Ducks already made a big leap last year, jumping from 59 points in 2023-24 to 80. Could they tack on another 17 or 18 and squeeze in?
The team has young players like Leo Carlsson and unsigned RFA Mason McTavish who could really pop; a goalie, in Lukas Dostal, with the potential to jump up and be one of the best in the game at his position and a coach, in Joel Quenneville, who’s done a lot of winning at the NHL level.
Throw in some steadying vets like Jacob Trouba and his fellow former Ranger, Chris Kreider, and the Ducks are a team on the rise.
Utah was without two key defencemen — Sean Durzi and John Marino — for a significant portion of last season. The Mammoth (R.I.P. Hockey Club) had a .605 points percentage in their final 38 games and added a great young winger in JJ Peterka over the summer. With Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley on the rise, the top-six forward group could suddenly start to look potent.
Just for fun, a quick history lesson: Detroit made the playoffs just twice in a 17-season stretch from 1966-67 through 1982-83, then cracked the post-season every campaign but two in a 32-year stretch, and has now missed the second season for nine consecutive springs.
That’s one elongated boom-or-bust cycle.
Detroit will get a full go under Todd McLellan — a mid-season replacement last year — and hope young players Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond and Simon Edvinsson can propel a largely veteran group forward.
It’s hard to envision Detroit making a big jump, but you could see the Wings nudging up to 93 or 94 points.
Calgary Flames
Calgary finished tied for the 14th-best points percentage in the league last season (.585), but was edged out of the West’s top eight teams on a tiebreaker.
Any dip from Dustin Wolf as a sophomore goalie likely scuttles the Flames’ chances, but we must include them on this list based on what Wolf showed last year.
Boston Bruins
We needed a team to serve as a reminder that clubs can come out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Sixteen squads missed the big dance last year, and, if you haven’t figured this out already, except for a handful of them — Chicago, San Jose, teams that play in Pennsylvania — it’s really tough to rule out the possibility of post-season participation seven months before the tournament begins.
What’s the case for a team that finished last in its division to possibly reappear in the playoffs? After injuries submarined their seasons, Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm return to anchor the top four, while Jeremy Swayman — who never got going following a summer-long contract negotiation last year — is a prime bounce-back candidate in goal. Throw in the endless ability of David Pastrnak to produce offence and Morgan Geekie proving his breakout showing was no fluke, and you’ve got a competitive B’s team capable of grinding out points.
