Factors that could swing Blue Jays’ season-ending series against Rays

The Toronto Blue Jays are in desperate need of a strong effort.

Heading into their final series of the season against the Tampa Bay Rays, the Blue Jays are riding a 2-6 run where they’ve been outscored 45-19.

A little momentum entering the post-season couldn’t hurt, but more importantly, at least matching the New York Yankees over the weekend would grant the team the AL East title and a bye past a wild-card round that hasn’t treated them well in recent years.

Standing in the way of that goal is a Rays team with a substandard record (77-82), but a healthy run differential (+46) that tells the story of a team that is no pushover. It’s also a squad against which the Blue Jays have an ugly 3-7 record this season, getting outscored 51-26 in those games.

Toronto will have to hope that isn’t indicative of what’s to come in the regular season’s final chapter if it hopes to earn the seventh division crown in franchise history. Here are some factors that could swing the most consequential series of the season:

Surviving the heat

Not every Rays pitcher is a fireballer, but the team has the highest average fastball velocity of any MLB club (95.6 m.p.h.), a full 0.5 m.p.h. more than the second squad on the leaderboard (Boston Red Sox).

A dose of that heat seems unlikely to be a balm for a struggling Blue Jays offence, though, for what it’s worth, Toronto has hit well above-average against fastballs this season, ranking eighth league-wide by run value (+11.3).

Still, there’s a difference between all heaters and the ones with above-average juice. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Blue Jays who’ve done best against fastballs 95 m.p.h. or harder are the team’s biggest stars, while those who have struggled have tended to be their role players.

Here’s a summary of how the hitters on the club’s current roster have fared against plus velocity (with Joey Loperfido excluded because he’s seen less than 100 pitches that fit that description):

If the Blue Jays are going to manage an offensive breakthrough over the weekend, it will likely be fronted by their highest-profile hitters.

Success of Tampa’s starters vs. Blue Jays

Not only does Toronto have some serious velocity with which to contend, but it also must match up against pitchers who’ve given its lineup headaches recently.

The way things line up, it looks like the Blue Jays will face Adrian Houser, Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour. That isn’t a trio of household names, but each has had his way with Toronto this year:

• In two starts against the Blue Jays, Houser has pitched 13.1 innings, conceding just three runs. The veteran has faced current Toronto hitters 82 times, and they’re slugging .284 with just two extra-base hits.

• Boyle’s start against Toronto on Sept. 15 was arguably the best of his MLB career. He held the Blue Jays scoreless through six innings with five strikeouts and no walks.

• Seymour is a rookie with only four MLB starts total, but his outing against Toronto on Sept. 17 was undoubtedly his best. The southpaw allowed only one unearned run over seven innings in a win.

Add all of that together, and the Rays’ projected starters have pitched 26.1 innings vs. the Blue Jays in 2025 with a 1.03 ERA. Toronto will need a significant reversal of fortune.

New-look infield

There is no question that the Blue Jays miss Bo Bichette’s bat, but it’s also apparent that the team’s infield defence is at its best with Giménez at shortstop.

Defensive metrics have long disliked Bichette’s glovework, and while there isn’t much data on Giménez yet, his work at short has ranged between smooth and spectacular.

Clement is an asset at either second base (+5 OAA) or third base (+6 OAA), and third has been Barger’s best position as he’s graded out at close to average (minus-1 OAA). Guerrero’s defence is divisive, but he has his strengths — and Kiner-Falefa can boost the group off the bench or as part of a defence-first lineup construction.

The bottom line is that this group is stronger on the dirt than it was when Bichette was in every day and IKF was still a Pittsburgh Pirate. That’s good news for the Blue Jays, as the Rays hitters have the highest groundball rate in the majors (45.8 per cent). 

Giménez and co. should be busy and may be able to steal some hits.

Dealing with Rays’ lefties

One thing that makes the Rays offence distinct is that the roster is packed with left-handed hitters.

Tampa Bay boasts seven lefties and a switch-hitter in its position-player group, which is simultaneously good and bad news for the Blue Jays.

Later in games, manager John Schneider may struggle to find matchups he likes with his bullpen. His top lefty — Brendon Little — has been uneven in the second half of the season, and his other two southpaws are each inexperienced either in leverage relief (Eric Lauer) or overall (rookie Mason Fluharty). All three of those pitchers has his merits, but the Blue Jays are more comfortable seeing right-handed bats late. That allows them to deploy Seranthony Domínguez, Yariel Rodríguez, Braydon Fisher and Tommy Nance (who hasn’t allowed a single extra-base hit to a right-hander this season) with confidence.

The good news for Toronto is that each of its scheduled starters has given lefty bats fits (albeit in small samples for Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage).

Reverse splits can be mere statistical noise at times. That said, Gausman has been tougher on lefties than righties over the course of his 13-year career, Yesavage’s arsenal has an unusual movement profile where every pitch fades to the arm side away from left-handers, and Bieber’s new-look change has made him more dangerous when he lacks the platoon advantage.

Toronto should feel good about its chance to quiet Tampa Bay’s bats in the early innings over the weekend.

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