When the MLB playoffs begin on Tuesday, chaos is a reasonable expectation.
Baseball arguably doesn’t lend itself to short series well, and even large talent disparities between post-season opponents can be overcome far more readily than in other sports with similar playoff structures like hockey and basketball.
This is a well-understood phenomenon, but sometimes it leads to the hyperbolic assumption that reaching the playoffs is literally all that matters and that the MLB postseason is a pure lottery. Some years it can feel like that, but even within the randomness inherent to playoff baseball, having the best roster — and easiest path through October — is still relevant, even if it provides no guarantees.
With that in mind, here is a power ranking of this season’s playoff teams:
The Phillies have had MLB’s most effective pitching staff all season long, and their staff is so deep that even without Zack Wheeler, they’ll still have a rotation edge against whoever they play. The southpaw trio of Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo and Ranger Suárez have combined for 543 innings of 3.18 ERA ball this season, good for 15.8 fWAR.
Philadelphia has weaknesses (namely, its bullpen and defence), but in a field of imperfect contenders, its strengths stand out.
The Phillies rotation should keep them in most games, and they are likely to get some big hits from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper — both of whom have performed significantly better in the playoffs than the regular season in their careers. Harper, in particular, has been superhuman in the playoffs since coming to Philadelphia, with a .325/.444/.709 slash line in 34 games.
With Trea Turner returning just in time for the playoffs, a fully healthy Phillies lineup is ready to do some damage.
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Seattle has come on strong in the second half of the season, and FanGraphs projects the Mariners as the World Series favourites entering the post-season with odds of 20.2 per cent.
They may carry MLB’s seventh-best record, but the Mariners made a massive lineup upgrade with mid-season trades for Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez, and they might be the healthiest team in baseball. Seattle’s IL contains just one position player who’s appeared in 11 games this season (2B Ryan Bliss), no starters and three minor bullpen pieces.
Another factor that could help Seattle go deep in the playoffs is that its ALDS opponent will be one of the AL Central teams, both of which feature at the bottom of these power rankings.
The Mariners’ greatest flaw is that they grade out as one of the worst defensive teams in the majors (minus-29 Fielding Run Value), and by far the worst in the playoffs (the Phillies are next worst at minus-13 FRV). Their pitching might be good enough to work around that, but it’s the sort of issue that can deliver a crippling blow in a closely contested post-season affair.
There are reasons to doubt the Blue Jays that range from the team’s relatively pedestrian run differential (+77) to the absence of Bo Bichette, and questions at the back end of both the rotation and the bullpen.
While those worries are valid, this team ranks second in the majors in position-player fWAR (32.5), and its pitching staff is better now than its unimpressive season-long numbers suggest.
Shane Bieber is a significant addition to the playoff rotation, deadline reinforcements Louis Varland and Seranthony Domínguez are settling in after some early wobbles and Trey Yesavage could make an impact as a starter or multi-inning reliever.
There are notable warts that land the Blue Jays here despite posting the best record in the American League, but skipping the wild-card round and holding home-field advantage are massive boosts to their chances — particularly considering they went 54-27 at Rogers Centre this season.
The Brewers probably aren’t the fourth-best team on paper, and according to FanGraphs, their World Series odds sit at a modest 7.2 per cent, but there’s only so much doubt you can cast over what they accomplished over 162 games.
Milwaukee has the best record in the pack for a reason and earned the home-field advantage that goes along with that distinction. That could be relevant considering just one of its possible National League opponents (the Chicago Cubs) had a winning record on the road this year.
The Brewers’ lineup is devoid of holes, while the team’s workmanlike offence is boosted by solid defence and MLB-best base running. The rotation behind Freddy Peralta is on the unproven side, but there’s talent there — and a stellar bullpen to back it up.
Milwaukee’s success will generate plenty of conversation about roster building on a low budget and the importance of playing fundamental baseball, but what matters more than the narratives is the fact that this is a heck of a squad.
There is no doubt the Dodgers have disappointed this season — and you could accuse this ranking of being too deferential to the household names on the back of the jerseys — but they are probably the most balanced team in the majors.
Los Angeles is the only MLB club to rank in the top five in both position-player and pitcher fWAR, and it is relatively healthy outside of the bullpen. Star catcher Will Smith could miss some early post-season games, but there are no other position players or surefire playoff starters on the IL.
This team’s lineup is not the deepest, but it’s as proven and dangerous as it gets at the top. While the bullpen is on the shaky side, it’s recently been bolstered by a resurgent Roki Sasaki. It will also get reinforcements from whichever current starters don’t crack the rotation.
We have yet to see Shohei Ohtani unleashed as a two-way player in the post-season, and it could be a game-changing force. Even without a bye to the divisional round, this is a tough team to count out.
New York has the most dangerous offence in the sport and enters the playoffs on an 11-1 heater, so there is certainly a case for bumping them up this list, but a wild-card battle with the Boston Red Sox is no joke, and the bullpen has the highest ERA of any playoff team (4.37).
There’s no doubting the Yankees’ combination of power and starting pitching is a potent mix, but they don’t field or run well and close, late-game situations can get dicey for them. They also have an exceedingly difficult path forward.
In order to reach the ALCS, New York would have to win series against both Boston and Toronto, teams they went 9-17 against during the regular season.
The Padres feature a below-average run-scoring offence with a major power deficiency, and a rotation with roughly average statistics, so why are they close to the top half of this list?
San Diego’s bullpen isn’t just the best in the bigs — it has that title by a wide margin. The Padres’ bullpen ERA (3.06) is significantly better than the second-best relief corps (the Boston Red Sox at 3.41). The absence of Jason Adam hurts, but San Diego built on its strength with the addition of Mason Miller at the trade deadline and is not short on late-game options.
The team’s rotation has also gotten healthier over the course of the season. With Michael King and Yu Darvish back in the fold, San Diego can feel better about its run suppression early in games. Darvish has an ugly ERA (5.87), but his xERA (3.29) tells the story of a guy visited by some cursed luck who might be able to help at the back of a four-man rotation later in the playoffs.
While there’s no getting around the unimpressive offence, the Padres could win some games by snuffing out opposing lineups, particularly late in games.
8. Boston Red Sox
Thanks to their elite bullpen fronted by Aroldis Chapman, exciting young lineup and the presence of ace Garrett Crochet, the Red Sox are an easy team to like in a short series.
Boston could encounter issues the longer a series goes, though, as the top starting options behind Crochet include a pair of young, unproven options (Kyle Harrison and Connelly Early) plus a duo of veterans with excellent ERAs but dubious underlying numbers (Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello).
There is also a smoke-and-mirrors component to Boston’s offence, considering the Red Sox ranked seventh in the majors in runs despite an 11th-best 103 wRC+ and MLB’s 15th-highest home run total (186). Fortuitous sequencing played a role in the team’s success, and that’s difficult to count on going forward.
9. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs’ greatest strength is a position-player group that does everything well.
Chicago features a top-five scoring offence that impresses with its ability to get on base, hit home runs and swipe bags. Add in strong defensive metrics, and you have the National League’s best position-player group by fWAR (31.1).
The pitching side is more difficult to trust.
Chicago sports a respectable ERA (3.81), but its pitching staff struggles to miss bats (27th-ranked K/9) and keep the ball in the yard (23rd-ranked HR/9). That can be a scary combination, and the loss of star rookie Cade Horton has thinned out a rotation that lacks impact arms behind a resurgent Matthew Boyd.
10. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have fallen a long way in September, and outside of Tarik Skubal, it’s tough to see an edge the club has over the quality teams it will see in the post-season.
Detroit’s lineup has some depth, but it lacks impact bats, and its approximately average offence (102 wRC+) is matched by middle-of-the-pack defence (+3 FRV) and MLB’s 17th-best ERA (3.97).
This is a team that lacks glaring holes, and that’s often an underrated road to success, but it feels like there’s a lack of juice here. Skubal-plus-competence could be enough to win a wild-card series, especially against a low-scoring Cleveland Guardians club. Beyond that, Detroit could struggle.
11. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians are a good story, but there’s a difference between a good story and a great team.
Cleveland has a stellar bullpen, a credible rotation and José Ramírez. We’ve seen in recent weeks that it can take a team surprisingly far, but the lack of offensive firepower on this team is glaring.
The Guardians hit just .226/.296/.373 during the regular season, good for a putrid 87 wRC+. That’s a stone’s throw from what Will Wagner did for the Blue Jays this year (86 wRC+) before they shipped him out of town.
Our aim here isn’t to take potshots at Wagner for no reason. It’s just to provide a little context for a team-wide level of production that is poor enough to make them an unserious World Series contender, even if they’ve piled up some wins lately.
While Cleveland’s offence has been better in recent weeks, it’s difficult to put faith in a team with so few offensive weapons beyond Ramírez and Steven Kwan, who’s in the midst of a down year.
12. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds won four fewer games than any other playoff team and will be hamstrung by bringing a substandard position player corps into the post-season.
While Cincinnati’s offence wasn’t quite as bad as Cleveland’s during the regular season, its lineup produced an unimpressive wRC+ (92) that led to MLB’s 25th-best fWAR total (13). It’s difficult to beat elite teams with a group of hitters that wasn’t worth much more than Aaron Judge collectively.
If Cincinnati is going to make a Cinderella run, it will come on the back of a stellar pitching staff headlined by the front of its rotation: ace fireballer Hunter Greene and a duo of breakout starters in Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo . The Reds enter the playoffs with MLB’s third-best group of pitchers by fWAR (19.4), but that value is weighted towards their starters.
The bullpen is approximately average across the board and could be tired as the playoffs begin. Each of the Reds’ top four leverage relievers (Emilio Pagán, Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips) pitched at least four times in the final six days of the regular season.
