TORONTO — History says the Toronto Blue Jays are in trouble.
MLB teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven post-season series have advanced 78 of 93 times, or nearly 84 per cent of the time. There are exceptions, like the 2023 Diamondbacks and the 2004 Red Sox, but roughly five out of every six teams in this position never come back.
The specifics of this series reinforce the notion that the odds are stacked against the Blue Jays, as the Seattle Mariners are now heading home with former all-stars George Kirby, Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo lined up to pitch at T-Mobile Park. Any advantage the Blue Jays had when this series began has now been lost.
“We don’t like the position that we are in right now, but they’ve been playing great baseball, too,” said Vladimir Guerrero Jr. through interpreter Hector Lebron. “The only thing we can do is just get better, go to Seattle and try to win some games somehow.”
Facing and overcoming adversity is nothing new for a Blue Jays team that had 49 comeback wins in 2025. Now they have no choice but to make another comeback – and soon.
“Always going to have optimism about this team,” said Blue Jays manager John Schneider. “We’ve got to figure out a way to limit damage, one; and then, two, generate more offence.”
To make that a reality, they have lots of work ahead:
More offence
In Game 1, the Blue Jays scored just one run on two hits, with no hits after the second inning. And while Game 2 was better, the offensive showing was still underwhelming. The Blue Jays scored just three runs on six hits, half of which came from Nathan Lukes.
The Mariners have now out-homered the Blue Jays 4-1 in the series, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Addison Barger, Daulton Varsho and Andres Gimenez are all hitless in the ALCS.
“Obviously, we need to get better offensively,” Guerrero Jr. said. “For example, myself, I had big at-bats there and couldn’t come through.”
All season, the Blue Jays have prided themselves on their offensive depth. To get back into the series against Seattle, they’ll need a well-rounded offensive effort at a time that Anthony Santander (lower back tightness) was scratched from the starting lineup and Bo Bichette (knee) isn’t on the roster.
“Do what we’ve done all year,” Schneider said. “Slug hasn’t been there for us, has been there for them, and you never know when it’s going to turn. They’ve got a good pitching staff. They’re featuring some good stuff.
“I want these guys to continue to feel like they’re on the attack, you know what I mean? It’s what we’ve done this entire season. Hopefully, the luck turns, and hopefully the slug shows up when we get there.”
Better relief pitching
If you’re not hitting, you have to do the little things well, but the Blue Jays have been falling short when it comes to pitching and defence. In particular, their relievers have struggled, widening deficits late in games.
In the fifth inning of Game 2, Louis Varland allowed his third homer of the post-season, a three-run shot by Jorge Polanco. Varland has pitched in all six playoff games the Blue Jays have played, touching triple digits with his fastball and shutting down some elite hitters, but the home runs have been extremely costly.
“Momentum can swing quickly,” Schneider said. “Louis has got great stuff. He’s got electric stuff. You still have to execute, no matter how hard you’re throwing.”
But even once Varland exited, three more relievers allowed runs Monday, pushing the game out of reach. Mason Fluharty allowed one earned run, Braydon Fisher allowed two more and Yariel Rodriguez walked three hitters on his way to Seattle’s final run.
“I’m gonna continue to trust them,” Schneider said. “Sometimes bullpens can be volatile … and the first two games, it hasn’t worked out.”
Better defence
Varsho is a Gold Glove winner who’s considered among the game’s best defensive outfielders, but his routes were uncharacteristically indirect Monday.
With two out in the third inning, he got a late jump on an Eugenio Suarez fly ball before recovering and making a diving catch. Three innings later, Mitch Garver hit a ball off the centre field wall, and while plays that difficult are far from automatic, it’s a ball Varsho might have caught if he didn’t take a circuitous route.
“Kind of a weird read,” Schneider said. “Maybe it was the wind, a little chilly. That’s a ball Varsh usually catches with his eyes closed. Garver hit it pretty well, but whenever a ball goes up centre field and it doesn’t leave the park, I think Varsh is going to catch it. Just kind of a little bit of a weird route, which is the last thing you think of when it goes up to him.”
Meanwhile, on the infield, Andres Gimenez made a throwing error to lead off the fifth inning. All season, the Blue Jays have been an elite defensive team, ranking fourth among all MLB teams with 51 defensive runs saved, but they looked out of sorts Monday, and it cost them.
Yes, it’s a small sample. Big picture, there’s no doubt the Blue Jays are better than this. But the playoffs are decided based on small samples, so the Blue Jays must find a way to play their best baseball immediately or they’ll soon run out of chances to prove they belong on the sport’s biggest stage.
