Everything you need to know to get caught up with the Maple Leafs

If, like me, you are both a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays and also someone who typically follows what’s going on with the Toronto Maple Leafs, then I recognize your attention has been fairly monopolized by the former.

The Blue Jays have been an inspiration. They battled through injuries to show up for their teammates in key moments. They had surprising players become important by taking advantage of elevated opportunities throughout the season. They committed to great defending, they were positively bursting with intangibles and camaraderie, and their greatest players played great when it mattered most.

You may have felt me drift into more “lessons the Leafs can take from the Blue Jays” there, because if you’ve complained about the hockey club’s shortcomings in the past, you’ll intrinsically recognize what’s happening in the above paragraph.

But today isn’t about what the Leafs should do, or what they need to improve upon. Today is recognizing that most of us have been focused on those superb Jays, and need a little help getting caught up with the Leafs. It’s about what the Leafs are through 12 games, what they’ve done, and what you need to know to catch up with them for the rest of the way.

Below is me turning on the Leafs treadmill to a walking speed for you, then slowly turning it up so you can get into the rhythm of the season.

What you need to know about the Toronto Maple Leafs…

Auston Matthews hasn’t been himself, but might be coming around?

It’s been a weird start to the year for Matthews. He’s saying he’s healthy, and we’ve seen him over nine seasons have massive success without Mitch Marner, his most common running mate over that time. And so you’d expect Matthews to be very good, but he hasn’t looked dominant yet at all.

His takeaways are down, his hits are down, and he’s averaging under a point per game, with just one multi-point game so far this season.

But if you sort the table for goals he’s nibbling the edges of the top-25 with six, and he’s logged four shots fewer than league leader Nathan MacKinnon, who’s played one more game. Matthews has 16 shots over his past three games, and he’s had more moments where he looks strong and threatening.

He hasn’t skated with his “snowball picking up speed down a hill” vibe, but on Saturday night there was noticeably more life in his stride.

There’s a lot to sort out with the lines, but if Matthews is indeed starting to come on strong – which his laser-wrister over Flyers goalie Dan Vladar hinted at – that would be big news for the Leafs. They need him to get hot, and for his line to control play.

Their goaltending hasn’t been what anybody expected

On the first day of training camp, the Leafs lost Joseph Woll to “family reasons.” He was away from the team for a month, but is back now, and working towards game action. That’s a good thing for a team that hasn’t got much out of its back-up starts this season so far (despite winning two of three, Cayden Primeau has struggled).

Their combined team save percentage is 31^st in the league at even strength (.886), which obviously isn’t great. It hasn’t helped that the team is 31^st in “shots against that are screened” (one out of every five shots are screens), and that’s with a D-corps that’s supposed to be good at clearing those areas. Anthony Stolarz called them out at one point, and has since worked to get his own game back to where he knows it can be.

Last game against Philadelphia, Stolarz was rock solid, which could be something to build on.

Chris Tanev could be out a while

The team’s best defensive defenceman missed some games with a concussion, came back 12 days later, and was concussed so badly he needed to be stretchered off against Philadelphia. Our best wishes are with one of the team’s true heart-and-soul guys. You’ll be getting a steady run of the big, shot-happy Phillippe Myers for the next month or so.

John Tavares has been awesome

Six goals and 16 points in 12 games (top-15 in the league) while never going more than two games without a point, and yet somehow his scoring is secondary to his overall play. He’s been hounding the puck on the forecheck and helping drive his line in a way that’s been a massive bonus for the Leafs, particularly as Matthews starts slow and William Nylander has been injured.

It’s been a very … captain-like showing, you might say.

Nick Robertson shouldn’t go anywhere

Maybe a week or so ago, Craig Simpson came on Real Kyper and Bourne and basically said “If the Leafs are afraid of trading Robertson and having him blow up somewhere else, maybe they should give him a try alongside Matthews where they need a right winger?”

Since then he’s tallied five points in four games (back-to-back multi-point efforts), and has played an average of about 15 minutes per night.

I hate to keep beating this drum, but Nick Robertson can score, and every team needs that.

We’re back on the Easton Cowan Express

This year I have gone on TV and said “Easton Cowan should start on the team” as well as “Cowan just isn’t physically ready,” and I’m now ready to go back to “Easton Cowan is ready and they should keep him.” Sorry to flip-flop, but I calls ‘em as I sees ‘em, and his play has vacillated greatly in the early going as you’d expect from a young talent.

With enough time it’s clear Cowan is a puck hound with offensive sense, so while there are times he’s just physically overmatched, it’s like an aggressive little dog hanging on the ankle of some lazy mastiff – he can be effective annoying people out there with his tenacity.

And honestly, the Leafs lack guys with offensive hockey sense and playmaking, which Cowan can do, too. As he gets more comfortable, I think they’ve got a guy who won’t just hang on, but can make a difference offensively. If he stays in the lineup I bet he can get up into the 30-to-40 point window, and at some point, get some power play time. He works and can dish, which are a couple characteristics Toronto could sorely use.

The new guys are starting to find their footing

Nic Roy was given almost no opportunity out of the gate (which was strange), but his ice time is up from the early weeks of 10-13 minutes per night, to north of 16 in three of the past four games. They’ll need him if they’re going to do anything significant this year.

Matias Maccelli has points in three of his past four games, and it’s getting clearer what success could look like for him. He has to win loose pucks with tenacity, and make the right play with the puck when it’s there, combined with the odd dish most other players just can’t make. That’s got to be his ‘plus’ skill, where he finds a guy in a spot that gets the Leafs a bonus look here and there.

There’s a useful spot for him if he can turn an effective third line into one that produces the odd goal.

Dakota Joshua is getting more ice time of late, too, and at least running into more people out there. Part of that inspiration could be from the newly added Sammy Blais, who has a goal and 10 hits in two games, to go with a few great puck touches. There’s real internal competition in the bottom six this year.

The power play isn’t scoring

What’s funny is, the underlying numbers aren’t all that bad – they’re getting similar shots and high danger shots (actually more of the latter) compared to their power play last year.

But Morgan Rielly just isn’t elite at the QB position, and right now the team is 30^th in “shots taken that land on net” on the power play, meaning they’re not creating enough clean looks.

They’re a little worse at getting set up compared to last year (though they weren’t great there last year anyway), but what I like is that they’re third in the league in offensive zone rebounds while on the power play, and third in the league in pucks recovered off shot attempts (according to Sportlogiq). They can get it back.

And they should be good at that, right? They have big, strong, players in Matthew Knies, Matthews, Tavares, and Nylander.

The concern is that Matthews has zero high danger attempts on the PP this season, and Nylander hardly has any shots there at all. The Leafs need to find a way to get pucks to those sticks for shots, so they can take advantage of their best shooters and their ability to recover pucks.

More goals than expected, both ways

The Leafs are seventh in the league at 5-on-5 “expected goals for,” which is pretty good.

But they have the highest “actual goals to expected” number, which means they’re actually second in the NHL at 5-on-5 goals to only Colorado. The puck is going in the net a lot for them right now, as their 5-on-5 goal total is 31.

The Leafs are 17^th in 5-on-5 “expected goals against,” which leaves a little to be desired.

But it hurts that they’re 31^st in “actual goals to expected,” which means only St. Louis has given up more goals against at 5-on-5. The Leafs have given up 32.

This “reality doesn’t line up with expectations” thing is a trend on special teams, too. They score way fewer goals than expected on the power play (31^st in “actual to expected”), and they give up way fewer than they should on the PK (sixth in “actual to expected”).

The greater point here is probably just that hockey is weird, and if you’ve been betting the “over” on the Leafs, it’s probably not the worst time to think about doing the opposite in the weeks ahead.

Are there real reasons for these numbers? Poor finishing? Poor goaltending, except on the PK? Possibly, but not to this degree.

Stock down

Bobby McMann was elevated in the lineup the past few weeks and put up zero points in eight games. He had his ice time cut last game, and will possibly be a scratch on Monday night, though that’s not confirmed.

There’s a thing in business called the Peter Principle, which is essentially that everyone in a business gets promoted up the ladder until they’re finally given a job that’s above their ability and only then do they stop climbing, leaving most organizations – in theory! – with a staff of people under-qualified for their jobs.

Well, promotions happen quickly in hockey, but you can undo those promotions with the swipe of a dry-erase marker, and it’s becoming clear McMann isn’t going to be someone who should ride on the top-line after his recent showing, and his playoffs last year. With less pressure against softer matchups farther down the lineup, it seems like he can do more damage. But it’s still good to have given him run in the top-six, because you get real answers to your questions. Maybe when he’s red hot, he can get a short bump back up.

Positive signs

Early on this season, the Leafs rarely had the puck. They got dominated in offensive zone time, offensive zone possession time, shot attempts, you name it. But they’ve gone 3-1 over their past four, are getting way better at hanging on to the puck down low, and the numbers have been coming back in their favour.

The competition hasn’t been super strong, but it wasn’t earlier in the season either, so it’s still good news. With a change in their possession numbers for the better, Nylander getting healthy, Steven Lorentz back by mid-week, and Scott Laughton getting healthy, the team should only get stronger.

We thought it would take time for the Leafs to get on track this season, and at times it has looked ugly. But this is what the early season is for, guessing and testing, trial and errors.

As long as you’re finding answers you’re doing something right, and for the first time this season, it feels like the Leafs have successfully started that process.