About a month ago, I took my first crack at Team Canada’s Olympic hockey roster, packaging players into tiers based on how likely they were to make the team.
But in the NHL world, a lot changes in a month.
Hot starts from Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard stretched into hot quarter-seasons, to the point where the conclusion is not that they’re hot, but that they’re now sustainably elite, which changes the math.
Mark Scheifele is top 10 in NHL scoring.
Nick Suzuki has developed into a Selke Trophy-worthy two-way centre to go with his offensive game, making him awfully tough to pass up. And physical force Tom Wilson is at nearly a point-per-game pace while handling about 20 minutes of ice time per game, a career high.
So yeah, things are crowded. Let’s talk through it.
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I’m going to do things differently this time, in that I’ll give you my roster up front, followed by my explanations. Maybe it’s less dramatic, but I think it’s important to see the greater changes at once.
I’ve made what ended up being relatively minor tweaks to their 4 Nations roster up front, pulling out three of the 13 forwards who won it, and adding four new names (you take one more forward to the Olympics, for a total of 14). In a world where I got a vote, the same most-important 10 forwards will still be the core of the group, and from there I need to explain myself. It got really, really hard, as I’m sure it is right now for Canada’s management team.
So the forwards on my team:
Sam Reinhart – Sidney Crosby – Nathan MacKinnon
Macklin Celebrini – Connor McDavid – Mitch Marner
Brad Marchand – Brayden Point – Mark Scheifele
Mark Stone – Nick Suzuki – Tom Wilson
Next up: Brandon Hagel, Sam Bennett
Out: Travis Konecny, Anthony Cirelli, Seth Jarvis
Inevitably in: Connor Bedard
I started writing this article intending to have Bedard in. How do you deny him, right? He’s currently fourth in NHL scoring, red hot, and has taken the predicted step from great player to superstar. He’s arrived and you want him to be a part of all the international hockey that’s planned going forward, which should happen every two years now.
But…
…these are not development events. These are win-now events, and points aren’t all that matter. You’re building a team, so you have to do some deeper thinking as you start to build the lineup.
For one, there are untouchables: Crosby, MacKinnon, Reinhart, McDavid, Point, these guys have already been named to the team. Marner is off to a decent enough start, and played a part in two big goals in the 4 Nations final, so he’s likely going to be there. Marchand is fifth in the league in goals, 21st in points and a pure winner, so they’ll be taking him. As you see, it starts to fill up fast. That’s seven guys already.
Celebrini is ahead of Bedard for his 200-foot play, so there’s eight. And then you start to look at other roles, right?
Hagel is fresh off a 90-point season, and brings a feistiness and competitiveness that defines Canadian hockey. He also kills 2:38 of penalties per game, second among Canadian 4 Nations forwards behind Cirelli. You need to consider all 60 minutes.
And at some point, you can’t just have a pile of puck handlers against the best defenders in the world. You need some guys who go hard to the blue paint and create space for the skill, and you need some forecheckers who can get those skill guys the puck.
Well, killing 2:02 per game, and checking all those other boxes, is giant human and Stanley Cup champion Tom Wilson. When we’re talking about game states, there’s a variety of them where Wilson’s number would make sense to get called, as evidenced on Wednesday night when he blocked a shot at 5-on-6 and put home the empty-netter. He can plow a path that makes everyone else’s work easier.
Hey, remember the 2-2 goal the Canadians scored, when Bennett put it over Connor Hellebuyck’s shoulder? That was months before he won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the league’s best performing player on the biggest stage. I know he’s having a terrible start this year, but you’re not leaving that guy off given his very recent history.
The other two new guys I’ve got there are Suzuki, who’s currently one of the front-runners for the Selke Trophy. Yes, it’s possible for Bedard to move ahead of him, but right now Suzuki feels like such a reliable two-way centre who’s also shown the ability to step up in big games, that I think the staff would have more trust in him.
The last name is Scheifele. One of the league’s top scorers, and 11 points in 11 playoff games last year. He’s a leader, a fierce competitor, he’s versatile and I just think he can play whatever role is asked of him and would thrive alongside great players.
Now, the last conversation I think you have to have is about health, and Mark Stone. The guy just cannot stay healthy, and how much hockey do you need him to have played to say he’s good to go for the Olympics? His 13 points in six games to start the season looked great, but you have to keep an eye on him. If he’s out — and I think he might be out — Bedard is in.
That’s where I sit on the Bedard debate anyway: if he’s your 15th forward as of today, as I’ve got him here, he’s probably going to the Olympics. Someone will likely be hurt, and if everyone is healthy (a good problem to have), there’s still the chance to outplay one of these players I’ve named.
If Bedard pulls away in points, it’s possible he’ll pass Suzuki on the “guy you have to take” list, but he could play his way ahead of Scheifele too. Wilson is no lock either. It’s tough to see a world where Bedard plays his way ahead of the rest of the players I’ve included, but between Suzuki, Wilson and Scheifele — and the mentioned injuries — it seems really likely Bedard will end up on Team Canada.
That’s an awful lot of words based around Bedard, but he’s also the flashlight that illuminates the status of all their forwards.
To even get to a world where you take four new forwards, I had to take three out and all of them are pretty darn good hockey players.
Konecny is unlikely to go. He wasn’t effective in the 4 Nations and is just having an OK year so far.
The other two are tougher questions. Cirelli is a proven winner, and does all the things you’ve just heard me say about game states. He’s Canada’s best penalty-killing forward, a good face-off man, an end-of-game protect-the-lead type who’s won every major trophy hockey has to offer save for Olympic gold. He’s a pure winner, and Jon Cooper trusts him.
This year though, Cirelli’s got 12 points in 16 games and plays 18:35 a night. He’s just not moving the needle in a way that says “You have to take this guy to the Olympics.” But it’s tough to see his coach not wanting him there.
The next guy was a surprise pick at 4 Nations, Seth Jarvis. I love this player, and the person. He’s fast and competitive and was awfully close to breaking through at the 4 Nations, though it didn’t quite come for him.
But with 17 points in 20 games right now, he’s not exactly undeniable for his offence (not with Bedard sitting on the outside looking in with nearly 30 points), and he’s not the Canes’ most essential guy on defence or anything. He’s a great player, but we’re dealing with a lot of great players here.
I haven’t even mentioned a guy like Bo Horvat, who’s on absolute fire this year, and kills penalties, and has been a huge part of the Islanders’ success. I haven’t mentioned John Tavares, who’s ninth in league scoring, wins faceoffs, and is dying for a chance to be part of the Canadian contingent. Wyatt Johnston has earned some mention in these chats too.
Up front, Canada’s in a really good spot. It has to be the toughest hockey team in the world to make, and you could build it a variety of ways without any of them being outright wrong. I’ve shown my work here, and I’m curious if it differs much from how Team Canada’s brass is thinking.
Check back in next week, when I’ll look at defence and goalies. Can I interest you in Evan Bouchard or Matthew Schaefer? We’ll discuss.
