For as parity-driven as the NFL claims to be, the playoff picture in the AFC has been fairly predictable over the past five seasons.
Since 2020, the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are the only four teams to have advanced to an AFC conference championship game.
Not since the Tennessee Titans made it in the 2019 season has it been any two teams other than those four.
So, predictably, when the pre-season Super Bowl predictions came out, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who didn’t have their AFC representative come from that group.
But fast forward to Week 13, and the AFC playoff picture has been flipped on its head. If the season ended today, the Chiefs, Ravens and Bengals would all miss the playoffs entirely, while the Bills would sneak in as the No. 7 seed.
Of course, there is still plenty of football to be played, but all four teams are up against it.
The 6-6 Chiefs lost another one-score game on American Thanksgiving, and pretty much have to win out to have any chance at the post-season.
Baltimore lost to the Bengals on Thursday to fall out of the AFC North lead, and there are some concerning signs about the play of Lamar Jackson.
Despite the win and the return of Joe Burrow, the Bengals are still just 4-8 and also need to run the table to have any shot.
And the Bills are coming off a worrying loss to the Houston Texans, where Josh Allen was sacked eight times and threw two interceptions.
It’s gut-check time for all four teams. Otherwise, the AFC playoff picture is going to look very different this season.
Here are some key storylines to watch in Week 13, led by a huge game for one of the aforementioned four teams.
Bills look to right the ship vs. Steelers
For a team that’s currently in a playoff spot, things are far from sunshine and rainbows in Buffalo right now.
The loss to the Texans in Week 12 was quite a wake-up call and exposed a lot of the weaknesses that have plagued the Bills all season.
Outside of running back James Cook, the supporting cast around Allen has left much to be desired in 2025.
With no elite pass-catching options, Allen has been forced to try and make something out of nothing far more than we saw last season in his MVP campaign.
He’s one of the few quarterbacks in the league who can actually pull that off, but even for him, it’s not exactly a sustainable solution long-term.
Partly because he’s had to force the issue, Allen has 11 turnovers (nine interceptions, two fumbles) through 11 games — three more than he had all of last season.
The Bills as a whole have three straight games with three turnovers, a big reason why they’re 1-2 over that stretch.
It’s something that needs to be addressed, starting with a visit to Pittsburgh this Sunday against a team tied for second in takeaways this season with 20.
The Steelers are also in a bit of a funk, having lost four of their past six and watched their AFC North lead dwindle to just a half-game over the Ravens.
And with the return of Aaron Rodgers after a one-game absence, and both starting tackles already ruled out for the game, it won’t exactly be an easy get-right spot for the Bills.
But in a tight AFC playoff race, and games against the Philadelphia Eagles and AFC East-leading New England Patriots still on the schedule, though it’s not mathematically a must-win game for Buffalo, it sure feels like one.
“We understand where we’re at,” Josh Allen said this week. “At the same time, we have full confidence in ourselves. But ultimately, it comes down to executing on game days. We’ve had some good, we’ve had some bad throughout the year.”
Surging Texans face Colts in pivotal AFC South clash
The Texans are sure starting to feel like the team that no AFC squad wants to see in the playoffs.
They aren’t in a playoff spot right now, but at 6-5 after three straight wins on the back of a dominant defence, the Texans are right back in the race for not only a post-season berth, but an AFC South division title.
Sunday’s first of two remaining matchups against the division-leading Indianapolis Colts is a massive opportunity for the Texans, especially when you consider some shaky play from Daniel Jones and co. over the past few weeks.
The Colts have lost two of their past three games after a 7-1 start to the season.
A once dominant Indianapolis offence has looked shaky as of late, especially in crunch time against the Chiefs last week. Jones and the Colts took a 20-9 lead into the fourth quarter, but then ran just 12 offensive plays and didn’t pick up a single first down the rest of the way in what ended as a 23-20 OT loss.
It won’t get any easier on Sunday, as they take on a Texans D that ranks first in the NFL by allowing 264.3 yards a game and second in scoring defence at 16.5 points per game.
The Texans will also get a boost on the offensive side of the ball, as starting QB C.J. Stroud will play for the first time since missing the last three games with a concussion.
Everything is trending the right way for Houston, but a loss on Sunday would see all that momentum come to an abrupt halt and put them on the outside looking in at the AFC playoff picture.
Sam Darnold vs. McCarthy-less Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings’ decision to put their faith in second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy has backfired in a major way so far.
Not only has the Michigan product looked unplayable over the past few weeks, but the quarterback Minnesota chose McCarthy over is thriving with his new team.
Sam Darnold led the Vikings to a 14-3 record last year, but with McCarthy waiting in the wings after a season-ending injury, Minnesota opted to let Darnold walk in free agency.
So far, Darnold has made that decision look like a foolish one, as he’s led the Seattle Seahawks to an 8-3 record and has his team looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Meanwhile, at 4-7, the Super Bowl is the last thing on the mind of Vikings fans. McCarthy has been so bad over his past few games, many have already been calling for his benching in favour of an undrafted rookie.
And although it was not an official benching, with McCarthy out this Sunday due to a concussion, they’ll get their wish as Max Brosmer will start against the Seahawks.
It will be a tough test for Brosmer against a ferocious Seattle defence, but if he looks even somewhat competent, the quarterback controversy in Minnesota is going to heat up in a major way.
More likely, however, is that Sunday will be a long day for Vikings fans as they watch their former QB remind them of what could’ve been.
Game to watch: San Francisco 49ers (8-4) @ Cleveland Browns (3-8) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
For a 3-8 team, the Browns have become must-watch TV over the past few weeks.
And no, not just because they are now starting Shedeur Sanders at QB.
It’s not a stretch to say Browns star Myles Garrett is putting together one of the best seasons by a defender of all time.
With three sacks last week to bring his total to 18, Garrett set the Browns franchise record for sacks in the season.
He has the second-most quarterback takedowns through 11 games in NFL history since sacks became an official stat in 1982.
With six games remaining, Garrett is on pace to smash the NFL’s single-season sack record (22.5).
His first chance to get closer to the record comes Sunday against a good 49ers team right in the thick of the NFC playoff race.
On a Sunday slate lacking in marquee matchups, Garrett chasing history should be appointment viewing.
Forrest’s favourites (Season record: 17-16 — All odds courtesy of BetMGM):
Bills @ Steelers — Pick: Bills -3: It hasn’t looked pretty for the Bills lately, but they still have Josh Allen, and we expect him to will his team to a big victory on Sunday.
49ers @ Browns — Pick: Browns +5: 49ers QB Brock Purdy is coming off a game in which he threw three interceptions, and now has to face the Browns and Garrett. Cleveland might not win, but its defence should be able to keep it a close game.
Texans @ Colts— Pick: Texans +3.5: With all the momentum the Texans are bringing into this one, the points are too juicy to pass up.
Full Week 13 schedule (All times ET)
Thursday, Nov. 27
Green Bay 31, Detroit 24
Dallas 31, Chiefs 28
Cincinnati 32, Baltimore 14
Friday, Nov. 28
Chicago 24, Philadelphia 15
Sunday, Nov. 30
San Francisco at Cleveland, 1 p.m.
Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1 p.m.
Houston at Indianapolis, 1 p.m.
Arizona at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m.
New Orleans at Miami, 1 p.m.
Atlanta at NY Jets, 1 p.m.
LA Rams at Carolina, 1 p.m.
Minnesota at Seattle, 4:05 p.m.
Las Vegas at LA Chargers, 4:25 p.m.
Buffalo at Pittsburgh, 4:25 p.m.
Denver at Washington, 8:20 p.m.
Monday, Dec. 1
NY Giants at New England, 8:15 p.m.
