Sunday Overreactions: Can Avalanche shatter all-time points record?

The Colorado Avalanche are the class of the NHL right now. Full stop. They are a force of nature, a wagon and an immovable object, all rolled into one.

Colorado has lapped the majority of the NHL, losing just once in regulation in 25 games. The Avs recently posted three straight shutouts and a 10-game winning streak, creating even more distance between them and the rest of the league in the standings. They also arguably boast two of the best five players in the world in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, to go along with two goalies they really trust.

If they do have a weakness, nobody has found it yet.

Avalanche will finish season with most points ever

It’s challenging to quantify the best team for an individual season across eras, since the way the standings were tabulated wasn’t always equal. The loser point was introduced during the 1999-2000 season and in the wake of the lockout, the shootout came along, leading to even more games in which three total points are awarded, a luxury teams in the 1970s, 80s and 90s didn’t have. That said, three of the top four seasons all time in total points came from teams outside of the loser point window anyway. The 1976-77 (132 points) and 1977-78 (129 points) Montreal Canadiens as well as the 1995-96 (131 points) Detroit Red Wings deserve a lot of praise for posting their respective marks without the benefit of a loser point.

More recently, the Tampa Bay Lightning dominated the 2018-19 campaign with 62 wins, tying for the second-most victories ever. But the 2022-23 Boston Bruins notched a total of 135 points, something that looked like it may never be beaten. The Avalanche, though, appear to be just as dominant as Boston was, currently sitting with a plus-48 goal differential when no other team is better than plus-19. The Avs have at least given themselves a shot at overtaking that incredible year from the Bruins with their torrid start.

Overreaction? No

After the 25-game mark for the Bruins a few years ago, they sat at 21-3-1, while the Avs are currently at 18-1-6 at the same point in their season. The Avalanche aren’t on pace for as many wins as the Bruins had, but they are trending towards more total points because they’ve only lost once in regulation up to this point. This puts the Avs at a 138-point pace, which would eclipse the Bruins by three.

Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Avalanche are going to get there as it’s still very early in the season, but there are a number of signs pointing toward them keeping up this pace. Much like the Bruins, the Avs have two goalies playing at a high level in Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood, who have powered Colorado to the best team save percentage in the NHL at .921. Boston also finished first in save percentage during the 2022-23 campaign — the sky’s the limit when you’re getting saves consistently.

The Avs rank first in scoring at the moment, whereas the Bruins finished second during their record-setting campaign. Only one team in the past 30 years (the 2021-22 Florida Panthers) has averaged more than four goals per game over an 82-game season, and the Avalanche currently sit at 4.12. That’s about half a goal more than the next-closest team.

If there’s one thing that’s working against Colorado it could be the schedule. In an Olympic year, there’s going to be a lot of hockey being played in a condensed amount of time, which could lead to key injuries and perhaps lend itself to more of an opportunity for an off night here and there. Still, if there’s anyone that’s going to do everything in his power to not let that happen, it’s MacKinnon. If this team can stay healthy enough, it’ll have every opportunity to finish as the greatest regular-season team in history.

Mitch Marner won’t score more than a point per game this season

The fit between Marner and the Vegas Golden Knights has been really good so far, but maybe not great. Not just yet anyway.

Marner has 25 points in 25 games, though he’s only scored five times. That puts him on pace for just 16 goals and 82 points, which would be considered an excellent season for many, though well below Marner’s standards. The 28-year-old scored at a 100-point pace over the past three seasons and averaged 27 goals per year over that stretch. There was a case that Marner’s totals might take a slight dip in Vegas considering he wouldn’t be playing with a great goal scorer in Auston Matthews anymore and the fact that the Golden Knights were much deeper up front than the Toronto Maple Leafs, so they wouldn’t need to lean on Marner as heavily. But that hasn’t been so. Marner’s even-strength ice time is very similar to last season, and he’s getting over a minute more of power-play time per game. Is it possible Marner won’t score more than 82 points in his first season with Vegas?

Overreaction? Yes

It’s still early and it takes time for players — even elite ones like Marner — to acclimate to a new team. It’s also worth pointing out he hasn’t spent much time with Jack Eichel at even strength, mostly sitting on the second line when Mark Stone was injured. Stone is the key here and someone that really ignites the Vegas engine and helps balance out the forward group. Now that he’s back, expect him to give the power play a boost and help Marner generate offence while playing together. It’s already starting to pay dividends, as Marner has four points in three games since Stone has returned.

It’s also worth pointing out all Marner’s underlying numbers are strong and he’s only shooting 9.3 per cent. That’s well below his career average, so expect the puck to start going in for him more regularly soon. Marner may not get back to a 100-point pace this season, but it’d be surprising if he only finished with a point per game. It would just take a slight bump in production for him to get close to the 90-point mark.

Steven Stamkos going back to Tampa makes some sense

OK, hear me out on this one.

The Nashville Predators have really struggled this season and at some point, they are likely to start selling. Front and centre to that sale could be Steven Stamkos, who despite picking it up a bit lately, still only has nine points in 25 games. Stamkos simply hasn’t looked the same since leaving Tampa Bay and one could argue it was a mistake to move on from the Lightning. A reunion wouldn’t be easy based on Stamkos’ contract, but it could make a lot of sense for all sides. If the Lightning could get Stamkos producing the way he did in his final season there, it would be a huge boost as they try to claim the Atlantic Division.

Overreaction? No

Tampa Bay set a precedent for this type of move when it brought back Ryan McDonagh from Nashville in 2024. Stamkos was a perfect fit for the Lightning’s system and excelled on the power play there, notching 39 of his 81 points on the man advantage two seasons ago. It wouldn’t take much to slot him back in and let him rip one-timers from Nikita Kucherov again. Stamkos should still be able to do that very effectively as he ages.

As for the contract, Stamkos is owed $8 million per year for the next two seasons, so that is a bit of a complication. If Nashville ate a bit of the deal, though, and took back someone like Oliver Bjorkstrand, plus other assets, the two sides could make it work. With the cap rising and if the Lightning could get Stamkos’ number down slightly, Stamkos shouldn’t be too much of a burden for the Lightning to take on if they are trying to extend their competitive window as long as possible.

It wouldn’t be a simple deal by any means, but it definitely could make some sense.

Morgan Geekie has a shot at 50 goals

Is there a quieter goal scorer than Geekie? The Boston Bruins forward is tied with MacKinnon for the league lead in goals with 20 as he continues his incredible pace to start the year. If you think Geekie is just on an early-season heater, consider he now boasts a whopping 43 goals in his past 65 games dating back to last season. Geekie is one of the main reasons the Bruins are hanging around in the playoff picture after entering with minimal expectations. He gets a chance to play with David Pastrnak on the power play and it is starting to seem like Geekie has a real shot at 50 goals.

Overreaction? Yes

Geekie is scoring at a 60-goal pace right now, but that is almost certainly going to come down. He’s currently shooting nearly 29 per cent, with his career average sitting at 16 per cent. At some point that’s going to normalize and Geekie is likely going to go through a cold streak or two. For instance, he went through a stretch last season where he tallied just one goal in 18 games. Plus, the Bruins as a whole may slow down as the season wears on. Credit to them for a great start, but this lineup doesn’t feel like it can sustain this level of play for 82 games. Given how hot Geekie has started, 40-45 goals certainly seems within reach, but 50 just feels a little ambitious.

Team Canada should take Jakob Chychrun to the Olympics

If Charlie Lindgren had his way, Chychrun would be going to the Olympics. The Washington Capitals goaltender advocated for his defenceman this week: “he has one of the best shots I’ve ever seen in my life… I don’t know how he wouldn’t be on an Olympic team.” It’s not Lindgren’s call, though, and cracking the Team Canada defence corps will be easier said than done.

However, Chychrun is starting to put together a solid resume for consideration. He owns 10 goals on the season and has scored in five straight games, putting him on pace for 33 this season. Chychrun has now totalled double-digit goals from the blue line for the fifth time in his career. There are very few defenders that can find the back of the net at the rate Chychrun can — you’d think there should be room for his skillset on the Team Canada back end.

Overreaction? Yes

As good as Chychrun is, it’s just hard to see who he would bump out of the pecking order on Canada’s blue line. You can take eight defenders to the Olympics, which is one more than the 4 Nations, but even still, it’s hard to imagine Chychrun leapfrogging any of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Josh Morrissey, Shea Theodore, Drew Doughty, Travis Sanheim, Colton Parayko or Thomas Harley, who joined Canada late last February as an injury replacement. A handful of those guys have Stanley Cups and boatloads of playoff experience, which could work against Chychrun. He’s never made it past the second round and only played in 19 post-season games, with nearly half of those coming in 2020.

Then there’s also other defencemen that weren’t at the 4 Nations who may have a case. Evan Bouchard, Brandon Montour and the impressive Matthew Schaefer should be considered as well. The main thing Chychrun provides is offence, and that won’t exactly be in short supply on this Canada roster. There’s still about a month before Canada must name its team and a lot can happen between now and then, including injuries, but it does seem like the odds remain stacked against Chychrun making the squad.

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