Friday’s draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup divided the 48-team field into 12 groups, so we now know which three teams Canada will face in the first round — sort of.
While the Canadians will take on Qatar and Switzerland in Vancouver in their final two group-stage matches, their opening game in Toronto will be against a yet-to-be-determined European nation.
How did Canada make out from the World Cup draw? Can it win its first-ever game at the tournament after losing all six of its previous matches when it qualified in 1986 and 2022? Do Les Rouges stand a chance of advancing to the knockout round next summer?
Let’s break down Canada’s World Cup group by looking at each of its first-round opponents (FIFA world ranking in parentheses).
GROUP B: CANADA, Europe Playoff A winner, Switzerland, Qatar
Match 1: Canada (No. 27) vs. UEFA Playoff A winner
When and where: June 12, BMO Field, Toronto
Opponent TBD
Forty-two nations have already qualified for the World Cup. The final six berths will be determined from March 26-31.
Aside from the two inter-confederation playoffs, four playoff series involving European teams will also take place. Canada’s opening match at the World Cup will be against the UEFA Playoff A winner.
Path A Playoffs
• Italy (No. 12) vs. Northern Ireland (69) in Bergamo
• Wales (32) vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina (71) in Cardiff
• Final: Wales/Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy/Northern Ireland
Analysis
It’s hard to break this down because we won’t know Canada’s opening opponent at next summer’s World Cup until March. But in a perfect world for Canada, either Wales, Northern Ireland or Bosnia and Herzegovina will emerge from the Path A playoffs.
Canada earned a 1-0 win over Wales in Swansea in an international friendly in September. Les Rouges carried the bulk of the play against the Welsh and were more dangerous going forward through the first 45 minutes before looking leggy and just seeing things out in the second half. If Canada ends up playing Wales, it will take great confidence from that result and will rightly feel it can take three points from its World Cup opener.
The same can be said if Canada ends up facing Northern Ireland or Bosnia and Herzegovina, both lower-ranked and lacking the same quality and depth of talent as next year’s co-host.
The worst-case scenario would be for Canada to play Italy, which has won four World Cups — only five-time champions Brazil has won it more often. The Azzurri have fallen on hard times, having failed to qualify for the last two World Cups, and they looked totally uninspired at Euro 2024, bowing out in the round of 16.
But this is still Italy we’re talking about — one of the true giants of world soccer that has an experienced and deep roster that is composed of players who ply their trade at some of the best clubs across Europe.
An opening match against Italy would be one of the toughest tests the Canadian men’s team will have ever faced, and even with all the struggles the Italians have experienced, they’d still have to be considered the favourites against Canada.
What hurts the Canadians is that they’ll have to wait three months to find out who their first opponent will be at the World Cup, and then they’ll have only two and a half months to prepare for them.
“We’ll be very heavily weighted on Switzerland and Qatar over the next three, four months, knowing that we’ll have to spend a lot of April and May to look at whoever our third opponent is. I don’t love that. We don’t know all three right now, but at the same time, we’ll make the best out of it. It’s the World Cup; we’ve got to be ready,” Canadian coach Jesse Marsh warned.
More from Jesse Marsch
“Without knowing who the third opponent is, it can get difficult, specifically, if Italy advances. But I think we’re excited. As I said going into the draw, we weren’t going to fear anyone, but we will respect everyone. And I think that remains with this group. I think there’s opportunity there, but some big challenges. So, we’re excited.”
Match 2: Canada vs. Qatar (No. 51)
When and where: June 18, BC Place, Vancouver
Qatar’s path to the World Cup
Qatar breezed through its opening round of the Asian qualifiers, topping its group with five wins and a draw. It found the going much tougher in the next round when it placed fourth in its group. By failing to finish in the top two, Qatar was forced to play an extra group stage — it finished first ahead of the United Arab Emirates and Oman to book its spot at the World Cup.
Analysis
Things couldn’t have gone much better for Canada by drawing Qatar, one of the lowest-ranked teams from Pot 3. In doing so, the Canadians avoided prolific Manchester City striker Erling Haaland and Norway (No. 29) and No. 34 Egypt, who were the highest-ranked sides from Pot 3.
Former Spanish national team coach Julen Lopetegui has only been at the helm of Qatar since May, but he’s already left his tactical imprint by switching between a 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1 formation. He’s stressed physical commitment and hard work off the ball, and for good reason — Qatar doesn’t have any truly dynamic attackers or game-breakers in their squad.
The Asian country has just two wins in its last six outings and has mostly played countries from within its region. Matches against top-tier nations have been few and far between for Qatar, so it had to be said that this should be an easy opponent for Canada — it’ll go into this match as the heavy favourite.
Player to watch: Almoez Ali
The Sudanese-born striker was the top scorer in the Asian qualifiers with 12 goals.
Qatar at the World Cup
Qatar’s only previous appearance came in 2022 when it became the first nation from the Middle East to host the World Cup. The Maroons didn’t do so well in their debut in the competition, losing all three games and finishing 32nd — dead last — in the tournament.
Previous matches vs. Canada
Canada and Qatar have met only once before. In preparation for hosting the last World Cup, Qatar faced Canada in a friendly on Sept. 23, 2002, in Vienna. Goals by Cyle Larin and Jonathan David inside the opening 13 minutes paced the Canadians to an easy 2-0 victory.
Jesse Marsch’s reaction
“We’ll have to do quite a bit of (scouting) on Qatar. (Julen) Lopetegui is a great coach, and I know him a bit, but really getting to know their team in and out will be important for us.”
Match 3: Canada vs. Switzerland (No. 17)
When and where: June 24, BC Place, Vancouver
Switzerland’s path to the World Cup
Switzerland booked its spot at the World Cup by finishing in first place in its group in the European qualifiers. The Swiss went unbeaten in six games (four victories) to win its section ahead of Kosovo, Slovenia and Sweden.
Analysis
Things could have been much worse for Canada. Instead of facing Croatia (No. 10) or Morocco (No. 11) — two teams they lost against at the last World Cup — the Canadians drew the 17th-ranked Swiss from Pot 2 during Friday’s draw.
Switzerland achieved World Cup qualification on the strength of its back line — it conceded just two goals and recorded four clean sheets across six qualifying matches. Fullback Ricardo Rodriguez has been a mainstay for Switzerland, helping to anchor a well-organized defence that is difficult to break down.
Manager Murat Yakin can be pretty fluid with his formation, but will likely go with a standard 4-3-3 setup next summer. There’s not a star striker on the team, so it’ll rely on scoring by committee. This could be a very interesting tactical battle with the Canadians aggressively going straight at the Swiss, using their speed and their high press to unbalance them in the group stage finale.
Player to watch: Granit Xhaka
At age 33, he remains a vital player for his country. The Swiss captain provides a steadying presence in midfield and can score the odd goal.
Switzerland at the World Cup
The Swiss will be competing in their sixth consecutive World Cup next summer, and it will be their 13th overall. Their best showing came in 1934 and 1938 when they reached the quarterfinals. Switzerland also advanced to the final eight in 1954 when it hosted the World Cup. Since then, they’ve either been knocked out in the round of 16 or failed to get out of their first-round group. In 2022 in Qatar, the Swiss lost to Portugal in the round of 16. Switzerland has never won a World Cup knockout game.
Previous matches vs. Canada
Canada earned a 3-1 win over Switzerland on May 15, 2022, in St. Gallen, in the only other previous meeting between the two nations. Canada Soccer Hall of Famers Tomasz Radzinski (a brace) and Paul Stalteri found the back of the net for the Canadians.
Jesse Marsch’s reaction
“I think they have a really balanced team. They have good players all over the pitch; a very deep team, good defenders and very explosive attackers, but they would like to possess the ball. So, in theory, this is an opportunity with the way we play, but also a challenge because they are a talented side — they’re a technical and tactical side. It’s a very good opponent, but one that we can match up with.”
Editor’s note
John Molinaro is one of the leading soccer journalists in Canada, having covered the game for over 26 years for several media outlets, including Sportsnet, CBC Sports and Sun Media. He is currently the editor-in-chief of TFC Republic, a website dedicated to in-depth coverage of Toronto FC and Canadian soccer.
