EDMONTON — With due respect to the other strong teams still scrapping it out inside the NHL bubble, it’s not a stretch to label the Tampa Bay Lightning as Stanley Cup favourites right now.
They’ve reeled off six straight wins in the second and third round of the playoffs and are out to a 2-0 lead over the New York Islanders in the Eastern Conference Final.
Tampa has arguably the best defenceman on the planet in Victor Hedman, last year’s Vezina Trophy winner in Andrei Vasilevskiy and a forward group so deep that it’s hummed through this tournament with a plus-16 goal differential even while playing without injured captain Steven Stamkos.
Pull back a little farther and look at the last six years: No franchise has won more games than the Lightning since the start of 2014-15 — regular season or playoffs — and no one has played in more post-season series.
Under championship attributes, you can check off deep, skilled, proven and experienced when it comes to this core. They’ve rightly felt they had something special going on this summer, too, particularly since dispatching Columbus during a Round 1 exorcism.
But their path through these playoffs has hit a pothole.
It’s possible, if not likely, that the Lightning will play Friday’s Game 3 down another two top-six forwards with Alex Killorn serving a one-game suspension for boarding Brock Nelson and Brayden Point’s availability very much in question after he struggled to climb back on the Lightning bench after taking an innocuous-looking hit in Game 2 and missing the final 34 minutes.
There was no official update on Point’s status Thursday, but head coach Jon Cooper didn’t sound like he was holding back any positive news. Losing the top-line centre for any meaningful amount of time would be a cruel twist, especially after his statement-making five-point performance in the opener against the Islanders.
That night, Cooper credited Point’s dominant playoffs to finally getting healthy during the COVID-19 pause. He had labral tears in both hips surgically repaired in May 2019 and missed the start of the regular season.
The worst-case scenario would be some sort of reaggravation of that injury and a long-term absence for Point. Stamkos has already been ruled out of this series, which leaves Anthony Cirelli and Yanni Gourde as Tampa’s top options down the middle beyond him. Both are excellent players, but it would further chip away at the offensive edge Tampa holds over basically any opponent.
If Point is out, the Lightning will try to lean into the grinding mentality they’ve developed with a different roster composition than in years past. When the Islanders are at their best, the games usually require that approach anyway.
“Losing somebody of Point’s stature, it’s not ideal, but we’ve played without him before and we’ve played without multiple guys before,” said Cooper. “Our job is to make sure [the players aren’t]thinking ‘Oh well, poor us’ and I don’t feel like we have a team like that. To get this far, everybody’s pulling the rope in the same direction and so I think, if anything, our guys will dig their heels in the sand a little bit harder and push forward.
“We’ve got guys waiting in the wings that are champing at the bit to get in and we’re really comfortable with that.”
The uncertainty over his status and Killorn’s suspension casts this series in a different light.
Barry Trotz wasn’t ready to concede anything after watching his team bounce back from a sluggish opener and hold the Lightning to just 21 shots in Game 2, losing on Kucherov’s buzzer-beater after a series of uncharacteristic defensive breakdowns by New York.
“This series is real close to flipping here and our game is back to where it should be,” said Trotz. “There’s a couple of areas that we know we can be a little bit better in and, if we are, then it could be the difference.”
In terms of available fill-in forwards, Tampa has dressed Carter Verhaeghe and Mitchell Stephens at times during these playoffs. Mathieu Joseph has also been taking warmups but hasn’t yet played a game.
Cooper also mentioned that he sees some of Point in Cirelli — a 23-year-old celebrated more for his elite defensive impacts. He’d likely be tabbed to jump up to Point’s spot between Kucherov and Ondrej Palat.
“Tony and Pointer have a lot of the same attributes, other than the fact that one’s right-handed and one’s left-handed,” said Cooper. “Their mental makeup and their hockey IQ and their compete are elite levels in this league.
“Tony’s … another gamer and guys love playing with him and that’s always the greatest compliment you can have as a player.”
There is no such thing as an easy road to the Stanley Cup and the Lightning understand as well as any organization how fine the line can be between the ultimate success and heartbreak.
Teams usually need some good bounces and good fortune on their way to etching their names in silver. They also need to push through any challenges or roadblocks dropped in front of them.
