The Toronto Raptors are at risk of ending 2025 the same way they started it.
Friday’s 138-117 loss to the Washington Wizards looked all too similar to the games that defined January through April, where the Raptors battled teams at the bottom of the standings without a few key players each night. While the answer in 2024-25 was that a shorthanded Raptors team wasn’t bad enough to out-race truly bad teams to the bottom, the answer of late is that the 2025-26 Raptors are not good enough to assume victory against those same dregs, especially when down a few bodies.
The key difference, of course, is that the Raptors want to be winning this year. RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl are legitimately injured, and the hope entering the year was that there was enough depth – new additions, young players who got expanded developmental opportunity last season, a healthy Brandon Ingram – to withstand the lighter parts of the schedule at less than 100 per cent. A projection of, say, 44 wins for the team (hello) included a belief they’d be deep, tough, and effortful enough to win games like Friday’s.
The Raptors aren’t there yet.
Sure, it’s the NBA, and anyone can beat anyone on a given night, but the Wizards loss caps what’s been a sobering month in which they’re 4-9 with a bottom-10 net rating and the league’s worst offence. The defence on Friday looked even shakier, as a young (and in some spots, old!) Wizards team won the hustle battle often and found a higher gear scrambling and helping defensively on key possessions. Once a hole was dug, the league’s worst fourth-quarter offence over the last few weeks simply couldn’t climb back out.
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Things don’t get easier from here. A five-game homestand begins Sunday, with the Warriors, Magic, Nuggets, and Hawks (twice) in town. That’s a really fun stretch if you were gifted tickets at the holidays; it’s less fun a stretch if you’re a team trying to straighten the car during an icy skid.
Of course, if you’re getting 20-pieced by the Wizards, there’s no such thing as a soft spot on the schedule right now.
Here are some other notes and observations from the game.
• Collin Murray-Boyles missed the game due to an illness. He was originally questionable, then listed as available, then a late scratch after all.
Scottie Barnes was also questionable with an illness, ultimately playing through it, then leaving briefly with left hip soreness before returning. Tough day.
• On the bright side, Barrett participated in a full-contact playgroup on Thursday, the latest step in his return from a knee sprain. Head coach Darko Rajaković said Barrett is progressing “really well,” and he’ll be considered day-to-day from here. Sidelined since Nov. 23 – a span of 15 games now, which included a PRP injection for his knee – Barrett’s importance, especially on offence, has never been more obvious.
There was no update on Poeltl, who is now listed as having a lower back strain, rather than the “injury management” designation he’d carried on and off for most of the season.
The Raptors have been cautious with recovering players in back-to-back situations, so it’s worth noting that they’ll play Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday at home (with a mandated off-day Tuesday) before there’s another full practice day to ramp back up.
• Over the course of 82 games, you can often find small silver linings if a top player misses time. That creates opportunities for others, and you can learn more about depth pieces in larger roles, prod for weak spots in the rotation ahead of the trade deadline, and keep everyone engaged.
You hope, though, that someone pops in those expanded minutes, and that’s been a real mixed bag for Toronto.
At the high end, Sandro Mamukelashvili has proven himself one of the best low-cost free agent signings of this or any Raptors era. A great story as a depth piece, Mamukelashvili has regularly made the most of extra minutes in Poeltl’s absence. In the first half Friday, he came up with momentum-swinging plays a hand full of times, hitting late-clock threes, coming up with offensive rebounds, or running back for blocks in transition. His 13-point, 11-rebound double-double was his first of the season, but through no fault of his own, a rotation where Mamukelasvhili is the truest “big” is going to struggle.
Jonathan Mogbo got an opportunity with Poeltl and Murray-Boyles down. Coming off of a strong stretch of play with Raptors 905, there was room for optimism the sophomore could provide a spark. That slipped away quickly, like a couple of passes through his hands on dump-offs. He nearly finished with an 11-trillion, tallying just one steal on the box score in 11 minutes.
At the two-guard spot, Ja’Kobe Walter had a really nice and versatile scoring night (15 points on 5-of-7 shooting) but wasn’t at his sharpest defensively. Gradey Dick, meanwhile, continues to shoot poorly, and while he’s shown juice elsewhere – he had three pretty assists and could have had a fourth – his secondary skills just won’t matter at this level if he can’t knock down threes reliably.
Individually, you can understand the ups and downs for the group of young players, one that still includes Jamal Shead (minus-27 in 19 minutes) and Jamison Battle (0-for-3). As a collective, it hasn’t been enough to sustain them. With two starters playing a combined 245 minutes over the last month, you’d hope the decision of “who loses minutes when X and Y return” wasn’t as easy as it feels right now.
• The absences also really drive home a truth about this offence: Even with a lot of individual talent, there’s very little threat on the rim. The Raptors rank second in the league in assists that lead to a bucket at the rim (awesome!) but have the lowest rate of unassisted rim scoring by a notable margin. Brandon Ingram’s mid-range, Immanuel Quickley’s shooting, Barnes’ ability to go coast-to-coast for bully lefty dunks or high-low passing against a zone, it’s all good stuff, but Barrett is often their best path to the paint or the free-throw line.
That’s particularly notable with transition lineups, as Rajaković can’t strategically stagger as many anchor starters right now. Bench-heavy units are really struggling to create advantages, and a lot of the team’s depth pieces have fairly narrow offensive roles or comfort zones. So Barrett’s absence isn’t just that Barrett is good, it’s that the areas he helps the team aren’t replicated elsewhere on the roster.
• AJ Lawson was with the NBA club for additional depth, after a difficult travel day due to weather that saw him arrive with enough time for only a quick pregame warmup. He got the call in the fourth quarter and helped force an eight-second violation while the game was still close
The Raptors have been conservative with using their allotted days for two-way players despite Lawson, Chucky Hepburn, and Alijah Martin all having strong starts to their G League seasons. Because the Raptors are only carrying 14 NBA contracts, the number of games they can have two-way players active is capped at 90, total, right now, rather than 50 per player. That could change after the Feb. 5 trade deadline, which could see the final roster spot filled or a two-way converted, depending on how trade season shakes out.
(I believe Lawson is at seven games, Hepburn at four, and Martin at three. This is just my tracking, as they’re not officially listed anywhere.)
• Raptors 905 get back in action Saturday in Mississauga. If you missed it, they finished the “Tip Off Tournament” portion of their schedule a perfect 14-0, then won two G League Showcase games before finally losing in the Showcase Cup final. Like the NBA Cup, the championship game actually doesn’t count toward stats or the standings, so then 905 are technically still undefeated, though the standings reset after 14 games, so they’re now 2-0 once again. (Yes, it’s a little odd. Yes, we’ll take the technicality to keep getting “undefeated” tweets off.)
• Kyshawn George gave Canada Basketball fans something to be happy with out of the loss, as he scored 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting, adding six rebounds and three assists. He’s having an excellent sophomore season that should have him on some ballots for Most Improved Player.
And my fellow native of The Region, Will Riley, has been playing more minutes of late, including 16 minutes with eight points and a pair of assists here.
• At the other end of the age spectrum, CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton had solid games, with McCollum in particularly keying a big second-quarter run. While it’s not as easy to move $30-million expiring contracts for non-stars in the apron era of the CBA, they should be interesting for non-apron contenders if they wind up in the buyout market post-deadline.
Marvin Bagley should also command some interest as a minimum-salaried bench big.
• It was frustrating to see the Wizards get away with a very young, all-bench lineup at once point in this game. Only Brooklyn has played with zero starters more often, as that can either be the staple of a rebuilding team (lineup optimization isn’t as important) or a very deep team (Bench Mob Raptors). Against Washington, it should be when a team like the Raptors makes a strong push.
Speaking of depth and balance: The Wizards’ first five baskets of the game were scored by five different players. Sharing rocks.
• I hope you all had a Merry Christmas, if you celebrate, and some good holiday time either way. The Raptors Show returns on Monday, by the way, so lock back in.
