TORONTO — In roughly two weeks, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the rest of the NHL will break for the Olympics, with the last games being on Feb. 5, and the return to action coming Feb. 25.
The Leafs are done even sooner than that, though, with their own schedule wrapping up Feb. 3 against the Edmonton Oilers, which is just 13 days away.
Over those 13 days, the Leafs — who are already talking about being tired and rundown and battling injuries — play a staggering eight games. To say they’ll limp into the Olympic break is an understatement; they might get pushed there on a gurney.
What compounds the burden of the schedule, though, is that these games are massive, and can’t be shrugged away. The runway is getting short if they’re going to achieve lift-off.
The Leafs wake up Wednesday just two points behind the Boston Bruins for the final playoff spot, with one game in hand. They’re three behind the Sabres with the same games played. By points percentage, they’re also ninth in the East, just ahead of the Philadelphia Flyers, but the Florida Panthers, Washington Capitals, Ottawa Senators and New Jersey Devils are right there, just a breath behind them. It’s tight.
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With eight games worth of points to be handed out over these 13 days, the Leafs have the potential to greatly alter their standing here and, in turn, their direction, potentially for years to come.
The hard part is that there’s so many teams in that mix, that there are really only two outcomes now: You win quite a bit and stay in the fight, or you collect about half the available points (or fewer), and someone, likely multiple someones, plays at a better pace than that and passes you. There’s just too many teams in that pile to lose half the time and stay afloat.
To reiterate, it’s win and keep pace, or lose and fall out.
If the Leafs win some — let’s say they win at their current winning percentage (.571) — that would mean taking nine or 10 of the possible 16 points. That would probably be enough to stay in the fight, and probably enough for the Leafs management to say, “OK, well, we can’t be sellers here, let’s add to the group.”
No team — particularly one with prime-aged stars such as Auston Matthews and William Nylander — who have made playoffs nine straight years, would suddenly pull the ripcord and parachute themselves out of the race. It just wouldn’t happen, that’s not the point of sports, let alone the point of selling sports tickets.
So that’s the bar. Nine points is the absolute floor, and they probably fall a bit behind with just nine. At 10, they tread water (or improve slightly) and at 11 they start making up ground.
Pull that off, and they buy at the deadline. They’ll add a D, though it won’t be one that delights the fanbase too much. Maybe they’ll track down a scorer of some variety. In the end, it would be mostly thrift shopping, hope to unearth some overlooked gem that fits their needs perfectly.
I suppose they could also be great over this stretch, get 12 points or more and feel really good about themselves as Nylander comes back with Matthew Knies about to get some rest, and they swing a little bigger.
But there’s also the very real, very concerning option that they don’t fare well coming up here. That one, unfortunately, is not tough to imagine. They just played Minnesota without Nylander and with Knies hobbling around after a tough road trip, and got their lunch fed to them, and followed it up by talking about being tired.
Well, what’s going to change over the upcoming stretch? Isn’t that going to be the same group they’ll be rolling out?
And who they’re playing over this stretch, well, this is what you get when you squander a generous early portion of the schedule.
They’ve got the Detroit Red Wings, who are second in the Atlantic (and 7-2-1 in their last 10), followed by the Golden Knights, who are first in the Pacific (7-2-1 last 10), followed by the Avalanche, who are first in the entire NHL. They’ll see the red-hot Buffalo Sabres and the aforementioned Oilers over this stretch of eight games, too.
Hell, if they lose to Detroit, Vegas and Colorado over their next three games, the whole “buyers or sellers?” debate could be all but over by Sunday night.
You can see the stakes at play in the coming days, and particularly this Wednesday night.
It seems like the Atlantic should get five teams in the playoffs, but tell me which three teams will miss out?
Ottawa, which is above .500 at 23-19-7 and tied with Florida at 53 points, feels like is in the most disarray. But the Senators’ underlying numbers are so good, you also feel like if they just got some saves for a run of a few weeks, they’d climb the standings quick, and they’re a whopping three whole points behind the Leafs. Like, they’re “last,” and they’re right there.
It feels like Detroit and Montreal, particularly Montreal, aren’t going to fade enough to drop out. The Bruins are 8-2-0 in their last 10. It feels like Buffalo wins every night.
So, who? Three, maybe four of these teams will fall short. There’s not much room for error here.
For the Leafs, like many teams, there’s the fantasy version of their season that plays out like this: They thrive over the next two weeks and become buyers. They add someone like Dougie Hamilton, and maybe a scoring forward, somehow. Nylander comes back, Knies gets healthy, Anthony Stolarz gets hot, and hell, maybe Chris Tanev even comes back in the playoffs. (Yes, there’s a salary cap in the playoffs, but it’s just for your dressed players, so you can exceed what you’d usually have on the roster some.)
The Atlantic has lots of good teams but no one is spectacular, and if it all comes together at the right time for the Leafs, they’re among the teams going “You never know” about their best-case outcome.
On the other end of the spectrum, if the tired, injured Leafs go up against the league’s best teams and go ice-cold, it could be a full pivot.
What would Oliver Ekman-Larsson be worth to a playoff team, with his exceptional season, term and cheap contract? How about Scott Laughton, or even Bobby McMann, if they wanted to really sell? Fans don’t want to see those guys go, but if they’re likely to miss the playoffs, they can’t really afford to let good assets leave for nothing.
That sort of selling could impact the team for next year and beyond, as they’d then have new assets to spend but a worse roster, with GM Brad Treliving deciding how to try to improve in the off-season. There’s just no telling the long-term impact that could have on this group, which could impact Matthews’ next contract decision.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but the next two weeks of the Leafs season will have a big impact on where they go from here.
Wednesday against the Red Wings (Sportsnet, Sportsnet+, 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT), well, there’s no changes to their Monday lineup. Joseph Woll will start again. They’ve got a fresh crack at a Wings team that’s had their number this year, in a game they almost have to have.
Yes, those are the more dramatic possible outcomes for this team, and the likely one probably falls somewhere in the middle. But make no mistake about it: It may not be the playoffs, but I’m not sure the stakes would be higher even if it were.
