OTTAWA — The Ottawa Senators were supposed to take the proverbial next step this season. Instead, they tripped over themselves, and woke up Monday morning seven points out of a playoff spot.
Sure, it’s possible a touchdown scoreline on Sunday in a 7-1 thumping of Vegas will change the entire course of the season. Likely not.
So, how did we get here? And what’s next?
Two very different questions — and both have equally unsatisfying answers.
The Senators’ playoff odds dropped from 40 per cent last weekend to 21.3 now, according to Moneypuck.com. It was a hellish week, including three multi-goal leads squandered, league-worst goaltending and putrid penalty killing.
Apathy has become an over-explored emotion for a Senators fanbase yearning for any sort of hope for the last decade. Oh yeah, Senators fans, you don’t have your first-rounder this year either. Deep sighs. If the season ended today, they’d have to forfeit a top-10 pick…
The missing pick is simply the cherry on top of a misery sundae. Expectations breed disappointment.
These Senators will likely be remembered for both their lack of saves and a certain statement. Linus Ullmark will be front and centre, because of his performance but also his personal leave for mental health. He showed immense vulnerability to speak openly about how athletes struggle just like the rest of us.
Yet, unfortunately for his team, he has failed to bring the goaltending Ottawa desperately wanted when it traded significant assets and handed him a $33 million contract extension last season. After not playing in a month, he returned as the backup on Sunday. When he’s played, he’s been second-last in goals saved above expected in the NHL, while youngster Leevi Merilainen — who took over for the Swede — sits third-last. The Senators currently own the third-worst save percentage of any team in the last 30 years.
The uncomfortable truth, however, is it’s not all on the goaltending.
The second problem has been the penalty kill. The Senators sit third-last while short-handed, idling near the basement all season. On Saturday, head coach Travis Green put assistant Mike Yeo at the helm of his penalty-kill unit, replacing Nolan Baumgartner.
“A new voice might give a spark, give a different look, get a different voice,” Green said.
Why make the change now? And not months ago?
“I think because there’s been a lot of learning with our group,” Green said.
“I have seen improvement in our penalty kill. We haven’t got the results, but I’ve liked a lot of what we’ve seen, and I know there’s also been a lot of talk.”
Still, a change should have come sooner, and the Senators are worse off for it.
Another issue: Nick Jensen hasn’t played like a top-four defenceman. Through 48 games, he’s been on the ice for as many five-on-five goals allowed as he was in 71 contests last season. Jensen has been a stand-up professional, but the hole on the right side of the defence has taken another chunk out of the Senators’ defensive armour.
Many fans want Green out, and we understand — it’s been a really frustrating season — but it’s not on him. The team has been good at five-on-five and on the power play. He bears some culpability, but he’s not the main culprit.
It’s above his pay grade.
The Senators’ woes start with someone who doesn’t work for the organization anymore: Pierre Dorion.
From 2018 to 2023, when Dorion was in charge, the Senators tore down the franchise for a rebuild.
Fun times.
-
-
32 Thoughts: The Podcast
Hockey fans already know the name, but this is not the blog. From Sportsnet, 32 Thoughts: The Podcast with NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman and Kyle Bukauskas is a weekly deep dive into the biggest news and interviews from the hockey world.
Dorion traded away what would become the fourth overall pick in 2019 (Bowen Byram), and by improperly dealing Evgenii Dadonov, he lost a first-round pick as punishment — a debt coming due this spring.
Dorion coughed up second-round picks for Matt Murray and Derek Stepan. He signed Joonas Korpisalo to one of the worst goalie contracts in recent memory, short-sightedly dealt Filip Gustavsson for one season of Cam Talbot and left Joey Daccord unprotected. He drafted Tyler Boucher way higher than consensus.
Trading Mark Stone for Erik Brannstrom was one of the “proudest days” of his career, he said.
The current team is still feeling his most short-sighted trades for Alex DeBrincat and Jakob Chychrun, who combined to play two-and-a-half seasons in Ottawa in exchange for two first-round picks that landed at seventh (2022) and 12th (2023) overall.
There were bright spots, including drafting Brady Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson above consensus — home-run selections — and the 2020 draft class expedited the Senators’ rebuild. Dorion won the Erik Karlsson trade, netting two top centres in Tim Stutzle and Josh Norris. Plus, he signed Tkachuk, Stutzle and Sanderson to bargain contracts.
Regardless, his successor Steve Staios was left with some promise but not the stockpile of talent that should have had after a rebuild. Ottawa could have what other teams in the Atlantic do — Buffalo, Montreal and Detroit all own picks and prospects to augment their rebuilds.
Despite being left to work with one hand tied behind his back, Staios extracted a playoff team from the disarray.
Mission accomplished?
Nope.
The goal was sustainable success. Staios’ recent comments that “we’ll contend when we’re ready to contend” were crushing.
We’ve had time to assess Staios.
The trade for Ullmark hasn’t worked, and there’s little chance he could be dealt away. Ullmark’s play may well be the X-factor in determining whether the Senators can return to a playoff and contender status — perhaps, his mental-health hiatus will be the catalyst for improved play on the ice.
It’ll be up to Staios also to find diamonds in the rough between the pipes the way Carolina found Brandon Bussi. Leevi Merilainen and Mads Sogaard hold promise, but zero certainty.
The wager that Josh Norris wouldn’t stay healthy while Dylan Cozens would has proven true after the two were swapped at last year’s deadline. Cozens hasn’t missed a game as a Senator, scoring as many goals (22) as Norris has games played with the Sabres.
It’s a stat that explains away why Ottawa did the deal and won it (for now).
But while Cozens has become a power-play powerhouse (21 points), he’s struggled at five-on-five (18 points).
Staios brought in Jensen and Fabian Zetterlund, neither of whom have worked out the way they were supposed to. Zetterlund has scored just 14 goals in 72 games as a Senator.
The Senators are paying Ullmark, David Perron, Zetterlund and Jensen slightly over $20 million on the cap this season. That money could have been used way more effectively, which has held Ottawa back.
Looming over the team is the future of its hallmark star. Tkachuk may not be champing at the bit to sign on the dotted line in two summers if the Senators are not a contender next year. If there is any inkling he doesn’t want to stay, it poses a conundrum: go all in for two years, or do a light retool around Sanderson and Stutzle.
The Senators have $23 million in cap space next season, and their entire core is returning. There is a world where you figure out the goaltending, get a right-shot defenceman — whether that’s prospect Carter Yakemchuk or someone else — and make some shrewd signings, turning the team back into a contender.
Every analytic tells you the Senators are an elite team, top-five in stats from expected goals to high-danger chance ratio.
In that way, the Senators feel close, but that won’t last forever with Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson and Tkachuk scheduled for free agency in the next two seasons. The time to win was supposed to be now.
The Atlantic Division will only be getting better in the years to come. Is it worth it to go all in for two seasons of Tkachuk when you aren’t necessarily even going to make the playoffs? Hard to say.
We believe you’ve got to try to win when you can, but the Senators were supposed to be a playoff team and aren’t. Does going all in for the next two seasons make sense? Is Ottawa that close?
It’s unclear.
Or, should Staios entertain trading Tkachuk to expedite a retool?
It’s been a crazy road for Ottawa, leading to what appears to be a lost season. Staios must plot a winning pathway in an uncertain future.
