Earlier this month, the New York Rangers produced the sequel to “The Letter,” preparing their fans to “(say) goodbye to players (who) have brought us and our fans great moments over the years.”
That likely means forward Artemi Panarin is on his way out of Manhattan after seven highly productive seasons. Players of Panarin’s calibre are rarely available, which will make the bidding war for his services fascinating to watch ahead of the March 6 trade deadline. (Panarin, whose $11.6-million-per-year contract expires this off-season, has a no-movement clause.)
“It’s hard to say how I feel,” Panarin told reporters recently. “I’m still confused, but the GM decided to go in a different direction. I’m OK with that.”
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last weekend that the Rangers are seeking a return similiar to the one that the New York Islanders received for forward Brock Nelson last season. It included a first-round pick, top forward prospect Cal Ritchie and a conditional third-round pick from the Colorado Avalanche.
Such an ask is more than reasonable for Panarin, who has averaged 1.26 points per game since signing with the Rangers in 2019, sixth most in the NHL among 275 players who have appeared in at least 400 games over that span.
Panarin is the fuel that powers New York’s offence. He is the Rangers’ runaway leader in offensive-zone possession time at 53:35 this season (1:02 per game). Captain J.T. Miller is next at 31:04 of total OZ possession time. Only seven players — Connor McDavid, Quinn Hughes, Mathew Barzal, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Eichel and Clayton Keller — have recorded more OZ possession time than Panarin this season.
Panarin (40.4 per cent) is also one of six players this season who have factored on at least 40 per cent of their team’s total goals. McDavid (49.5 per cent), Macklin Celebrini (48.1 per cent), Nikita Kucherov (45.5 per cent), MacKinnon (44.7 per cent) and Mark Scheifele (41.2 per cent) are the others.
The process of acquiring Panarin will be difficult for a number of reasons. Besides Panarin’s no-movement clause, teams are now subject to a playoff salary cap, and New York will be unable to execute a double-salary-retention trade at this stage of the season. But that will not stop teams from attempting to bring in Panarin.
Last week, Sportsnet’s Emily Sadler laid out six intriguing trade destinations for Panarin. Friedman mentioned the Anaheim Ducks, Dallas Stars and Washington Capitals among the potential suitors on the latest episode of 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, adding that he believes Panarin’s preference is to receive a new contract as part of a trade.
Capitals general manager Chris Patrick has gone on record about his desire to trade for a “higher-end, skilled winger.” Washington’s power play has been a source of frustration, falling from 23.5 per cent last season to 16.9 per cent. Panarin is a consistent shooting threat on the power play, averaging the third-most shot attempts in the league per two minutes this season. Since 2019, Panarin’s 7.25 power-play points per 60 minutes rank fourth out of 136 players who have played at least 1,000 minutes on the man advantage.
Perhaps the most interesting destination on Sadler’s list is Detroit, where the Red Wings are challenging for the Atlantic Division title after missing the playoffs in each of the past nine seasons. As Sadler wrote, the Red Wings have “a wealth of desirable prospects, all of their first-round picks, and oodles of cap space” to take a run at Panarin.
Under the surface, Detroit has one of the league’s most dynamic offences, ranking seventh in expected goals per game in all situations. But it could use a boost to turn those expected goals into actual ones. (The Red Wings are 18th in scoring per game.)
The thought of Panarin joining Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond on Detroit’s top forward line is tantalizing. And of course, Panarin started his career alongside Patrick Kane with the Chicago Blackhawks, who dominated play when they were on the ice together. The Blackhawks outscored opponents 52-37 at five-on-five during their shared minutes back in 2016-17. (New York outscored opponents 6-5 at five-on-five after Kane reunited briefly with Panarin at the 2023 trade deadline.)
“We just see hockey the same,” Panarin told reporters following the Rangers’ acquisition of Kane in February 2023. “We just feel comfortable (with each other).”
Although Panarin’s Rangers career will end without a Stanley Cup win, it should still be considered a success. New York won the Presidents’ Trophy and reached two conference finals with Panarin, who is ninth on the franchise’s all-time points list. The team that pays up for him at the trade deadline will be making a big statement.
All stats via Sportlogiq
