TORONTO — Remember the 2020 NBA off-season?
You might not, given it lasted all of about 10 minutes, it felt like. The Lakers won the NBA championship over the Miami Heat on Oct. 11 in the ‘bubble’ at Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando, finishing a season that was interrupted for nearly six months due to the pandemic.
The draft was Nov. 18, the free agency signing period started Nov. 20 and training camps opened for the shortened 2020-21 season — the year the Toronto Raptors camped out in Tampa — on Nov. 30.
I bring all this up because Giannis Antetokounmpo is apparently on the trade market and Raptors fans are hard-wired to think ‘hey, maybe this time…’
Because the last time — the time when it briefly did feel like the Raptors might somehow acquire the perennial MVP candidate — was the short-lived 2020 off-season. Antetokounmpo hadn’t signed an extension with the Bucks, and the Raptors — relying on the relationship then team president Masai Ujiri had with the Bucks star (or at least his family and his agent) — had structured their salary cap to be able to trade for Antetokounmpo or sign him as a free agent in the summer of 2021.
It didn’t quite work out. Antetokounmpo signed a five-year extension for $228 million (which he extended again in 2023) as the 2020-21 campaign began and led the Bucks to their first NBA title in 50 years the following season.
The Raptors? They had to pivot to a rebuild that that has proceeded in fits and starts and have not won a playoff series since.
But guess what?
Antetokounmpo looks like he really is on the move this time, with both the two-time MVP and the Bucks reportedly signalling that a split is imminent, and perhaps as soon as next week’s Feb. 5 trade deadline.
So, do the Raptor get involved? Does the Giannis-to-Toronto deal that seemed a possibility five years ago still have any legs, even if Ujiri is now the Raptors’ former team president and with Bobby Webster heading basketball operations?
And should they be?
Depends on who you ask. So I did, reaching out to multiple teams to inquire hypothetically, what a trade conversation between the Bucks and the Raptors might involve, given Antetokounmpo is undisputedly a game-changing superstar (as indicated by seven straight first-team all-NBA nods) but is 31, has a growing injury track record, is earning $54.1 million this year and $58.5 in 2026-27 and will be expecting a four-year contract extension for $275 million — or an average annual value of $68.8 — that would take him through age 36.
In a vacuum? A team should move heaven and earth, obviously.
But here’s the catch, from the Raptors point of view.
Any conversation they would have regarding Antetokounmpo — and my understanding is the Raptors haven’t to this point engaged in a meaningful discussion with the Bucks — would almost certainly start with Milwaukee asking for Raptors star Scottie Barnes.
“I would be shocked if the Bucks would accept a deal that doesn’t include Scottie,” texted one Eastern Conference executive.
Another: “Scottie has the most trade value and should be the ask.”
A third: “It would have to be picks and Scottie, in my opinion. I just don’t see any other way that they do it. I just don’t see how it works without Scottie and draft assets. That’s the only thing that makes sense to me.”
A fourth: “It’s got to be Scottie. If you’re Toronto, you’re giving up a lot if you’re giving up Scottie, but if you’re Milwaukee, certainly that’s the ask.”
Antetokounmpo is an icon, leading the Bucks in career points, rebounds, blocks, assists (he’s a close second in steals) and field goal percentage, while also having led them to their only title in more than half a century.
Even the discussion around trading him as the team has slid out of their competitive window has been excruciating and exhausting. And Antetokounmpo remains a singular force, putting up MVP-level statistics (28 points, 10 rebounds, 5.6 assists) in the 30 games he has been healthy for this season.
For that reason the Bucks need to emerge from this transaction — if it comes to pass now or in the summer — with a clear ‘win.’
So no, let’s not pretend the Raptors trading Jakob Poeltl, RJ Barrett, Ochai Agbaji and a couple of protected firsts is getting this done. Like, dream.
The Bucks need to get a star in return as well as a geyser of secondary assets. If they were to engage the Atlanta Hawks — who, by all indications are perfectly happy to sit on the sidelines and watch the Bucks bottom out given they have the rights to Milwaukee’s 2026 draft pick, or swap it with the Pelicans if it is even better — the ask would start with emerging all-NBA talent Jalen Johnson. If it’s the San Antonio Spurs, it’s recent No. 2 pick Dylan Harper, if it’s the Houston Rockets it’s Alperen Sengun or Amen Thompson.
It’s why teams that Antetokounmpo has reportedly been interested in joining — the Knicks and the Heat — face an uphill batter in getting a deal done, since they don’t have a young star to trade.
Would the Raptors be willing to part with Barnes, hypothetically?
I don’t think so, and I don’t think they should.
There’s no doubt that at the moment Antetokounmpo is the better player; even Barnes soundly slightly awed when we had a conversation about him earlier this year.
“The guy I’m so shocked with is Giannis,” Barnes said to me when we were chatting about his role defending so many of the league’s top stars. “The way he plays with force every single night, he’s constantly attacking downhill, playing through so much physicality because he’s six-11, seven-foot, super strong, they allow people to kind of foul him. To be able to that every single night, don’t care, go up on three people, dunk on ‘em. It’s a different type of intensity.”
But trading an all-NBA level player — and that’s where Barnes stands when his overall impact is accounted for — who is 24 years old and has four more years remaining on a deal that is pegged at roughly 25 per cent of the salary cap (Barnes is in the first year of a five-year, $224 million contract) is bad business. Barnes best seasons will be his next three or four, most likely, and his deal will be at peak value.
As one of the executives I spoke with put it: “One guy is 31 and he’s going to want that extension and the other is 24 and you have him for four more years after this one. Is Giannis going to be the better player over those years? I don’t know about that.”
As great as Antetokounmpo is, he is undoubtedly beginning to decline just as he’s about to get the most expensive. Age is a cruel master. He’s missed an average of 15 games the past four seasons, has missed 16 this season and will be out another month with his second calf injury this year.
Another factor to consider is that that there is a proven path to winning a title with Antetokounmpo: put the ball in his hands and surround him with as much shooting as possible. In the three years he won his two MVP awards and the 2021 NBA title, the Bucks finished second, fourth and fifth in three-point field goals made, and in the top five in attempts, on average. The Raptors rank in the bottom quarter of the NBA in attempts, makes and percentage when it comes to three-point shooting.
Now, that’s not a permanent state of affairs. As one general manager I spoke put it: “Giannis is in that Joker, Shai, Luka group: you just figure it out,” he said, referring to Denver’s Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Lakers’ Luka Doncic.
Is there a path to an Antetokounmpo-Raptors deal that doesn’t include Barnes?
One of the four executives I spoke with thought so. “If I’m the Bucks I’m focussed on getting the best picks and young players possible and forget about what the media or fans say.”
As an example he went on to suggest that a deal built around Raptors youngsters Collin Murray-Boyles, Ja’Kobe Walter and Jamal Shead, bolstered by all the picks (2027, 2029 and 2031 firsts, and pick swaps in 2028, 2030 and 2032 plus several second-rounders) would be a worthy ask by the Bucks and competitive with rival offers, with some combination of Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to make the money work.
The question for the Raptors, at that point — and this is my two-cents — is what the Raptors would (hypothetically) have left over be a championship contender?
Because if not, then why do it, especially considering you are handing over another team control of your draft picks for seven seasons. A title might be worth it, but falling short of one would be a disaster, long term.
Even in the short term depth would be a significant issue. The fit among Ingram (if he’s not in the deal), Barnes and Antetokounmpo seems awkward. And there’s the matter of what do with Poeltl (presuming good health) as playing the Bucks star with a centre that can spread the floor seems essential.
It’s all interesting fodder for discussion, but likely only that, given the chances of the Bucks doing a deal that doesn’t include Barnes seems — like spring at this point in Toronto’s winter — remote.
