Now that the dust has settled on the trade deadline, fans of teams heading to the post-season are eagerly looking forward to watching their squad compete for the Stanley Cup. For those that aren’t so lucky, it doesn’t mean the final 15 games or so will lack intrigue.
Sometimes the race for the first-overall pick can be just as exciting as a late playoff push. If you’ve watched Matthew Schaefer and Macklin Celebrini play, you know how franchise-altering that top pick can be. The New York Islanders and San Jose Sharks are suddenly on a rapid ascension seemingly overnight, a path that several teams near the bottom of the standings now surely want to follow.
That said, finishing in the bottom five doesn’t guarantee you anything, and it’s what makes the draft lottery so compelling. The Vancouver Canucks, who are last right now and 11 points clear of the next closest team, have only a 25.1 per cent chance at the first-overall pick, according to Tankathon. Vancouver actually has far better odds at getting the third-overall pick than its chances at first or second combined.
Here’s a quick refresher on the draft lottery rules:
• There are two different lotteries. One that determines the first-overall pick and then one that decides the second.
• Every non-playoff team has a chance to win the lottery, but you can only move up 10 spots in the draft. Meaning only 11 teams have a chance at the top pick.
• As mentioned, the Canucks currently have the best odds at the first pick at 25.1 per cent, while the Seattle Kraken, who currently sit 11th, have a 3 per cent chance. Odds for the teams in between vary based on your place in the standings.
Last year, the Isles finished 23rd and had the lottery balls bounce their way to land Schaefer. Anything can happen.
Let’s take a look at how the reverse standings could shake out and the odds all the non-playoff teams have for winning the lottery.
Cemented in the bottom five: (Vancouver 25.1 per cent, Calgary 13.6 per cent, Chicago 11.6 per cent)
The Canucks have sold off a bunch of pieces this season and are fully committed to a rebuild. That includes the Quinn Hughes trade, which started their plunge down the standings, and they haven’t looked back. Vancouver is far enough behind the pack that it should be safe to finish with the best odds to win the lottery and have the right to draft the likes of Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg.
Calgary put any doubts about its intentions to rest at the deadline, moving MacKenzie Weegar and Nazem Kadri to start the complete teardown after Rasmus Andersson was shipped out earlier in the year. It’s a good bet that the Flames will finish in the bottom three and add an impact player to their prospect pool, as Calgary is stocked up with a ton of good draft picks for the next three years.
Chicago is in a bit better position and could theoretically leapfrog a few teams if Connor Bedard catches fire. Bedard’s injury really derailed their season, but the Blackhawks’ roster is still very thin, so don’t expect them to start climbing the standings. The one argument against that is that they have a good goalie in Spencer Knight who can steal games. That’s the last thing you want when you’re trying to tank.
Still hope for the playoffs: (Los Angeles 3.5 per cent, Seattle 3 per cent, Nashville 5 per cent, Winnipeg 7.5 per cent, Washington 4.2 per cent, Philadelphia 3.2 per cent, Columbus 1.1 per cent, Ottawa 1.1 per cent)
All of these teams are still close enough to the post-season cutoff line that they shouldn’t be thinking about landing a better draft pick yet. That could change in the next week or so, though, if someone loses a few games in a row.
At one point this season, it looked like the Blue Jackets would be in contention for the No. 1 pick, but since Rick Bowness took over, they’ve rapidly ascended the standings. Columbus is one point out of a playoff spot in the East but ahead of the entire Pacific division in the standings.
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It’s much easier to make the playoffs in the West, which is why teams like the Kings, Kraken and Predators are still in the hunt despite being tied with Toronto and behind Florida overall when it comes to points.
Keep in mind, the Senators would still be in the lottery if they miss the playoffs, but will pick 32nd because of the penalty for the Evgenii Dadonov trade. If they were to win the lottery, there would be a redraw.
Extra motivated to lose: (Toronto 6 per cent, Florida 5.1 per cent)
Speaking of those Leafs and Panthers, they perhaps have more riding on these last few weeks than anyone outside of the playoff picture. Toronto’s pick is only top-five protected thanks to the Brandon Carlo trade a year ago and Florida’s has top-10 protection via the Seth Jones swap. Meaning, if the Leafs land outside the top five and the Panthers out of the top 10, the Boston Bruins and Chicago Blackhawks would get their respective picks.
The Leafs are seemingly doing everything they can, whether intentionally or unintentionally, to save their pick. Toronto had lost eight in a row prior to beating the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday, and now has won just three times in regulation in 22 tries. That win versus the Ducks hurt the tanking cause, but Toronto lost Auston Matthews to injury in that game, and his potential absence could help them keep piling up the losses.
With the eighth-toughest schedule remaining, it’s hard to see the Leafs winning more than four or five games the rest of the way. What once seemed impossible now at least seems plausible for the Leafs, as they’ve plummeted to the league’s eighth-worst record and are only one point ahead of New Jersey for seventh-worst.
The Rangers, Blues and Jets are all tied at 62 points, which is five behind Toronto. St. Louis and New York are keeping the Leafs in the hunt thanks to some untimely wins of late. The Leafs not only have to get into the top five but stay there when the lottery balls are drawn. There’s a world where they could finish with one of the five worst records in the league but get bumped down to sixth in the lottery and still hand the Bruins their pick.
Finishing fourth worst as opposed to fifth worst would actually make a massive difference to Toronto keeping its pick. If you finish fifth from the bottom, you have a 24.2 per cent chance of staying where you are in the draft lottery, but a 44.5 per cent chance of dropping to sixth and a 13.9 per cent chance of falling to seventh. Add those together, and even if Toronto goes into the lottery in the fifth spot, there’s still a 58.4 per cent chance Boston is coming out of there with the Leafs pick.
However, if it can get to fourth from the bottom, Toronto’s odds drastically improve. The Leafs would then have a 44.5 per cent chance of staying in the top five. As bad as the Leafs have looked of late, they still have a lot of work to do. Should the Leafs end up keeping their pick this summer, they’d be forced to give up two unprotected firsts over the next two years. That could be a scary proposition itself, but securing a top-five pick in this loaded draft is probably worth rolling the dice going forward and hoping you can come back and improve your place in the standings for 2026-27.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have a much easier path to retaining their pick. They are currently just ahead of a few of those teams fighting for a playoff spot in the West and could easily fall into the bottom 10. It sounds like Brad Marchand is likely going to be shut down for the season and other Panthers could follow suit.
Getting a top-10 pick could give the Panthers flexibility in the off-season to re-tool for next year when they’ll hopefully be much healthier and have their captain, Aleksander Barkov, back. They could re-stock the cupboards with a high draft pick or maybe flip it for a younger goalie if they can’t come to terms with Sergei Bobrovsky.
Surging at the wrong time: (New Jersey 6.5 per cent, New York Rangers 9.5 per cent, St. Louis 8.5 per cent)
All of these teams have little to no hope of making the playoffs, but have suddenly come alive. The Devils recently had a four-game winning streak, the Rangers have won five of seven and the Blues five of six. You’d love to see these recent stretches from your team in November, though, in mid-March, it’s problematic for your draft position.
As mentioned, the Blues and Rangers have the most to worry about regarding getting caught by the Leafs. Despite St. Louis selling at the deadline, they didn’t end up moving top players like Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Colton Parayko. Jimmy Snuggerud has also been on fire of late, posting four straight multi-point games. Not to mention Joel Hofer, who has been lights out, allowing just eight goals in his past five starts. If the Blues aren’t careful, they could pass a few teams.
New Jersey is now one point behind Toronto and could theoretically try to get into the top five as well. The Devils will at least want to make sure they stay below those teams still battling for playoff spots in the West to really increase their lottery odds.
It’s going to be one heck of a race to the bottom over the final month of the season.
