TORONTO – In a number of ways, the Toronto Blue Jays are as stable as they’ve been in a very long time. Franchise player Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is locked up through the next decade. The leadership group of president and CEO Mark Shapiro, GM Ross Atkins and manager John Schneider are in place for years to come, with crucial organizational alignment above and below them.
The club enters the season projecting a top-five Competitive Balance Tax payroll, spending at a level that would have been fantasy a decade ago. Making that sustainable is Rogers Centre, with its third renovation unveiled Wednesday, a venue now leveraged by both players and fans, capable of generating revenue at a level competitive with their prime rivals and viable for the foreseeable future.
Put all together, then, there’s a case to be made that the franchise is on its best footing since the 1992-93 World Series years, which is rather remarkable given “the inflection point,” as Shapiro put it, the organization was facing just one year ago.
Shapiro can now say, “there’s not a moment that we don’t hold ourselves to high expectations and very few moments that we reflect on being satisfied – we’re chasing excellence,” and the evidence is clear both in process and results.
Yet at the same time that the Blue Jays flex within the current baseball structure, there is a threat of widescale upheaval in the industry once the current collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, with owners expected to lock out players immediately after.
-
-
MLB on Sportsnet
Watch the Toronto Blue Jays, Blue Jays Central pre-game, marquee MLB matchups, Jays in 30, original documentaries, the wild card, divisional series, championship series and entire World Series on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+.
Commissioner Rob Manfred has been signalling the owners’ intent to pursue a salary cap, or something akin to it, for months now, and there is persistent talk about their willingness to lose games, maybe even an entire season, in 2027 to a system that restrains team spending.
The players, under new union head Bruce Meyer, will be vehemently opposed to any such change, but with Manfred entering his final labour negotiation before his planned retirement in 2029, the ingredients may be there for him and the owners to go full NHL in 2004-05.
For the Blue Jays, the timing could disrupt what they’ve built and are seeking to capitalize upon, starting this year but also in years to come. And as they celebrate their 50th season coming off that epic World Series not even five months ago, the game’s wider uncertainties will loom against the continuity they seek to maintain.
“We’ll adapt and function with whatever the rules are at that time,” Shapiro, carefully avoiding opining on the current CBA, said of how potential shifts in the game’s operating system might impact what the Blue Jays have built. “It’s a lot like the Dodgers have said: They’re not doing anything wrong. They’re operating within the system. Frankly, they’re spending what they’re making. It’s the system that exists. We’ll continue to work with the system. If the system changes, we’ll adjust to the change in the system and I’ll let you know then. I’m not going to sit here and try to guess what that system could look like.”
Fair enough, and Shapiro even avoided discussing whether the current CBA is good for the Blue Jays, saying only that, “it’s the one we’re operating within,” without elaboration.
Still, he acknowledged that he’s been getting lots of questions about what might happen next year from employees across the organization, “it’s obviously on people’s minds,” he noted, and some are already wondering what might happen to them next year if games are actually lost.
Baseball, of course, has been down this road before in 1994, and the Blue Jays took a double-hit from the strife, as frustration over a lost World Series and a cockamamie replacement-player scheme timed up with a downturn in the club’s fortunes, events that spun into a 21-year playoff drought.
History is more guide than blueprint, which is why Shapiro said “it’s dangerous to compare two eras and say the exact same thing” will repeat. But back in 1995-95, the Blue Jays had at least brought their initial build-up out of the 1977 expansion to fruition with two titles. An interruption now, in the midst of a competitive window that’s been deftly readjusted, carries a very different opportunity-cost.
The Blue Jays have roughly $82 million in payroll commitments coming off the books at the end of this season, so if baseball did suddenly find itself in a hard-cap world, the adjustment for them should be easier than for other top spenders. But if the financial edge they’ve used in recent off-seasons is suddenly gone, maintaining a big-league roster that’s a legitimate contender will suddenly be more complicated.
All of which adds to the stakes for all clubs this season, Blue Jays included.
They are heading into a year-long 50th-season celebration, coming off the club’s best year since 1993, with a roster legitimately capable of going on another run. As Shapiro said, “we have as much as, if not more than any other fanbase, more than any other front office, more than any other group of players, an incredible season to look forward to.”
Also true is what he told his worried employees: “You will not find happiness thinking about what’s coming in six months.”
Though much of what lies ahead is conjecture, the conjecture is driven by messaging Manfred has worked to anchor in the minds of players, so this stuff isn’t being invented. An optimistic outlook is that the rhetoric to this point is designed to soften up players for what will end up being more minor concessions, but that won’t be certain until the sides start negotiating seriously, which might not be until games are cancelled next spring.
In markets that see baseball’s current CBA as a broken system that keeps them from competing with the Dodgers and other top spenders, all that is reason for hope. In Toronto, that’s reason for compartmentalization.
“What I’ve encouraged from a leadership position for (employees) to do is to focus on what they can control … A celebration of our 50th for our fans. A celebration of last year’s American League championship. And a mountain to climb, and excellence to chase and pursue, to try to achieve a world championship. At the end of that, we’ll address that and start to think about it,” said Shapiro, who added later, “I certainly have opinions. Not going to comment on anything more than that now because I want people, I want our players and I want our staff and I want our organization and more than anything, I want our fans to focus on what I hope to be a magical year ahead.”
Sound advice, as if there were ever a season to live for the moment, this might be the one.
