How the Maple Leafs can return to being much better in just a few easy steps

TORONTO — The 2025-26 Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t just been bad, they’ve been outright brutal for most of the season. There’s not really a metric to point to that says otherwise, from the standings to micro-stats to the vibes.

When an outcome like this happens, it almost always feels like it was an inevitability, but it didn’t have to be that way. Maybe they weren’t set up to compete for a Cup but based on talent alone, they should’ve at least been sniffing around the playoff picture. Had that been the case, you can bet the trade deadline would’ve looked awfully different.

Regardless, there are too many good players for them to be as bad as they’ve been. And with a change in leadership, and the stated preference of management to “retool” this thing rather than rebuild, it’s not impossible to see how, with a few moves, the Leafs could get back in the playoff picture. 

Now, is that good enough, just competing for a playoff spot? Is the pursuit of what Pittsburgh has done — hanging on to an old core while transitioning to a younger group with assets — possible? 

To those questions, I’d answer: the organization wants to start there, so any other answer is irrelevant — and yes, it is.

The one thing I can’t shake about this past season is how passive the Leafs were. They took almost no action at any point as it slid off the road, and there were options at their disposal much earlier on.

Well, the time for action has arrived. Let’s talk about how to get back into the mix with the top half of the league.

They replace the coach, likely with Bruce Cassidy or Peter DeBoer

One of my favourite sports discussions is, “How many wins or losses do you think a coach can impact each season?” 

Like, if you rolled out the Colorado Avalanche this season with no coach behind the bench and just had the players sort it out, I truly think they still make the playoffs. With an average coach, they’re probably still a very good team. And if you had Jon Cooper behind the bench of this year’s Vancouver Canucks, they’re still miles from playoffs. So how much influence can a coach have?

I believe it’s a smallish number, but the difference is in the swings. Maybe a bad coach costs your team only three games over 82 games, compared to an average coach. But if a good coach can help you be plus-three wins, you’re talking about a six-win swing between the good and bad coach. That’s massive.

This season’s Leafs simply cannot claim the staff has been finding them wins. They fired one assistant in December after a horrific start on the power play, but just generally we haven’t seen buy-in from the stars and, in turn, from the depth below them. You get hints that it’s just not working, and it all starts with the buy-in they don’t seem to have.

I recognize the names listed above — Bruce Cassidy and Peter DeBoer — are retread hires, but we’ve got enough sample size that show us their teams win consistently. They are not “sub-average win” guys. They know what winning looks like. If either of those guys take over and they help at all, if they even became “plus-one wins” type coaches (ideally more), I think you’re gaining four or five wins on this past season.

Cowan-Tavares-Nylander are a good line

Much of this article was built off conversations with Anthony Petrielli of Maple Leafs Hot Stove, and the Easton Cowan-John Tavares-William Nylander line is one of the lines we glommed on to. They didn’t get used a ton, but they were up 12-4 in goals in their minutes, and 34-15 in high-danger chances.

Cowan is clearly one of their guys with the most room to gain on previous versions of himself, and watching him the past few weeks, I can confirm he’s taken a step. When he doesn’t have the puck, he’s an asset now, and after another good summer, I think he’s going to be a contributor.

Now, I’m not sold on Tavares as a Cup-winning 2C either. As you look to take bigger steps, you’d need another capable centre (could Charlie Coyle handle what JT couldn’t in the middle six?), and that’s what we’re trying to identify as needs here today. If the above line can focus on scoring, you’d need someone defensively capable. Ideally, down the road you get a better 2C and bump JT, but for now, this is a very good second line. 

You need a right winger for Knies and Matthews

This isn’t a huge ask, and you wouldn’t need a superstar. You just need someone who’s good defensively and makes plays with the puck.

Part of next year’s hopes hinge on the idea that Auston Matthews can be very good again (can he threaten 90 points and be stellar defensively?), and I believe Matthew Knies is going to be an extremely valuable player. 

If you can plug in a UFA there — call it Jaden Schwartz or Viktor Arvidsson —  just someone who can complement them rather than the mishmash of bad fits they’ve tried this season, that line can get back to dominating.

And for the love of goodness, do not trade Knies before he hits his ceiling for a grab bag of lottery tickets on defence. I think it’s been an educational year for him, and a fresh start with a new coach would do him a world of good. He can be a 30-goal, 70-plus-point physical force at age 23/24 next season. Keep him.

They have talent in net

If Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz weren’t good, the Leafs would be keeping their draft pick this season, no doubt. They’ve stolen almost all their points over the past month. And even with their “disappointing years,” the team is 13^th in team save percentage. They were fourth last year. 

You can have all the questions you like about their ability to be available, or win the biggest games, but the fact is that the tandem is an above league-average duo that’s still playing below their showings the previous season.

This season, Woll started with a personal leave of absence, Stolarz was hurt, and things just never really got rolling in the right direction, but it’s falling back into place. It’s tough to be awful when your goaltending is good, and it should be good next season. If it isn’t, the team likes Dennis Hildeby a lot too. One way or another, they should get saves.

Chris Tanev will help

Last season, Tanev was the Leafs’ best defenseman. Having him back immediately gives them an adult in the room and anchors a pair. We don’t know what he’ll look like exactly, but a lot of rest should’ve done his body good, and he’s just a free addition for them once back, and a meaningful one.

Could he get hurt again, yes, but if he can even give them 65 games, the Leafs D would improve.

Now: do they have to move Morgan Rielly? I think yes, though it does sound like perhaps him agreeing to waive isn’t a lock. But for now, let’s start with “Tanev helps,” and we’ll proceed as if they don’t immediately sort out Rielly, because it’s tough to know what that looks like. More on this when I draw up a lineup farther down.

Add one meaningful defender

Here’s the thing about the Leafs D: Jake McCabe is legit good. So is Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Brandon Carlo had a weird season of being hurt while under heavy scrutiny, but he’s a very solid bottom-pair right-hand D. You’re bringing back Tanev. 

If you add one meaningful offensive D (Darren Raddysh?), which is a big off-season mission, everyone just slots into better spots. It’s older, but they’re smart, proven vets who compete.

This is not the D-corps of a tanking, rebuilding team, and one quality D changes the look entirely.

If you go back over this piece, I’ve said the needs are:

* A right winger for Matthews and Knies. Not a superstar, but a competent all-around player.

* A capable middle-six centre

* A good D-man

That’s three UFA adds, the barest-bones version of a Leafs off-season that makes them playoff-relevant again.

The below is just baseline, before the idea of even swinging a larger trade, but instead just making some signings. To be clear, I’d like to see more changes than this, but they could start with some version of: 

Knies – Matthews – Schwartz

Cowan – Tavares – Nylander

Joshua – Coyle – Maccelli

Lorentz – Domi – Pezzetta

(Groulx- Quillan – Robertson)

McCabe – Raddysh

Rielly – Tanev

OEL – Carlo

(Benoit – Stetcher)

Stolarz

Woll

(Hildeby)

Now, we have no idea what the team will do with Rielly, or if he’ll even waive his no-move. But if you believe he has to go, you can bump up OEL, put in Simon Benoit (or make another off-season addition), and the D still looks very capable.

Still, that team above with a new coaching staff, it can compete. 

Yes, there is intense skepticism after a year of abject failure. Yes, they need a savvy off-season. But a “retool” isn’t as silly as some make it out to be. There’s talent there, and just a few pieces could help assemble a very competitive puzzle.