The Toronto Blue Jays have experienced many flavours of misery during their 5-7 start, but their lineup’s ineptitude ranks at the top of their list of woes.
In 12 games, the club has scored just 41 runs with a wRC+ (93) that ranks 19th in the majors. Some of the team’s issues have resulted from an inability to capitalize on promising situations — the Blue Jays are a miserable 1-for-19 with the bases loaded — but Toronto isn’t just suffering from unlucky sequencing.
The team is getting underwhelming performances up and down the lineup. Generally speaking, new additions like Kazuma Okamoto and Jesús Sánchez have pulled their weight, but the hitters who drove 2025’s offensive success have struggled early. Specifically, Toronto hasn’t got much from the six returning players who were above-average at the plate last year by wRC+ in at least 250 plate appearances: George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes.
In 2025, that group collectively hit .274/.348/.473, good for a 128 wRC+. So far in 2026, that sextet has a .177/.282/.285 line, for a 68 wRC+. Some kind of bounce-back is a near certainty, but the extent of that rebound will be critical to the team’s chances this season.
Looking at some of the individual struggles provides better insight about how hopeful the Blue Jays should be about this group finding its footing — and how concerned the tough start is. In a couple of cases (Kirk and Barger), getting healthy is the worry for now, and that pair has fewer combined plate appearances (45) than either Springer or Guerrero. It’s also safe to put Lukes aside because he’s only had part-time work so far (21 PA) and is more of a role player when everybody’s healthy.
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That means the group Toronto really needs significantly more from in the near term is the trio of hitters who’ve sat atop the lineup the last two games: Springer, Varsho, and Guerrero.
George Springer
2025 rate stats: .309/.399/.560 for a 166 wRC+
2026 rate stats: .184/.273/.367 for a 89 wRC+
What’s going on: Even after Springer’s first multi-hit game of the season, his numbers aren’t anywhere near where he’d want them to be.
The good news for Springer is that he’s provided some OK power production with a .184 ISO that’s not too far from his career average (.211), and he’s taking his walks (10.9 BB%). Outside of that, it’s been a struggle.
It would be easy to look at Springer’s BABIP (.212) and come to the conclusion he’s just been unlucky, but he’s put too many soft balls in the air with a massive 26.3 per cent infield fly rate to show for his efforts. His expected average (.167) and SLG (.344) are pretty close to his real numbers. His strikeout rate (25.5 per cent) is on the high side for someone who’s been under 20 per cent in each of the last four seasons.
That’s all discouraging stuff, but none of it seems too predictive of what’s to come. Because of Springer’s age (36), whenever he falters, he’ll open the door to worries about rapid decline, but his early underlying numbers aren’t particularly alarming. A common concern for older players is declining bat speed, but his average bat speed (73.3 mph) matches last year’s mark (73.7 mph) closely. His high strikeout rate, for instance, is also backed by a contact rate (77.2 per cent) better than his 2025 standard (73.9 per cent).
Springer doesn’t look like a hitter whose capabilities have abandoned him, just a guy who’s a little bit off and getting under the ball too much.
Concern level: Low
Daulton Varsho
2025 rate stats: .238/.284/.548 for a 123 wRC+
2026 rate stats: .184/.295/.237 for a 59 wRC+
What’s going on: Varsho is in an interesting position because his numbers are indisputably poor, but his process looks intriguing, at least on the surface. The outfielder has generally been approximately average at drawing walks and below-average at avoiding strikeouts, but this year he’s been excellent on both counts (13.6 BB% and 13.6 K%).
Normally, results like that come from an increase in both swing decisions and contact ability. In Varsho’s case, though, his swing rate on pitches inside and outside the zone are approximately the same as last year:
|
Season |
In-Zone Swing% |
Out-of-Zone Swing% |
|
2025 |
75.1% |
29.9% |
|
2026 |
77.8% |
30.2% |
Varsho hasn’t awakened his inner Joey Votto, so the walk rate spike is unlikely to be durable. His contact rate is higher than usual, but not out of place among other 12-game spans in his career:
That means it’s tough to get too excited about the positives, and the big negative here is that Varsho’s not making any hard contact. Coming off a season where he hit 20 home runs in just 71 games, he hasn’t cleared the wall yet, and his average exit velocity (82.9 mph) ranks 262nd among 272 qualified hitters. His max exit velocity in 2026 is just 101.2 mph. For reference, he hit a ball 102 mph or harder 44 times on 176 balls in play last year.
While the sample is still small, it’s a bit shocking to see a hitter who has traditionally sold out for power make so much harmless contact. There was talk during the spring about Varsho trying to hit the ball to all fields more, and perhaps this is the result. The outfielder is a self-described tinkerer who may have gotten away from what makes him special in an effort to become a more complete hitter.
Maybe Varsho is capable of using the whole field and making more contact while also performing as a high-end power threat, but there’s no proof of concept for that. The version of the outfielder that’s performed well in the past pulls the ball in the air a lot, even if it means striking out plenty.
Varsho can probably tinker his way back out of the trouble he’s in now, but he’s a ways away from recapturing his 2025 form.
Concern level: Medium
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2025 rate stats: .292/.381/.467 for a 137 wRC+
2026 rate stats: .268/.412/366 for a 131 wRC+
What’s going on: Guerrero’s production has been acceptable for an MLB hitter this season, but poor for a lineup centrepiece.
The first baseman has done an excellent job of drawing walks (17.6 BB%) and limiting strikeouts (9.8 K%), which is a great starting point for offensive excellence, but he’s not doing much else particularly well.
Guerrero has just two extra–base hits on the season, though to his credit, one was a towering 437-foot blast to left-centre field.
The 27-year-old’s primary issue right now is a familiar one: he’s pounding the ball into the ground. His groundball rate sits at 52.8%, and his launch angle of 3.7 would be a career low if it held up. The good news for Guerrero is that he seems to have periods like this every season, his power escapes him, and he ends up finding his way. Even in both of his best years (2021 and 2024), he had complete power outages over 12-game spans like the one we’re currently seeing multiple times:
