We didn’t know it at the time, but Week 6 of the 2020 NFL season gave us a (really) early glimpse of the conference championship matchups we’re about to dig into.
A lot has changed since that lop-sided Buccaneers victory over the Packers and the Chiefs’ decisive win over Buffalo in October, and what we see before us now is a pair of showdowns between four clubs that are undoubtedly playing their best football.
Aside from that week in October, though, there isn’t actually a lot of history tucked into these two matchups — however, when two of the game’s GOATs, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are playing, we can’t help but highlight their historic impacts on the NFL.
As for Sunday’s second matchup? That one’s all about the future of the game – and boy, is it bright. A pair of young MVP-calibre stars lighting up the league on a weekly basis are now going head-to-head in what feels like a solid AFC rivalry in the making.
Can Brady bring a new team into the promised land, or will a red-hot Rodgers finally earn a shot at ring No. 2?
Can the Chiefs, hosting their third straight AFC championship, run it back and defend their Super Bowl title, or will Buffalo – fresh off their first playoff victories since 1995 and looking for their first Super Bowl berth since four straight heartbreakers from 1990-93 – stop the dynasty-in-the-making?
Here’s what you need to know heading into Sunday’s conference championship double-header.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET
What Vegas is saying: GB -3.5 | O/U 52
Notable Injuries
Buccaneers: WR Antonio Brown (Out, knee), S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Questionable, ankle)
Packers: DL Kingsley Keke (Out, concussion), CB Kevin King (Questionable, back)
How they got here
Buccaneers: A pair of regular-season losses to the Saints had Tom Brady in unfamiliar territory as the underdog, but the Buccaneers’ defence stepped up – as did Playoff Brady – to win when it mattered most, sending Drew Brees (most likely) into retirement.
Packers: Coming off the bye week, Aaron Rodgers was facing another elite Aaron (Donald, that is) in what was poised to be a solid test for the Packers’ strong offensive line. They passed with flying colours, as did Rodgers – to the tune of 296 yards, two touchdowns and another trip to the NFC title game.
What to watch for
Battle of the GOATs
Tom Brady. Aaron Rodgers. A chance to go to the Super Bowl on the line.
Let’s just let that one sink in for a second.
OK! And now, let’s look at their numbers.
When it comes to all-time accomplishments, there’s no questioning Brady’s GOAT status: 12 consecutive playoff berths, nine Super Bowl appearances, six rings – and now a chance to compete for a seventh with a whole new team, division and conference.
Rodgers doesn’t have those kinds of numbers – one-for-one in Super Bowl appearances – but he does have these this year: 48 touchdown passes, 121.5 QB rating, 70.7 completion percentage and just five interceptions (with an interception percentage of just one per cent). At 37, Rodgers has put up league-best numbers in all of those categories in what has arguably been the best season of his career – and a no-brainer MVP candidate.
Sportsnet’s Geoff Lowe did a deep-dive into the two legends’ numbers, both this season and over the course of their careers. Check that out here.
While Brady, 43, has had stronger statistical seasons in the past than he’s put up in 2020, it’s important to note that he’s playing some of the best football of his career right now while riding a six-game, high-scoring win streak into Green Bay.
Week 6 rematch
We talk a lot about history when we talk about these two QBs, but put them on the field in a head-to-head matchup, and… there’s not much of it. With their careers forged on separate sides of the conference lines, Brady and Rodgers have played against one another just three times over the course of their careers and have never met in the playoffs.
We don’t have to venture too far into the past to see their most recent matchup: Week 6’s 28-10 Buccaneers beatdown that Rodgers & Co. would likely rather forget.
That day saw Tampa Bay’s defence – the top-rated D of the final four clubs – sack Rodgers a whopping five times and pick off two of his passes. To put that game (easily Rodgers’ worst of 2020) into context: Tampa accounted for nearly half of Rodgers’ interceptions on the season and a quarter of his sacks.
But, how much can that week’s outcomes really tell us about what’s to come?
“I think the Week 6 game matters just about as much as when the Saints went to Tampa and beat them 38-3,” Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said Tuesday during an appearance on The Pat McAfee Show.
While Rodgers is obviously not going to suggest he’s doomed to repeat that Week 6 fate this Sunday, he has a point.
The New Orleans Saints twice defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the regular season (including a 38-3 beatdown in Week 9) and, well, they’ll be watching football from home just like the rest of us after losing to Tom Brady & Co. in the divisional round a week ago.
“This is a funny game. Things change, teams change and evolve, and either get better or worse. Not much staying the same,” Rodgers said.
Case in point: Rodgers’ offensive line. Leaky in that Week 6 matchup, it’s been formidable almost every other week – particularly last Sunday against the Rams, when Rodgers went untouched.
“So, I’ll give [the Week 6 loss]as much credence as [Tampa Bay] gave that 38-3 game, which obviously meant nothing to them when they went and beat the Saints on Sunday.”
BUFFALO BILLS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET
What Vegas is saying: KC -3 | O/U 54.5
Notable Injuries
Bills: DT Vernon Butler (Questionable, quad), Gabriel Davis (Questionable, ankle)
Chiefs: LB Willie Gay (Out, ankle), RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Questionable, ankle/hip), CB Rashad Fenton (Questionable, foot), WR Sammy Watkins (Questionable, calf), RB Le’Veon Bell (Questionable, knee)
How they got here
Bills: What was billed as a thrilling matchup between two of the best young QBs in the league was ultimately a one-sided affair for Buffalo, whose defence took full advantage of a dysfunctional Ravens offence.
Chiefs: Following the bye, the well-rested Chiefs were rolling until Sunday’s game against the Browns came to a screeching halt with Patrick Mahomes leaving the game and entering concussion protocol. Able to hold off Cleveland’s comeback, backup Chad Henne was the late-game hero thanks to a gutsy play-call by head coach Andy Reid.
What to watch for
Mahomes good to go, but how healthy is he?
The entire football world got some great news Friday when Mahomes announced he was out of concussion protocol and officially good to go for Sunday’s showdown against the Bills.
Relief, not just for the Chiefs but for the league as a whole. Seeing Mahomes looking dazed and unsteady on his feet after taking a hit while scrambling against the Browns was a scary and sobering sight.
While that was the biggest health question facing Mahomes, it’s not the only one. Mahomes was in obvious pain at several points against the Browns, dealing with an apparent foot injury that saw him limping at times.
Air it out
Last Sunday, both the Chiefs and Bills both stared down strong AFC North clubs with the same goal: Stop the run. Both the Browns and the Ravens knew their elite run games would be the key to any victories, and the Chiefs and Bills made stopping it a priority.
Now going head-to-head, both defences can take that strategy and throw it out the window because what these two offences do best is throw.
The Chiefs’ 5,005 passing yards on the season tops the league, but Buffalo isn’t far behind – with 4,786, they rank third in pass offence. Both have scored 40 touchdowns through the air.
With the status of Chiefs running backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le-Veon Bell still up in the air, Kansas City might not have a ton of choice but to win with their passing game. Speed will be on full display in this one – expect plenty of comparisons between Chiefs speedster Tyreek Hill (he’s second in receiving touchdowns this season with 15) and Bills weapon Stefon Diggs (league leader in receiving yards, with 1,535).
This one should be fun.
