When it comes to quarterback play, the AFC is spoiled with young, elite talent.
Last weekend’s absolutely incredible showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen is a testament to that, and this Sunday’s meeting between Mahomes and newcomer Joe Burrow could follow a similar template.
Meaning, touchdowns — and lots of ’em.
Like any playoff meeting, there are all kinds of storylines and matchups at play here — including, yes, a pretty great kicking battle if you’re into that! — but the focus here is no surprise: It’s Mahomes versus Burrow in a battle for a spot in the Super Bowl.
Looking at the quarterbacks’ regular-season numbers, they’re not so far apart. Mahomes attempted (658) and completed (436) more passes than Burrow in 2021, but Burrow held the advantage when really airing it out — he led the league in yards per attempt (8.9) and finished just ahead of Mahomes in completions of 20-plus (60) and 40-plus (15) yards. Just 228 yards and three touchdowns separated Burrow from his upcoming opponent during the regular season, and Burrow suited up for one less game.
The way these teams are constructed is similar, too, in terms of high-octane offences that can pick apart defences through the air.
In other words, this should be really fun.
The road to the Super Bowl travels through Kansas City… for now, at least
For two decades, it was common knowledge around the AFC that if you wanted to reach the Super Bowl you’d have to defeat the New England Patriots.
Between the first Super Bowl of the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era (2001 season) and the last (2018), the Patriots appeared in the AFC Conference Championship a whopping 13 times. And while many teams tried to defeat them, few were successful. Only Peyton Manning (2006 Colts, 2013 & 2015 Broncos) and Joe Flacco’s 2012 Ravens emerged victorious from AFC title matchups when playing the Patriots. (All but the 2013 Broncos went on to win the Super Bowl.)
The last team to fall to the Patriots in the AFC title game? The 2018 Kansas City Chiefs, led by an MVP second-year quarterback in Mahomes. Ever since that January 2019 meeting, Mahomes & Co. have been busily paving a new path to football’s grandest stage — because now, it’s clear that the road to the Super Bowl runs through Kansas City.
Indeed, Mahomes knows no different — he’s now led the Chiefs to the AFC title game in all four of his seasons as an NFL starter, and the only QB to defeat him in the playoffs is Brady. Surely, no quarterback since the GOAT has had that immediate an impact on his team upon arrival than Mahomes… right?
*Joe Burrow has entered the chat.*
What Joe Burrow has accomplished in his first full season at the helm of the Cincinnati Bengals is simply remarkable. The Ohio-born LSU star turned the AFC North standings (and most predictions) on its head this year. He took a team that finished last in the league in 2019 and with a 4-11 record in 2020 — a year that saw the then-rookie carted off the field with a season-ending knee injury — and led them deeper into the playoffs than they’ve been in more than three decades. And he did it like it was effortless.
As we’ve learned over the course of Mahomes’ career, there’s just about no stopping him — you can only hope to keep up. Is Burrow up to the task?
Why will the Bengals win?
His name is Evan McPherson, and he has ice in his veins.
Okay, but seriously, while the chances are high that a Bengals victory will require a dramatic walk-off field goal from their fearless young leg with a million nicknames… they’re going to need their fearless young quarterback to get them there. And he’s bringing his best friend.
Asked this week what it will take to emerge from the star-studded AFC as conference champs, Burrow said, “Being near perfect.”
That’s a tall order. Except, when it comes to big moments, Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have combined for, well, a pretty perfect playoff record:
Joe Burrow & Ja’Marr Chase are undefeated together in postseason games dating back to college (4-0 w/ @LSUfootball, 2-0 w/ the @Bengals)
In those 6 games …
Burrow: 381.8 pass YPG & 22 pass TD
Chase: 106.8 rec YPG & 4 rec TD
: Jeff Dean/AP pic.twitter.com/cW0xlOa8Sb
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) January 26, 2022
And while this meeting with the Chiefs will be the duo’s first NFL title game, there’s still a familiarity here considering they just played Kansas City in Week 17 — and totally stole the show.
The Chiefs, playing for the No. 1 seed and a much-needed bye, built up a lead in the first half only to see Burrow come storming back and ultimately get the better of Mahomes. He completed more passes (30 of 39 attempts), tallied more yards (446), threw for more touchdowns (four), and registered a higher passer rating (a career-best 148) than Mahomes that game.
While the Chiefs’ offence made some uncharacteristic mistakes, including dropped passes from Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill that would’ve been big gains, on defence there was simply no answer for Chase. Chase put up three touchdowns in that game, tallying a franchise-record 266 yards and averaging 11.4 yards per catch.
It wasn’t a playoff game, but… it was pretty close to perfect.
Why will the Chiefs win?
Listen, it’s Patrick Mahomes. This is not a complicated matter. Mahomes needed all of 13 seconds to march his team all the way down the field to set up a game-tying field goal in last Sunday’s Divisional Round — and that was against the league’s top-rated defence. That he was, apparently, the only person not freaking out in that moment speaks to his poise under pressure and his already-extensive experience.
Of course, it’s not just Mahomes. And what separates this year’s QB from past playoffs is his trust in weapons beyond his pair of super stars in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Having game-breakers like Bryon Pringle (he leads the Chiefs in playoff touchdowns this year, with three) and Mecole Hardman and a running back who’s come in clutch like Jerick McKinnon is a luxury most elite QBs don’t have.
Against a Bengals pass defence that ranked 25th in total yards allowed, Mahomes and his weapons could feast.
Matchup to watch: Chase vs. everyone chasing him
Offensively, these teams are built quite similarly — dynamic weapons, depth, and a QB who loves to sling the ball. Defensively? Well, those numbers are actually pretty similar, too: The Chiefs’ pass defence actually ranked one spot worst than Cincinnati’s, and struggled against the deep ball.
That could spell trouble every time Chase is on the field. As mentioned above, the Chiefs had no answer for Chase in that Week 17 loss to the Bengals — and that was with defensive leader Tyrann Mathieu on the field.
One of the biggest stories lost in the high-scoring madness of last Sunday’s Chiefs-Bills showdown was the early departure of Mathieu, who entered concussion protocol early in the first quarter. Kansas City’s defensive squad clearly struggled without their vocal leader, and while they managed to shut down top Bills receiver Stefon Diggs, they left an unlikely hero in Gabriel Davis wide open on several occasions.
It’s unclear just yet whether Mathieu will be cleared to play Sunday. He was still in protocol Friday, but has twice practised with the team and had head coach Andy Reid expressing some optimism about his status despite the star safety officially being listed as questionable.
