How do you define a successful season?
For some, it’s Super Bowl or bust. For others, even just being among the 14 post-season teams feels like a win. Among the six clubs vying to represent the AFC in February, you’ll find a wide array of meanings and motivations.
And then there’s the Kansas City Chiefs, whose success — back-to-back Super Bowls, and a search for a third — outshines them all. For now, anyway. Kansas City’s drive for a third straight championship begins in the Divisional Round. For now, they’ll watch and wait for their first opponent to emerge from this weekend’s wild-card matchups.
The Houston Texans beat the Los Angeles Chargers before the Baltimore Ravens topped the Pittsburgh Steelers to open the playoff schedule on Saturday.
Here’s a look at the final AFC wild-card game on the docket.
No. 7 Denver Broncos @ No. 2 Buffalo Bills | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Buffalo Bills were supposed to take a step back. With major subtractions on both sides of this roster over the off-season, the club put even more pressure on Josh Allen to propel this team back to the top of the AFC East for the fifth straight season.
Not only did Allen get them there, claiming the No. 2 seed in the conference, he also compiled a compelling MVP case in the process.
The Denver Broncos were supposed to take a step forward, but few expected them to make the leap into the post-season already. The young squad led by veteran coach Sean Payton earned their way into the post-season thanks to Bo Nix’s strong rookie campaign and a defence blooming before our eyes… and they get rewarded with a trip to Buffalo in January.
Whether the Broncos have arrived a year early or are right on time will be determined Sunday in Buffalo.
One key question for the Broncos: Can Denver’s pass rush bring down Josh Allen?
He’s dynamic. He’s dangerous. He’s fast, and he’s physical, and he’s very likely the league’s most valuable player. Among the many impressive adjectives used to describe Josh Allen’s spectacular season, we should also add ‘unsackable.’
Almost unsackable, anyway. Through 16 games, he was sacked just 14 times — a testament to his solid offensive line, surely, as well as his own command over the game and ability to improvise with great success.
Can he stay on his feet against Denver? That’s a big ask, considering the Broncos’ greatest strength is in their ability to get after the QB. The team in orange leads the league in sacks this year, with 63 on the season — nine more than second-place Baltimore. Nik Bonitto sits third league-wide in sacks (13.5), while teammate Jonathan Cooper isn’t far behind, with 10.5. Zach Allen’s QB pressure numbers, meanwhile, have him nearly in a league of his own.
One key question for the Bills: Who draws the Surtain assignment?
This is just a different way of asking the same question we’ve been pondering since the departure of Stefon Diggs last spring: Who is Josh Allen’s No. 1 receiver?
What began as a projected weakness has become a great strength of these Bills, with Allen distributing the ball across the offence and keeping opposing defences on their toes. That dynamic is what makes this defensive matchup so intriguing. Because while there’s no doubt Denver’s leading defender, cornerback Pat Surtain II, can eliminate a team’s top target… what happens if you don’t actually have a clear No. 1? How Denver approaches that question — how they maximize their All-Pro CB — could tell us a lot about how this game goes.
Receiver Khalil Shakir has emerged as Allen’s top target, with 821 yards on the year, touchdowns have been distributed pretty evenly — Mack Hollins has five, Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman each have four, and a total of 13 different players have caught a TD pass. (Even Allen has a TD catch to his name!)
That dynamic nature of Buffalo’s attack, supplemented by a strong run game — the Bills have scored more rushing TDs than any other team this year — make them an interesting case study for Denver’s defensive designs.
