The contrast between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers couldn’t be more stark. The former franchise is in the post-season for the eighth straight year, while the latter is appearing in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years. That about says it all.
It’s experience versus a young upstart and adding to the story of the American League wild-card series is that Tigers manager A.J. Hinch gets a chance to face off against the team he once led to a World Series championship.
Meanwhile, in the other AL wild-card matchup, the Baltimore Orioles will play the Kansas City Royals. The Royals are in the same space that Baltimore occupied last season in that nobody expected them to be here, especially since Kansas City lost 106 games in 2023. You could say they’re playing with house money.
The Orioles, however, have been operating all season with heightened expectations. The contention window is firmly open for the club and it needs to maximize the prime of its young, talented roster.
Now onto the specifics…
DETROIT TIGERS (86-76) vs. HOUSTON ASTROS (88-73)
Astros won the season series, 4-2. (Total score of 29-27).
What’s working for the Tigers:
Tarik Skubal is the standout here. He’ll win the AL Cy Young award and is a major reason why the Tigers are in the October dance. Hinch’s impact must be highlighted, too. The veteran skipper is among the very best and his guidance on a 2024 Tigers club that sold at the deadline is immeasurable. Hinch’s mixing and matching of the bullpen down the stretch was masterful and that’s a clear strength of the team. The relief corps ranked fifth in the majors with a 3.55 ERA this season and will be relied upon heavily in the wild-card series.
What’s working for the Astros:
The lineup features familiar October faces in Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and, potentially, Yordan Alvarez (more on him below). That core has plenty of post-season wins under its belt and won’t shy away from the moment. The bullpen, anchored by closer Josh Hader, is legit and boasts a wealth of experience. However, starting pitching is what could really set the Astros apart this month and their rotation trio of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Yusei Kikuchi possesses the ability to overwhelm any offence.
Potential Achilles heel for the Tigers:
The offence. The team ranked 19th in MLB in runs scored and 24th in home runs. Scan the lineup and not only are there no superstars, but there’s only one elite, everyday hitter — Riley Greene. Teams face much better pitching in the post-season, especially in a best-of-three series, and the Tigers’ offence will be in tough if the wild-card games turn into a slugfest with the Astros.
Potential Achilles heel for the Astros:
The health of Alvarez. The slugger is a certified post-season monster with a .949 OPS over his 58 career playoff games and his presence changes the way opponents approach the Astros lineup. However, he sprained his right knee sliding into second base on Sept. 22 and hasn’t played since. He didn’t travel with the club to Cleveland for its final series of the season and, as of Monday, his availability for the wild-card series wasn’t clear.
It’ll all come down to…
A Game 1 win by Skubal is crucial, but that’s obvious. If the Tigers lose that contest, they’re in trouble. But let’s go with Hinch as the answer here. He’s pulled all the right levers in getting his Tigers to the post-season and he’ll have to continue to do so if they’re going to beat his former club.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (86-76) vs. BALTIMORE ORIOLES (91-71)
Orioles won season series, 4-2. (Total score of 29-27).
What’s working for the Royals:
Everything starts with Bobby Witt Jr. He’s a 10.4-WAR player and, if it weren’t for the otherworldly Aaron Judge, Witt Jr. would be the unanimous choice for AL MVP. This is his first crack at October and it’s good for the game when stars get to play on the big stage. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo aren’t household names, yet have been two of the very best starting pitchers in baseball — they combined for 9.6 wins above replacement, better than any duo in the AL this season. The bullpen is comprised of unheralded relievers but has been getting the job done in September, when games mattered most.
What’s working for the Orioles:
GM Mike Elias made one of the best moves of the off-season when he traded for Corbin Burnes. The ace right-hander arrived as advertised and finished the season with a 2.92 ERA across 32 starts and 194.1 innings. He’s the horse the Orioles didn’t have when they were swept in the division series by the Rangers last year. Meanwhile, the club’s 235 home runs were just two behind the MLB-leading Yankees this season. Gunnar Henderson (37 homers, .893 OPS) and Anthony Santander (44 homers, .814 OPS) are enjoying monster campaigns.
Potential Achilles heel for the Royals:
Protection for Witt Jr. If the O’s decide to pitch around the superstar, the rest of the Royals lineup will need to step up. That’s where Vinnie Pasquantino comes in. The first baseman drove in 97 runs this season and his regular spot in the lineup is the No. 3 hole, right behind Witt Jr. However, Pasquantino broke his right thumb on Aug. 29 and hasn’t played since. He could return for the wild-card series, but even if he comes back ahead of his initial timeline, will Pasquantino be an effective contributor?
Potential Achilles heel for the Orioles:
This is a glaring one: The bullpen. The Orioles better hope their starting pitchers go deep into games because the relief corps can make the later innings an adventure for manager Brandon Hyde. In September, Baltimore’s bullpen ranked second last in MLB with a 5.31 ERA. Now, granted, that number was partially inflated by Craig Kimbrel’s dismal month, which ultimately led to his release. Trade deadline acquisition Seranthony Dominguez has looked good since taking over the closer’s role, but he’s got just one post-season save on his resume.
It’ll all come down to…
How much breathing room Baltimore’s hitters can create for the pitching staff. The bullpen is wobbly but if the offence can put some runs on the board, it would alleviate pressure. If you’re an Orioles fan, you’re not going to be comfortable during a low-scoring game heading into the later innings.
