Analyzing how Blue Jays SS Bo Bichette got his mojo back

The narrative arc of Bo Bichette’s 2025 season is about as clear-cut as it gets.

In the first month or so, the shortstop showed virtually no thump, and his performance justified fears that his nightmare 2024 was more than an injury-fuelled mulligan. Since early May, the power faucet has been turned on, making it clear that the offensive excellence he displayed from 2019 to 2023 hasn’t flown the coop.

Since Bichette’s first home run on May 3, he’s hitting .270/.316/.490 with a 126 wRC+, precisely the number he posted across the first five seasons of his career.

As Bichette’s production begins to look ordinary — in the context of his high standards — there’s one aspect of his performance at the plate that’s been remarkable, which is his clutch performance.

No player who’s logged 50 or more plate appearances with runners in scoring position this season can match Bichette’s 1.085 OPS, and he’s been even better in high-leverage (1.195 OPS), delivering some of the most important hits of Toronto’s season. 

Success or failure in crucial situations has an interesting place in baseball discussions because there is no doubt that it affects the win-loss column, and certain players often get lauded or criticized based on how they do in big spots. On the other hand, statistics in clutch situations usually come from samples too small to draw firm conclusions, and players’ reputations for clutchness are often warped by a couple of defining moments.

For example, most Blue Jays fans would probably tell you that Edwin Encarnacion was clutch because he drove in plenty of runs and hit one of the biggest home runs in Blue Jays history.

However, he also had performed better in low leverage (.831 OPS) than high leverage (.809 OPS) in his career, and his overall playoff slash line (.216/.324/.360) was well below his usual standards. 

A counter example would be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Many Blue Jays fans would tell you that Guerrero doesn’t tend to deliver in big moments — and to be fair, his minuscule playoff resume is not impressive. At the same time, the first baseman’s 897-game regular season track record tells the story of a hitter who is extremely consistent across various situations:

All of this is to say we’re in murky waters when we talk about who’s clutch and who’s not. With that acknowledgement in mind, it might be time to acknowledge that Bichette is a clutch hitter.

If 25 pedestrian playoff plate appearances (with a .273/.320/.318 line) are enough to disqualify the shortstop in your book, fine. To some degree, this is subjective, but what Bichette has done in 2025 is reinforcing a career-long trend.

The difference in Bichette’s numbers is even more pronounced when it comes to bases-empty versus runners-on scenarios.

These splits tend to be a curiosity rather than anything actionable, but we’re dealing with a sizeable sample here. We’re also talking about a player who inhabits a leadoff role that is structured specifically to hit with the bases empty more often than other spots in the lineup.

Luckily for the Blue Jays, the club’s ninth hitters have overperformed in 2025, which has helped grant Bichette more RISP opportunities than most leadoff hitters. With Toronto getting a 105 wRC+ out of its nine hole — the second-best number in the majors — Bichette has accumulated the third-most plate appearances with runners in scoring position of any leadoff hitter.

That trend will be tough to count on in the coming weeks. For all Bichette’s success in the leadoff spot, it might be worth considering if he can help the Blue Jays in a middle-of-the-lineup role. Toronto has one of MLB’s most accomplished leadoff hitters ready as a viable alternative, as George Springer is posting a career-best walk rate (12.8 per cent) and an OBP better than anything he’s managed since 2020 (.358).

To be fair, any talk about players’ situational performance and lineup construction is a discussion about extracting some of the fringiest value a roster has to offer. Still, the Blue Jays carry 52.3 per cent playoff odds and need any advantage they can get.

Putting a player posting MLB-best numbers in run-scoring opportunities — and a lengthy career pattern of thriving in those spots — probably isn’t the best way to maximize his talents.

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