Analyzing Morgan Rielly’s impact against Lightning in Round 1

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Analyzing Morgan Rielly’s impact against Lightning in Round 1

As the longest-serving Maple Leafs player, Morgan Rielly has seen some things.

He has been a part of both lottery and championship-calibre teams, but one thing the defenceman has not experienced in his 10 NHL seasons is what it feels like to win a playoff series. If the Maple Leafs are able to close out the Tampa Bay Lightning and advance to the second round for the first time in 19 years, Rielly’s performance will have had a lot to do with it.

“One of the things that happens when the playoffs begin, everything goes back to zero,” Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe told reporters Monday. “If you maybe aren’t happy with how things finished, then you get a fresh, clean slate to get right back at it. Morgan, of all of our players, has been here the longest and has a great appreciation for how difficult it is to win at this time of the year and wants to win as bad or more than anybody. I think you just see that in the urgency and the level that he plays at, and he’s found ways to contribute offensively, which is a big part of who he is and what he does for us.”


Rielly’s fingerprints are all over the series with six points in four games, including the overtime winner in Game 3 and the game-tying goal late in Game 4. In Game 2, he became the first defenceman in 35 years to record four primary assists in a playoff game. (There was also his hit on Brayden Point that sparked a melee in Game 3.)

By his standards, Rielly had a rough season on the scoresheet, recording four goals and 41 points in 65 games (21 points at 5-on-5). Some of that was out of his control; his on-ice shooting percentage at 5-on-5 dropped from 10.4 per cent in 2021-22 to 8.0 per cent. The Maple Leafs went from scoring 6.58 goals above expected last season to 3.72 goals below expected this season with Rielly on the ice at 5-on-5.

Rielly, who suffered a knee injury in November that kept him out for 15 games, still pushed play up ice at a high rate, averaging 20.9 possession-driving plays per 20 minutes at 5-on-5 — sixth most out of 287 defencemen who played at least 100 minutes in that situation. (Possession-driving plays include controlled exits and entries, as well as passes toward the attacking net.)

But because Rielly did not consistently turn those plays into points, his mistakes on defence attracted more attention. In fairness, Rielly was actually a tad better defensively this season (0.82 xGA per 20 at 5-on-5) than last season (0.88). 

Now that Rielly is getting the bounces that eluded him during the regular season, his confidence appears to have skyrocketed. It is evident in the way he has been using his powerful stride to create scoring opportunities. (Toronto is shooting 14.5 per cent at 5-on-5 with Rielly on the ice in the series.)


“He’s so deceptive,” Maple Leafs forward Ryan O’Reilly told reporters Monday. “As a forward, even in practice, you go out against him and see the way he moves, you think you have him, you think you’re in the lane. He’s just so smooth with the puck.”

Rielly will never be recognized for his defensive prowess, but that is not what has made him valuable to the Maple Leafs in this Round 1 series and in general. There is not another defenceman on the roster who can affect a game so drastically with the puck on his stick.

All stats from Sportlogiq

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