Thursday was a compelling day on social media if you’re a baseball fan.
However, if you’re a supporter of the Toronto Blue Jays or New York Mets, it ended in agony.
The Los Angeles Dodgers were reportedly interested in Kyle Tucker all off-season, but the Blue Jays and Mets were considered the clear front-runners for the outfielder as his free agency progressed into this week.
That carried into Thursday and as the day unfolded, fake “insiders” lobbed grenades into the discourse on X with reports that Tucker to the Blue Jays was a done deal.
Mets owner Steve Cohen even added to the fervour with his own posts:
Then, not long after, news finally broke on Tucker’s landing spot. The Dodgers had indeed landed the star, surprising the entire baseball world with a creative contract that featured mind-boggling dollar figures.
Here’s a closer look at the deal and how it impacts everybody involved.
The deal
Tucker agrees to a four-year, $240-million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The contract includes $30 million in deferrals and contains opt-outs after the second and third seasons. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the net present value of it is $57.1 million per year, a number that’s the highest annual value in MLB history.
Juan Soto previously set the record last off-season, with a $51-million AAV.
The runners-up
As mentioned, the Blue Jays and Mets are on the podium here, standing below the gold-medal winning Dodgers. For the Blue Jays and their fans, this one particularly stings, as colleague Shi Davidi explained. If and how the club pivots will be interesting to watch and we should know soon if the Blue Jays’ plans include Cody Bellinger.
Cohen and the Mets also have a right to feel frustrated after offering a four-year, $220-million deal, according to reports, that fell just short of the one Tucker accepted from the Dodgers.
The player
Tucker was the clear No. 1 free agent this off-season, thanks in large part to his elite hitting prowess. The left-handed hitter has elite strike-zone judgment with a walk percentage that profiles in the 96th percentile and a chase percentage in the 98th percentile. His discipline has grown stronger over the past three years, during which he has drawn 223 walks compared to 234 strikeouts.
That’s truly special stuff, and for the sake of comparison, Blue Jays’ first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has drawn 220 walks compared to 290 strikeouts over the same span.
Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, was the fifth-overall pick by the Houston Astros in 2015 and played his first seven MLB seasons with that organization before he was dealt to the Chicago Cubs in December 2024. He owns a lifetime .273/.358/.507 batting line but was impacted by injuries to his right ring finger and left calf during his lone season in Chicago. That led to him hitting .266/.377/.464 with 22 home runs and 25 homers over 136 games.
A small fracture in his right shin in 2024 limited Tucker to 78 games that season, so some questions about how he will age are warranted. However, make no mistake, when Tucker is on the field, he’s an impact player. He’s a plus baserunner despite a low sprint speed and also carries a strong arm that helps compensate for his lack of range (-2 outs above average in 2025).
Tucker has averaged 5.1 wins above replacements over the past five seasons and even in his shortened 2024 campaign, he still managed to put up 4.7 WAR.
The fit
The Dodgers’ two major needs this off-season were in the bullpen and the outfield, and the club responded by inking the best available closer in Edwin Diaz and the best outfielder in Tucker. As a result, the club’s in a strong position to contend for a third-straight World Series championship.
The fact that the Dodgers beat out the Blue Jays, their opponent in the 2025 Fall Classic, for Tucker just adds to the organization’s mystique.
Consider the Dodgers’ potential batting order for next season:
- DH: Shohei Ohtani
- SS: Mookie Betts
- 1B: Freddie Freeman
- RF: Kyle Tucker
- C: Will Smith
- 3B: Max Muncy
- LF: Teoscar Hernandez
- 2B: Tommy Edman
- CF: Andy Pages
The market
MLB Trade Rumours forecasted an 11-year, $400-million deal for Tucker. While the dollar figure he ended up receiving was $160 million lower, Tucker figures to have the opportunity to make up that amount and much more in his next contract, if he remains productive.
If he plays out the entire four-year deal with L.A., Tucker would become a free agent again at age 32. For context, Alex Bregman turns that age in March and just received a five-year, $175-million deal from the Cubs.
Translation: Tucker is doing well now and could be doing even better later in his career.
The next domino
As mentioned, Bellinger is the next domino, but Bellinger specifically should see his market benefit. Like Tucker, he’s a left-handed-hitting outfielder, and while he might not be as offensively accomplished as his counterpart, Bellinger isn’t that far off.
He owns a career .817 OPS compared to Tucker’s .865 mark, however, Bellinger is a much better defender — he posted seven OAA in 2025 — and has extensive experience at all three outfield positions, as well as first base.
