In what’s now a five-game series, every decision the Toronto Blue Jays make will become progressively more meaningful. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ Game 2 victory shifted the ZIPS post-season odds back in L.A.’s favour at 59.1 per cent. Another Dodgers win in Game 3 would skyrocket them.
With that in mind, here are some of the choices Blue Jays manager John Schneider and his staff will consider in Game 3.
How should the Blue Jays line things up against Tyler Glasnow?
Springer — DH
Lukes — LF
Guerrero Jr. — 1B
Bichette — 2B
Varsho — CF
Kirk — C
Barger — RF
Clement — 3B
Gimenez — SS
Bench
Tyler Heineman
Ty France
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Davis Schneider
Myles Straw
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The World Series shifts to California as the Toronto Blue Jays look for their first title in 32 years against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Watch Game 3 on Monday at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+.
The Blue Jays’ plan with Bichette in Game 1 was to try to get him three looks at Blake Snell and lift him from there. And in Game 2, Bichette began on the bench before pinch-hitting with two out in the seventh and finishing the game at second base.
That cautious build-up, followed by Sunday’s off day, means Bichette ought to be ready to return to the starting lineup for Game 3, ideally getting two or three plate appearances against Glasnow before the Blue Jays play it by ear from there. Schneider indicated prior to Game 2 that he’d be fine with Bichette playing nine innings in Game 3. However, the Blue Jays will want to be mindful of the fact that they’re playing three games in three days, with each game becoming increasingly important.
It’s been over a month since George Springer played the field, and considering the Blue Jays didn’t throw him out there in Game 2 to get Bichette’s bat in the lineup, it likely isn’t going to happen in the series. So, Springer DH’s while Bichette gets another start at second base, where he held his own in Game 1.
After getting dominated by Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2, the Blue Jays’ offence needs to find a way to get Glasnow out of the game quickly so it can face a weak Dodgers bullpen with a 6.16 ERA this post-season — the sixth highest in MLB history among post-season teams with at least 10 games played.
Against Glasnow, that likely means utilizing more patience than the Blue Jays did against Yamamoto, who finished 24-of-32 plate appearances in four pitches or fewer. Damage can be done against Glasnow’s fastball when he needs to use it to get back in a count. And so far this post-season, Glasnow’s thrown a fastball over 70 per cent of the time when a hitter gets ahead.
How long will Max Scherzer’s leash be?
Scherzer certainly looked fresh making his first start in three weeks for Game 4 of the ALCS, tying his highest average fastball velocity (94.2 m.p.h.) in an outing over the last two seasons. And he’ll be on extended rest again for the fifth World Series start of his career, which means the 41-year-old shouldn’t have any issues carrying his stuff deep into the game.
Ultimately, Scherzer can earn an extended outing with his effectiveness, which is what he did against the Mariners, leaning on his firmer fastball to throw 73 per cent first-pitch strikes before tempting hitters to expand with his secondaries. Scherzer got swings with all 10 curveballs he threw, despite locating only two of them in the zone
Now, Scherzer allowed as high a flyball rate as any pitcher in the league this season, and the Dodgers’ lineup is stacked with hitters trying to elevate pitches and find the seats. No team in baseball hit more homers or had a higher HR/FB rate at home this season. Even an outing that hums along without incident for three or four innings could unravel in a hurry.
If Scherzer manages the quality of contact he allows, suppressing exit velocities and changing levels to keep hitters from finding sweet spots, he can get away with a wealth of flyball outs as he did against the Mariners, who hit into eight. He’ll likely allow a homer at some point, but you can live with it if there’s no one on base.
But if Scherzer’s falling behind hitters or getting barrelled regularly, Schneider will need to think about putting his life on the line and going out to the mound to lift Scherzer earlier than he did in Seattle.
How should the Blue Jays deploy their bullpen?
Everyone’s well rested following Sunday’s off day and no Dodgers hitter has seen a Blue Jays reliever twice. That gives Schneider every option he could need to get a tight lead across the finish line.
Despite the hall-of-famers atop the lineup, it’s a couple of hitters in the middle of the Dodgers order who have looked the most dangerous in the series — Will Smith and Max Muncy. They both homered in Game 2 when getting their third looks at Kevin Gausman and have now reached base in nearly half their combined plate appearances in the series.
It can be easy for a pitcher to fall into the trap of letting their guard down against that pocket of the lineup after successfully navigating Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman atop the order. But Smith, Muncy, and Teoscar Hernandez, between them, make their livings off punishing mistakes. So, Schneider may want to consider targeting them with someone like Seranthony Dominguez or Louis Varland instead of letting them get a third look at Scherzer.
