LAS VEGAS – Just two American League teams finished with better records than the Blue Jays in 2022, and both are facing potentially turbulent off-seasons.
At this week’s GM Meetings, two of the executives in the spotlight were James Click, the Astros GM who’s without a contract for 2023 despite leading Houston to a World Series title, and Farhan Zaidi of the Giants, who did little to dispel the notion that San Francisco could be a serious suitor for longtime Yankee Aaron Judge.
“I think from a financial standpoint there’s nobody that would be out of our capability,” Zaidi said. “And then it’ll just be a question of whether there’s mutual interest.”
Those remarks won’t come as a surprise to Yankees GM Brian Cashman, but they certainly don’t make his off-season any easier. And even beyond Click’s unsettled status, the Astros may lose Justin Verlander to free agency along with Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Rafael Montero.
In contrast to the Yankees and Astros, the Blue Jays can have a relatively peaceful off-season if they so choose. They’ll be shopping for pitching no matter what – GM Ross Atkins must augment the existing rotation and bullpen meaningfully – but the interest in their three young catchers is a good problem to have. It’s certainly far better than having uncertainty at the GM level or facing the possibility that your 62-home run outfielder will leave.
Under those circumstances, the Blue Jays appear free to operate at their own pace. Atkins said he anticipates starting free agency at “full steam,” meaning there are at least some players the Blue Jays would like to sign sooner than later. At the same time, they don’t have to hold their breath on any one option.
If Ross Stripling wants to test free agency, that doesn’t have to hold up the Blue Jays’ plans elsewhere. If the Padres decide to offer Robert Suarez $46 million, the Blue Jays don’t need to counter at $47 million. Put simply, they can be aggressive without being over-aggressive.
With at least one starting pitcher and a high-upside reliever on the Blue Jays’ shopping list, it seems possible their 2023 payroll will surpass $200 million for the first time in franchise history. That’s not necessarily a lock, but it’s at least on the table. Remember, the Blue Jays are expected to be among the teams with interest in Verlander, just as they were last year, when some described them as a finalist for the future Hall of Famer.
With Verlander expected to draw widespread interest, the odds may not be great on that front, but such a signing would push the Blue Jays over $200 million, as would a deal for the likes of Xander Bogaerts or Carlos Correa, two players who will at least be on the Blue Jays’ radar as the off-season unfolds. If those players haven’t been ruled out, then neither has a $200 million payroll.
Speaking in general terms, Atkins said he expects continued support from ownership at Rogers Communications, which also owns Sportsnet.
“One of the greatest things about our situation and has been for a while is that we can take opportunities to Mark (Shapiro) and Mark can take those opportunities to Edward Rogers and we can consider them together,” Atkins said. “Every opportunity that we’ve taken to them, they’ve always been very open to our thoughts and wanting to make sure it aligns with our strategy.”
With that said, here are a few final notes and thoughts from the GM Meetings…
• The recent advent of the DH in the NL helps the Blue Jays, since Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen are good enough hitters to warrant time in that role. Another positive for the Blue Jays, as pointed out by a rival GM: maybe you can wait until March to round out your bullpen, but no team wants to start spring training without their catchers in place, creating a little added urgency to make deals.
• There was some speculation that the GM Meetings could move permanently to Arizona, where club executives could visit their Arizona Fall League players on the same trip.
• Since the GM Meetings took place during MLB’s quiet period, there weren’t many deals completed, so some chose to reminisce about past deals instead. One veteran agent recalled a lucrative multi-year deal for an unremarkable player who timed his walk-year perfectly only to regress immediately after joining his new team. Asked what the second-best offer for his client was that year, the agent responded without hesitation. “There wasn’t one,” he joked. In the age of analytics, those bad contracts are perhaps less frequent, but no GM wants to sign a deal so one-sided the industry’s still remarking on it a decade later. That’s why executives love mitigating risk by signing players to short-term deals where possible.
• One person with knowledge of the Blue Jays’ trade deadline approach said they never seriously pursued Noah Syndergaard over the summer. A lot can change in a few months, but it’s worth noting regardless.
• Asked about the Blue Jays’ second base plans, Atkins kept his options open, noting that Santiago Espinal, Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio could all factor in to the team’s 2023 plans. And since all three players can also handle other positions, the Blue Jays certainly have the flexibility to mix and match when necessary.
