TORONTO – Training camps so often bubble with giddy excitement and high hopes for the 82 winnable games laid out on the calendar.
This guy is fitter. That guy is stronger. So and so is faster. And am I crazy, or can you not just taste the chemistry our new winger has with his linemates?
It is against this familiar backdrop that Harvard man Alexander Kerfoot spills a refreshing dose of cold truth regarding the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2022-23 campaign.
“The regular season doesn’t mean nothin’, right?” says Kerfoot, who has felt firsthand how those wonderful winters can melt so swiftly come spring.
“It’s hard to win a playoff series in this league. We know that better than anyone right now. We’ve lost in do-or-die games the last couple of years. Those games can go either way, but we haven’t found a way to get over the hump.
“You try to learn from those experiences, but like I said, it doesn’t really mean much until we get over that hump — and we can’t get there now.”
By their own doing — or, rather, dying — the Maple Leafs are staring at a six-month slog during which it will be nearly impossible to sway favour.
In the court of public opinion, they simply cannot win until they do so in April.
Play soft? Show defensive cracks? Go through a power-play drought? Or, worst of all, fail to get timely saves from their gamble tandem of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov? Well, the knives will be out faster than a prison cafeteria shiv.
Light up the Jumbotron? Threaten their new club record of 115 regular-season points? Watch Mitch Marner run at 100 points and MVP Auston Matthews shoot for the Rocket threepeat? And the response will be something along the lines of: “We’ve seen this movie before. Let’s see what they do when it matters.”
Such is the bed the franchise has made.
Over this über-talented core’s six consecutive post-season series losses, the most recent three despite home-ice advantage, Leafs Nation’s hope has devolved into restlessness. Now it’s trying to stave off apathy.
Two things: We’re not convinced this version of the Maple Leafs is better than last year’s, and we’re not sure that matters much.
The goaltending, although solid in Toronto’s dominant exhibition run, remains a crapshoot.
“Honestly, we don’t pay too much attention to the goalies unless the puck goes in,” says defenceman Morgan Rielly, wryly. “They’re both doing everything they can to get ready for the season so that’s nice to see.”
The lopsided blueline’s depth has already been tested by injury, and the departure of Ilya Lyubushkin cratered a hole on the right side that was not adequately filled. Jake Muzzin’s health is of some concern. So, too, is Mark Giordano’s age.
Morgan Rielly can’t skate 30 minutes a night, so Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin will be counted upon to take a giant step in their development. (Is it too late to clone T.J. Brodie?)
While the top line of Matthews, Marner and Michael Bunting (a bargain entering the final year of his deal) should continue to click along as one of the sport’s deadliest, John Tavares’s pre-season oblique injury and the departure of speedster Ilya Mikheyev are notable.
There’s a prime opportunity for a fringe forward or two — Nick Robertson? Calle Järnkrok? Zach Aston-Reese? Nicolas Aubé-Kubel? — to step up and make an impact.
The counterpoint to these doubts is that the other three Atlantic Division powers are all absorbing roster blows as well. Florida (sans Jonathan Huberdeau, Claude Giroux, MacKenzie Weegar and Ben Chiarot), Tampa Bay (so long, Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh), and Boston (three cheers for LTIR!) are not without their Kryptonite.
A healthy Toronto squad has as legitimate a bid as anyone to wear the Eastern Conference crown, and general manager Kyle Dubas is once again betting on the horses he knows best.
“I have full belief in our players, in our staff, and in our group that we are going to have a great season. My focus every single day will be on continuing to support them and continuing to make the decisions that put the team in the best position in the short and long run,” says Dubas, seemingly content to go down with the ship he’s built. Or steer it to nirvana.
“I don’t want to come across as the confidence being in myself. It is in the people that we have here — the players and the staff in all facets. I think it is a special group. That is where I am more than happy to go through the year, be evaluated on the year, and have the decision made. I believe in our group and know what we are capable of.”
Depending which side of the fence you stand, the architect’s approach to roster construction is either a sign of blind hubris or fierce loyalty.
“It means a lot to this group,” says Kerfoot, traded a thousand times on Twitter but not seriously put to market. “He’s got a lot of belief, a lot of faith in our team, in our organization, and he’s done everything that he can to instill that belief in us.
“It’s just about us going forward and fulfilling that belief. We gotta go out there and get it done.”
Should the Maple Leafs stumble once again in Round 1 — when it means somethin’, right? — and extend the franchise series drought to 19 years and waste another spring with the most dazzling collection of high-end forwards in club history, well, jobs will likely be lost.
Dubas treads into the winter without the security of a contract extension, and one of the great mysteries is whether he’ll be the one negotiating Matthews’ next deal, the one that could secure the centreman’s place atop the mountain as the Maple Leafs’ GOAT.
That Matthews’ full no-movement clause kicks in on July 1, the same day the son of Scottsdale will be eligible to recommit to his adopted home, is no minor wrinkle.
Dubas’s fate, coach Sheldon Keefe’s fate, and Matthews’ life choice could — should? — all be informed by how the Maple Leafs perform on the ice in 2022-23.
You can see it as pressure or view it as an opportunity. For some key principles, perhaps their last in this tired, wired town.
“It is another chance for us to change the story,” Dubas asserts.
“I know that nobody wants to hear what we have to say. They want to see what we do in action.”
Drop the puck.
Pick up a pen.
