To this point in the baseball off-season there’s been more talk than action, but with the tender deadline over with and MLB’s Winter Meetings about to begin Monday, that should change soon.
For the Toronto Blue Jays, that could mean a busy couple of weeks. On the eve of the virtual Winter Meetings, we check in with Sportsnet’s baseball writers on a variety of pressing topics related to the Blue Jays…
Blue Jays Newsletter
We’ve all heard plenty about top free agents like George Springer and DJ LeMahieu. Who’s one under-the-radar position player the Blue Jays ought to be considering in free agency?
Not sure if he counts as under the radar, but Ha-Seong Kim might be the ideal fallback if LeMahieu returns to the Yankees as expected. While he was primarily a shortstop with the Heroes in the KBO, he has 106 career games at third base, making him a fit on the hot corner and protection in the event Bo Bichette has to miss time. The combination of his age (25) and impressive offensive profile (.493 career slug with a .373 OBP) give him a chance to become a productive part of the Blue Jays’ core for an extended period, if the bat transitions.
I’m tempted to go with Jurickson Profar here, since he plays all over and he can hit a bit, but he battled the yips in 2019 and by the end of this season he was more left fielder than super utility type. For a team intent on improving its defence, I don’t think he’s the answer.
Instead, I’ll go with Brad Miller, the veteran utility player who can play second, third, left and even a little short. Along with that versatility, the 31-year-old offers a good batting eye (89th percentile walk rate) with some power (87th percentile barrel rate) and speed (61st percentile sprint speed). A left-handed hitter, he has a career .772 OPS against right-handed pitching, including an .828 mark against righties this past season. Simply put, players like Miller help teams in many ways. A one-year deal here would raise the floor for the 2021 Blue Jays without closing the door on bigger targets like LeMahieu.
James McCann. I know: how many catchers does a team need? The answer: this particular team needs a stabilizer behind the plate, and this 31-year-old right-handed hitter has a 3.8 WAR in the past two seasons – fifth among catchers – and his 116 wRC+ is eighth.
Yes, he only made 27 starts while sharing time with Yasmani Grandal but in a small sample size he improved his pitch framing last season and has made harder contact in the past two seasons, too. He isn’t J.T. Realmuto … although that wRC+ is actually better in that time than Realmuto’s. He isn’t Yadier Molina.
But he’s a dude who’s been around, overhauled his stance two years ago to become less up-right, has handled a variety of pitching and would allow the Blue Jays a bridge to the Alejandro Kirks and Gabriel Morenos while giving Danny Jansen somebody to lean on if, like me, you’re not ready to move on from him. There is a robust market for him, with several of his Chicago White Sox’s teammates lobbying on his behalf. Second choice? Didi Gregorius. I’d rather have him and sniff around next year’s big free agent class than trade for a year of Francisco Lindor.
I don’t know if Ha-Seong Kim is still under the radar, but the Blue Jays really ought to be in on him — 25-year-old shortstops with his talent and versatility are seldom available on the open market. He’s a half-year younger than Cavan Biggio and just put up a .921 OPS in KBO with more walks than strikeouts. MLB pitching is tougher to hit, of course, but ZIPS bakes that into its formula and still projects Kim to hit .274/.343/.477 in 2021. That would essentially make him Dansby Swanson (.274/.345/.464 in 2020). Even if there’s an initial adjustment period as he makes the jump in competition, Kim’s youth and athleticism suggests he still has plenty of room for growth.
Another useful addition would be Tommy La Stella. His polished, left-handed, high-contact bat would be a great fit in the Eric Sogard/Joe Panik role — playing three-to-four times a week at various spots around the infield. And I’ll give you one more: Oscar Colas. The 22-year-old Cuban outfielder (and sometimes left-handed pitcher with a mid-90’s fastball) is expected to be granted MLB free agency in the new year. He’s put up big numbers in Cuba and more recently Japan — and, like Kim, Colas’ age, athleticism and versatility make him a very rare commodity on the open market.
Trevor Bauer is clearly the top pitcher available this winter, but there are other quality free agents out there and names like Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are surfacing in trade rumours. Beyond Bauer, which name intrigues you most as a possible Jays target?
This isn’t a great free-agent pitching market — there’s a huge drop-off in ability behind Bauer, and names like Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and Jake Odorizzi all come with red flags. I’d be willing to bet on Garrett Richards’ stuff — he throws hard with elite spin and his injury history is of the acute variety (Tommy John; torn knee tendon covering first base) rather than the chronic. You could build an incentive-laden deal with him that escalates with innings pitched and even includes a vesting option. I’d also be open to a reunion with Taijuan Walker for the right price — say, $18-20 million over two years. But if you’re looking for something with a little more upside it probably has to come via trade. The Blue Jays explored acquiring Joe Musgrove at the deadline and it’d be worth re-visiting those discussions with Pittsburgh. Cleveland’s looking to shed salary, which could make Carlos Carrasco available; same for the Reds and Sonny Gray. I’d be making calls on both.
Liam Hendriks, c’mon home! I know he’s not a starter and I know the Blue Jays have options at the back end of the bullpen already and, yeah, there is something about bringing a guy back for a second time. Still, I’d rather have a guy who by WAR has been a top-five reliever since 2015, has a sub-2.00 FIP and in a shortened season set career highs in chase rate and swinging strikeout rate and a bunch of lows in stuff like ERA and xFIP, than a starter coming off an injury such as James Paxton.
Bauer’s good; that’s evident. But I’m also intrigued by one of his Reds teammates, Sonny Gray. He’s older than Bauer by 14 months, but at 31 Gray’s still throwing as hard as he did when he first broke into the league (93.0 m.p.h., on average). And while Bauer’s a great pitcher, Gray projects to generate nearly as much value in 2021, according to Steamer (3.4 WAR for Gray, 3.8 WAR for Bauer).
Plus, Gray’s contract underpays him pretty considerably with annual salaries of $10.17 million for 2021 and 2022. That means the acquisition cost could be pretty high in a trade, of course, but if you’re the Blue Jays that’s a conversation worth having.
Though it’s just one year of club control, Lance Lynn is a lot of what the Blue Jays need for their rotation. He’s durable, he gets deep into games, he induces poor contact (80th percentile for xwOBA and 70th for barrel percentage) and has some track record. He makes zero sense for the rebuilding Rangers, but at $9.33 million he’s terrific value, so trading for him won’t be easy.
Still, beyond Bauer, there’s lots of upside with volatility on the open market (James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, Corey Kluber), so paying up for Lynn might make more sense than an uncomfortable free-agent commitment, or assuming the three years and nearly $60 million Darvish has left.
Since the season ended, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been working hard in the Dominican Republic and he’s now visibly in better shape. Clearly, that’s a step in the right direction for Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays. In your view, how much does this change his outlook for 2021?
From a positional standpoint, I don’t think it changes very much for Guerrero, as the impression I have is that at most he’ll see only a handful of games at third base, all things being equal. But at the plate, it’s a real gamechanger. Check out this link and scroll to the bottom for a look at how different his swing was in July versus September. That’s not mechanical, that’s all body composition. The better his conditioning, the more he can use his strength and athleticism, and the more likely it is his full offensive abilities will be unleashed.
I don’t know, and I won’t until I can see whether he can play third base again. If he can … that opens all sorts of possibilities for the Blue Jays going forward, busting open a log-jam at first base which might allow me to land a defensive upgrade in the outfield while keeping, say, Teoscar Hernandez’s bat in the lineup. The guy was the only Blue Jays player to appear in all their games last season. I’m in less of a show-me-now phase with him than a lot of other folks.
It can’t hurt — and if Guerrero plays closer to his potential in 2021 it’ll be tempting for many to attribute that success entirely to his improved body composition, although I suspect maturity, experience, and a more refined plate approach will have just as much to do with it. We can’t forget he’s 21 and still developing. He’s a week older than Austin Martin. He’s a half-decade from entering what should be his prime and he ought to be getting better regardless of his weight. Really, I think Guerrero’s physical gains will have a greater impact on his longevity. It’ll lessen injury risk and increase his chances of playing productively well into his 30’s. He’s obviously an innately talented hitter — but all that talent’s wasted if he isn’t able to take the field to use it.
When Guerrero Jr. showed up to summer camp weighing upwards of 280 Lbs, he effectively closed the door to playing third base. Now, he’s opened it a little – but not nearly enough to call the position his own. The Blue Jays will add to their infield from outside the organization over the winter, and that will impact third base to some extent. The best guess at this point is that Guerrero Jr. keeps playing there as a way to keep options open, but starts fewer than 20 games there in 2021.
Last week, the Globe and Mail reported that Rogers Communications Inc., which also owns Sportsnet, is looking to demolish Rogers Centre and replace it with a new ballpark. That process would take years, of course, but what’s one suggestion you’d give the architect of the Blue Jays’ new home?
Rogers Centre sits right between Lake Ontario and the Toronto skyline, but from many seats in the ballpark you’d barely realize it. And maybe that’s just it: Rogers Centre is a multi-purpose event facility. The Blue Jays’ next home should be a ballpark, one that connects the city to the experience of being a fan.
Find a way architecturally to open the ballpark up to the city. Incorporate the skyline, the waterfront, the texture that surrounds the building. Think of the Roberto Clemente Bridge stretching beyond centre field in Pittsburgh; McCovey Cove in San Francisco Bay; the Wrigleyville rooftops in Chicago. Rogers Centre is dungeonous with the roof closed — and when it’s open, you’re sitting in a toilet bowl. You want the building to feel like a natural extension of the city, not a tumor growing on it. It’ll be tricky to pull off because you need a retractable roof and that’ll require support structures on all sides. Maybe Minute Maid Park in Houston and it’s large, sliding glass panels is a good jumping off point. I don’t know — I’m not an engineer. I just want the Blue Jays’ new ballpark to feel more open and connected to the city than its current one.
Put in one of those retractable roofs that doesn’t completely blot out the skyline. Better yet: build it in the Portlands and give me a water view while allowing the team to play at the Rogers Centre during construction. But that’s just me.
A press box behind home plate! Kidding (sort of). Seriously, though, there are a lot of obvious things you’d want, including an outfield that opens up to the downtown skyline and the CN Tower. But the Blue Jays also need a fan-accessible area that honours team history, be it a Hall of Fame or something akin to the Yankees’ Monument Park, to really connect between generations.
