TORONTO – One thing to always keep in mind about the Toronto Blue Jays as they are presently run is that this front office doesn’t jump without knowing where it’s landing.
Now, that’s a pretty sound practice in any business, not to mention life in general. But it also helps frame why general manager Ross Atkins would trade an electric, middle-of-the-order bat in Teoscar Hernandez to the Seattle Mariners for a Statcast-popping reliever in Erik Swanson and an intriguing but volatile pitching prospect in lefty Adam Macko.
In part, the return speaks to how the market valued one season of the two-time Silver Slugger-winning right-fielder, given that discussions got serious with 3-4 teams, according to Atkins. Then there’s the unstated asset also acquired by the Blue Jays – the estimated $12.7 million differential between what Swanson is projected to earn in his first trip through arbitration and what the Mariners are likely to pay Hernandez before he’s eligible for free agency next fall.
Combine that with some $6.5 million in savings created when Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer were both designated for assignment Tuesday and the Blue Jays suddenly have $19 million more to work with. And if they didn’t have some reasonable sense of how they can use that to improve the club – creating a hole in the cleanup spot for someone who so far has largely been a mid-leverage reliever isn’t exactly ace team-building – there’s no way this front office makes such a high-risk move within such a critical period of the current competitive window.
“That wasn’t a driving factor,” Atkins said of the newfound financial flexibility during a conference call Wednesday, “but it’s still a benefit – increased flexibility and increased opportunity on our roster.”
Nothing is guaranteed of course and there are plenty of teams intent on spending this winter, adding to the challenge the Blue Jays face, but they also have room to get creative now, too, by adding someone who pushes George Springer to right field either part time or full time.
One obvious option for the outfield is free-agent Brandon Nimmo, the high-on-base, left-handed hitting centre-fielder, and Atkins will surely check in with super-agent Scott Boras on that front. But with potential extensions for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alek Manoah, Matt Chapman and perhaps others on the horizons, the Blue Jays may very well be weary of putting another big ticket on the books alongside George Springer, Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman.
With that in mind, another Boras client, Cody Bellinger, would make an interesting fit on a one-year pillow deal if the Los Angeles Dodgers either deal him before or don’t tender him a contract before Friday’s deadline. A third Boras client, Joey Gallo, can play either corner and has 56 career games in centre field, and how different he looks in a post-shift world is something teams are spending lots of time on.
Then, of course, there’s the trade market, and as colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith outlined last week, there are several potential matches for Blue Jays should they choose to deal a catcher.
Those are still in play, although dealing either Alejandro Kirk – who batted cleanup 57 times last season, plus the two wild-card losses to Seattle – or Danny Jansen – who hit 15 homers in 248 plate appearances at the bottom of the lineup – on top of Hernandez risks depleting the power that was the club’s calling card.
And while Atkins acknowledged swapping Hernandez made subtracting another player off the big-league roster “somewhat” more difficult, he added that “if the return is towards your major-league team, then this past trade doesn’t impact the next one.”
That the Blue Jays are seeking “a more versatile offence,” in Atkins’ words, makes sense given how the past two years played out, but already a substantial amount of production is in need of replacement.
“I think we will be able to replace it with some of the players that were either not playing as much last year or from within and from the player-development system,” Atkins said of making up for Hernandez. “But there will also be other opportunities via trade and free agency and we will exhaust those.”
Hence, we come back to the Blue Jays not jumping without knowing where they’re going to land.
Atkins said “a lot of” the club’s focus thus far has been “on the run-prevention side and this created an opportunity for us.”
Swanson addresses a need for swing-and-miss in the bullpen having struck out 34 per cent of the hitters he faced last season and with three more seasons of contractual control, he does so without a significant financial investment.
That’s not an insignificant consideration as the Blue Jays, philosophically, have been reluctant to commit big dollars to their bullpen given the volatility inherent to the market. Swanson “could pitch really in any inning for us and the strikeouts are big,” said Atkins, adding later that despite the 29-year-old’s lack of track record, “his weapons project to be continuing to pitch well and what he did over the course of an entire year last year is very encouraging for us.”
Macko, the 21-year-old born in Slovakia who moved to Canada as a teenager and was drafted in the seventh round by the Mariners out of Alberta’s Vauxhall Academy of Baseball, gives the Blue Jays a future piece, especially if they can keep him healthy.
The lefty struck out 60 batters in 38.1 innings over eight starts at high-A Everett this season, including two strong outings against the Vancouver Canadians, the Blue Jays’ affiliate, before shoulder tendinitis sidelined him. He returned to appear in seven Arizona Fall League games, striking out 14 but walking 13 in 13.1 innings of work.
One rival evaluator praised the Macko add, describing him as raw with “great stuff” and a chance “to be really, really good.”
And while the Blue Jays have liked him ever since the 2019 draft, there’s some gamble there as “has not logged an entire season of innings (and that) would be probably the reason he was available,” said Atkins.
“If we can put him into a position where he can sustain and haul a full season of innings, he could become easily one of the better prospects in baseball,” the GM added. “He’s got the arsenal to do that. Like with any trade, there’s risk. He was a prospect that we’ve had our eye on for some time and we’re very fortunate that he was available.”
Every prospect deepens the farm system and between turning one year of Hernandez into three years of Swanson and potentially six years of Macko, the Blue Jays ensured they were keeping the asset alive beyond a compensatory draft pick at the end of next season.
Had they remained together, a parting then seemed imminent, as previous extension talks between the sides didn’t get anywhere and beloved as Hernandez is, he could also be maddening with his inconsistencies and concentration lapses.
Atkins insisted the pending free agency wasn’t a major part of the club’s considerations, adding that he “felt like that could have been there and … the potential of him being a Blue Jay in 2024 still remains unless he gets extended by Seattle.”
Sure. But of more immediate concern is 2023 and in acquiring some help for the bullpen, the Blue Jays added an outfielder to a shopping list that also includes at least one starting pitcher, but more likely two. They’re in the air now and need to land exactly where they expected.
