TORONTO — The 2004 season began with promise and ended in misery for the Toronto Blue Jays, whose post-season aspirations quickly met an injury-fuelled 67-94 reality check. Roy Halladay, Carlos Delgado, Vernon Wells and Orlando Hudson all missed time, exposing a system lacking depth. During the campaign’s post-mortem, then-general manager J.P. Ricciardi urged patience for the organization’s restocking, which needed time to produce a steady stream of players.
“In ‘07, whether I’m here or someone else is here, they’re going to be sitting on a powder keg,” vowed Ricciardi, looking toward what was then slated to be the end of his contract. “They’re going to be able to push a button and there’s going to be a lot of players coming.”
The assembly line never ramped up to meet demand, as seasons of 87, 83 and 86 wins from 2006-08 undermined its inadequate production. When those Blue Jays teams needed options to cover injury or underperformance, or assets to use in trade, the reserves were often barren.
Perhaps in a parallel universe in which they picked Troy Tulowitzki instead of Ricky Romero in the 2005 draft, the outcome was different. In this timeline, the drift into baseball’s wilderness continued until the magic of 2015, a run difficult to sustain for other reasons.
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Regardless, the powder keg Ricciardi promised nearly two decades ago appears to now be in place as the Blue Jays begin spring training at their new complex in Dunedin, Fla. The franchise is sitting on a strong and deep big-league roster featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo. Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and augmented by the free-agent additions of George Springer and Marcus Semien. Hyun-Jin Ryu fronts a utilitarian pitching staff that includes the elite upside of Nate Pearson. Austin Martin headlines a farm system ranked third by both Baseball America and Keith Law of The Athletic. With only some $65 million in guaranteed money on the books for 2022 and nearly $60 million coming off the books this fall, they’re positioned to again be major players in free agency in the coming off-season.
A case can be made that since Pat Gillick’s brilliant initial build of the franchise began bearing fruit, the Blue Jays haven’t been positioned this well for an extended run of success. The conservative and guarded playing out of the 2015 AL East champion team and the teardown that followed have allowed president and CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins to lay an impressive foundation.
Now, there are micro level issues that need to be addressed and vulnerabilities that could prevent success this summer, to be sure, and the chaos tied to their pandemic-caused inability to play in Toronto is an ongoing obstacle.
But at a macro level, the Blue Jays are set up for several years of legitimate contention, maybe even more than that if the farm system has enough future core pieces to fuel the inevitable roster turnover caused by age, attrition and financial realities.
The challenge is in turning all that organizational capital into post-season berths, and, eventually, a World Series championship, beginning with the 2021 season.
By and large, the Blue Jays head into camp as a relatively finished product, looking more to sort out things like playing time and roles as opposed to deciding roster spots.
Positionally, they are largely set barring injuries, with the most significant question likely tied to whether Alejandro Kirk or Reese McGuire, who is out of options, ends up on the team as the second catcher behind Danny Jansen.
The everyday job at the moment is Jansen’s to lose, with his bat to determine whether it stays his or not, while Kirk’s fate is in large measure tied to how well he addressed the club’s concerns about his durability over the winter. In pictures he appears fitter, and if the Blue Jays feel he’s capable of handling 35-40 per cent of the workload, it’s likely he breaks with the club.
Beyond that, there’s relatively little to sort.
Semien is transitioning to regular duty at second base and must adjust to regular turns on the right side of the diamond. Biggio, likely the club’s only left-handed hitting regular, is set to get most of the reps at third base, although the Blue Jays will give Guerrero Jr. some time on the hot corner while expecting him to be the primary first baseman. If all goes well, Guerrero Jr. could be an option for roughly 50 games at third.
Springer’s arrival solidifies centre field and shifts Randal Grichuk back to right, where the matter of splitting playing time between him and Teoscar Hernandez must be sorted. Designated hitter at-bats figure into that mix as well, but manager Charlie Montoyo will also have to be mindful of utilizing Rowdy Tellez, who could end up as one of only three or four left-handed bats on the roster.
Joe Panik, back on a minor-league contract, is expected to break camp as a utilityman and third option at shortstop beyond Bichette and Semien, rounding out the position player group at 12, as a nine-man bullpen seems likely to begin.
That’s due to both some volatility in the rotation and the massive jump in workload from the pandemic-shortened 60-game campaign last year. As things stand, Ryu is set to be followed by some combination of Robbie Ray, Pearson, Stephen Matz, Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling.
Each comes with question marks that makes it difficult to properly project what they’ll bring to the table. Ray was a mess last year but doesn’t need a rebound to his all-star form of 2017 to be an important piece, as even a return to his steady 2019 form would help stabilize the staff. Pearson will face workload concerns all season (think Aaron Sanchez in 2016 and amplify it), Matz and Roark are both looking for bounce backs while Stripling is a capable swingman also looking to recapture some past form.
With Jake Odorizzi and Taijuan Walker, who seems to have some momentum with the New York Mets, still available, signing one of them to add more stability seems to make sense. But the Blue Jays may be out of money at this point, and may want to save requests for special financial allotments for the trade deadline.
If the rotation remains as is, then a bullpen expected to include Stripling or whomever doesn’t make the starting staff is sure to be deployed as creatively and aggressively as it was last year. Like Stripling, Tyler Chatwood and Trent Thornton, who is throwing bullpens as he returns from elbow surgery, can provide bulk relief. Julian Merryweather and his impressive repertoire are an intriguing possibility in a similar type of role or in leverage use.
That group will need to bridge the gap to late-game arms Kirby Yates, Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, David Phelps and Ryan Borucki. A.J. Cole, back on a minor-league deal, is one non-roster pitcher with a real shot at breaking camp. Carrying a few relievers with options will be essential to ensure fresh bullpen arms can be added to the roster as needed.
Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay and Patrick Murphy, each of whom showed well out of the bullpen last year, appear destined to be starter depth this year.
Montoyo will face more pressure this year managing playing time on a deeper roster, but after navigating the club around the quicksand of 2020, that should be doable. Still, the scrutiny on him and the rest of the coaching staff will only intensify, both externally from fans and, more importantly, internally from players facing the demand of expectations.
Every little thing matters now that the clock is running on this new competitive window.
For this current cycle, the Blue Jays likely have one more mega-deal akin to Springer’s $150 million over six years and Ryu’s $80 million over four left in them. That creates opportunities for them both at the deadline ahead and next winter, and the way they come together on the field will be a key marketing tool.
A wider societal emergence from the pandemic is also critical as the financial end of the business will relatively soon need to deliver returns to justify the accelerated payroll commitments. That isn’t likely to happen until 2022, but bears watching.
Despite that, this summer is more a beginning rather than end for the Blue Jays, although nothing should be taken for granted. It wasn’t that long ago that the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros appeared poised for extended periods of dominance, but their runs appear to be petering out sooner than anticipated. The Washington Nationals are fading after nearly a decade of being in the mix. The Philadelphia Phillies took a major step forward with external adds but flopped and are now a top-heavy team caught with a pricey and insufficient roster. Even with the current strong base, Shapiro and Atkins must still thread the needle on a number of levels to build a sustainable winner like the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The opportunity to do that is here for the Blue Jays, who have strong talent, a deep 40-man roster and farm system and financial flexibility. They’re sitting on a powder keg, one that handled carefully could lead to another golden era, or mismanaged could blow up in everyone’s faces.
