The easy thing to say about the resumption of the Toronto Blue Jays schedule is it’s all about Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., because it has always been the case since he and Bo Bichette re-set the clock in 2019.
It’s easy because in this market everything gets measured by the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have squandered the greatest collection of young talent in their history by mismanaging the NHL’s salary cap. You can look at Vladdy and Bo and see Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. I’m not sure the Blue Jays have an equivalent contract to that of William Nylander or John Tavares (I guess you could point to George Springer as Tavares) because there is no salary cap in Major League Baseball. An overpay doesn’t carry as much financial damage.
What a time to be a Toronto sports fan. TFC is Major League Soccer’s biggest joke and waste of resources. And even the Toronto Raptors’ most steadfast fans in the mainstream and cool, alternative media are concerned or at best confused by the tack of the team’s front office. The Argonauts? Well, you know …
What separates the Blue Jays from all other Toronto teams — and what should serve as a cautionary tale when making comparisons — is the fact it is more difficult to make Major League Baseball’s post-season than it is to make any other in North America. Sure, the NHL likes to call the Stanley Cup “the hardest trophy to win,” but for accuracy’s sake it might add that making the playoffs is, in fact, pretty damned easy — a 50/50 proposition. Same with the NBA.
Raptors president Masai Ujiri fired head coach Dwane Casey and replaced him with Nick Nurse because Casey couldn’t figure out how to beat LeBron James in the playoffs. Then he traded a franchise icon for Kawhi Leonard just in time to see James leave the conference and saw his team beat a Golden State Warriors club without Kevin Durant. It was a combination of smarts and, yes, serendipity.
Now, focusing on one team for an entire season can sometimes lead to a kind of myopia. I admit it. And so that means I’ve lit candles for the lost career of Alek Manoah, ridden the Matt Chapman Express, wondered what off-season trade or free-agent signing fell through to leave Brandon Belt as a candidate for the middle of the order on a team with a $224.8 million payroll, over-reacted to any wobble from Jordan Romano, and kept waiting for Erik Swanson’s arm to fall off and Trevor Richards’ change-up to, well, change. And don’t get me started about Alejandro Kirk.
But here’s the thing I decided to focus on at the lake over cigars and a few bottles of red: Looking back at so much that was written (by others, mostly) and said (by Kevin Barker and myself, mostly) reminded me how much importance was attached to the starting rotation. Nobody worried about Manoah in February or March. Instead, the concern was about Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and, to a degree, Chris Bassitt.
That was understandable. Of the 12 teams to make the 2022 playoffs, only the Tampa Bay Rays had fewer innings from their starters and, by extension, more innings from their bullpen. The Blue Jays were 19th in starters innings, 122 and 2/3 behind the MLB-leading Houston Astros and 59 innings behind the fourth-place Philadelphia Phillies — the two World Series finalists. So far in 2023, the Blue Jays have the fifth-most innings from their starters and are 17 and 1/3 in arrears of the leading Minnesota Twins. Only six teams have fewer bullpen innings, even with Manoah falling off the cliff.
As Atlanta Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos told us on Blair & Barker, the whole idea is to nurse your bullpen arms during the regular season and blow the living hell out of them in the post-season. OK, I’m paraphrasing. But you get the point: the 2022 Blue Jays were not in an optimum spot in terms of pitching heading into the post-season. The view from here is much better.
Of course, baseball is different this season. No shifts. Limits on ‘disengagements’ with runners on base. The pitch clock. Yet, given what the Blue Jays rotation has done and given the fact that about six weeks ago a lot of people in the organization became a lot more optimistic about Hyun Jin Ryu’s availability … well, maybe the window of opportunity in 2023 isn’t as much about Vladdy and Bo as it is about Kevin Gausman and Berrios, who along with Bassitt and Kikuchi were steadfast in Manoah’s absence.
And so we resume the 2023 regular-season with the Arizona Diamondbacks in town. Jordan Romano’s back issue sure as hell better not be lingering. Manoah better be good against something other than the Four-A lineup the Detroit Tigers ran out. Ryu … reliever Chad Green … hopefully they can be the reinforcements that the Blue Jays yet again haven’t been able to find in the minors. The next checkpoint? The Aug. 1 trade deadline, after which in the very least this lineup better have somebody other than Brandon belting in the middle of the order.
Ujiri had it all figured out. Build a titlist in this city and the world is your oyster. You can take the longest of victory laps and spend the next five years making it up on the fly, letting valuable pieces go for nothing, experimenting with 6-foot-9 dudes who can’t hit threes and generally casting about for more lightning in a bottle.
Winning makes people think you know what you’re doing. More to the point, it brings a currency in the market that can be used to purchase complete freedom.
The Leafs’ front office could use a title, because it would make it easier to make a hard call on Matthews, Marner or William Nylander. The Blue Jays aren’t in the same contract purgatory, but they, too, are creeping towards an inflection point with both Guerrero, Jr., and Bichette due free agency after the 2025 season, and little indication either will sign beyond that date. Bichette, at least, is signed up to that point through his arbitration years.
Onward, then, into the throes of the trade deadline, with a payroll that suggests no turning back, and might in fact hint at the kind of financial wiggle room that can cover up a lack of gilt-edged prospects as trade bait. The Blue Jays’ front office needs a big, big, swing. No hitter — none — should be off the table. Give Bo and Vladdy the help they need. Give the rotation the help they deserve. The window might not be open as long as we imagined in 2019. But it could very well be wider, right now, than realized — and make much easier some pending, difficult decisions.
Jeff Blair hosts Blair & Barker daily from 5-7 p.m. ET on Sportsnet 590/The Fan and Sportsnet.
