A six-month baseball season rarely plays out as expected, with injuries, breakouts and trades all contributing to the unpredictability of what unfolds on the field.
Case in point, a 2023 World Series in which the Texas Rangers defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks. That wasn’t exactly seen as a likely outcome last spring. But acknowledging the unpredictable nature of the sport is one thing, predicting the direction of that unpredictability is another test altogether.
Today, we lean into that challenge with five bold predictions for the coming baseball season. In years past, I’ve always gotten a prediction or two right in this space, and you could say that’s a good thing, but I see it as a sign it’s time to go even bolder. With these five predictions for 2024, that’s exactly what I’ve done:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto will win Rookie of the Year … and Cy Young
Predicting a Rookie of the Year for a player who has yet to play in the major leagues? A little bold, but not bold enough. Let’s up the stakes here. Not only will Yamamoto be named Rookie of the Year, but he’ll also win the NL Cy Young.
Granted, the 25-year-old has never pitched in the big leagues or in a five-man rotation, but the confidence behind this pick isn’t just blind faith. Leading up to Yamamoto’s $325 million deal with the Dodgers, teams used technology that didn’t exist 10 years ago to evaluate pitch data for Yamamoto’s stuff and understand how hitters would respond.
That objective information gave multiple teams the confidence to bid $300 million for Yamamoto, who posted a 1.16 ERA in NPB last year. Expect MLB hitters to struggle badly when he’s on the mound.
The Tigers will win the AL Central
It’s been almost a decade since the Tigers last appeared in the post-season but in 2024 that changes. The Guardians lack offence, the Twins lost a lot of pitching and the Royals aren’t quite ready to contend yet, all of which opens the door for a talented, young Tigers team.
With Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter there’s a promising young core in place on offence, Tarik Skubal flashed frontline stuff in the rotation and veterans Mark Canha, Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda all raise this team’s floor. With manager A.J. Hinch at the helm, the Tigers will emerge as a surprise team and hold off late pushes from Cleveland and Minnesota to reach the post-season.
Shohei Ohtani will hit 60 home runs
Is this prediction even that bold? Before getting hurt late last summer, Ohtani was hitting home runs at a rate of 53 per 162 games – while also pitching.
Now rehabbing from elbow surgery, he’s about to devote all of his energy to hitting, presumably for the final time in his career. And it won’t be lost on Ohtani that this is his best chance to post an utterly absurd home run total. Expect him to take full advantage in year one of his $700 million deal.
Mike Trout will play 130-plus games for the first time since 2019; he’ll also demand a trade
Now 32 years old, Trout no longer has the support of Ohtani at the plate or on the mound. The Angels are likely to make some significant additions before spring training, but replacing Ohtani won’t be easy and even with him the Angels were just a 73-win team.
So while Trout will bounce back physically, the prospect of more losing seasons will wear on him, prompting a trade request. With a contract that runs through 2030, a deal won’t be easy, but Trout’s a special player even after 13 seasons in the majors so some rival GMs will explore this possibility with the Phillies being a team to watch.
Jackson Holliday will join Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso as a Rookie of the Year winner, and he’ll outperform every one of those players in 2024
Holliday just turned 20, but his offensive tools are special, which is why he’s considered the game’s top prospect. At some point early in 2024, he’ll join Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, who both had phenomenal rookie years, in Baltimore and when he does, expect a high batting average, a high on-base percentage, speed and even a little power from the son of seven-time all-star Matt Holliday.
All told, Holliday will put together a 5-WAR season, outperforming some of the game’s biggest stars in year one.
What I got right — and wrong — in my 2023 bold predictions
In the spirit of accountability, here’s what I wrote this time last year.
I correctly predicted that the pitch clock would result in the most noticeable change to the game since drug testing and that Ohtani would sign MLB’s first $400-million free agent contract (MLB values the deal at $436 million, though it was announced as a $700 million deal with significant deferrals).
I wrongly predicted Ohtani would make his playoff debut for a team other than the Angels (that will eventually be correct, but it didn’t happen in 2023), that Juan Soto would win the NL MVP (Soto was awesome, but others were better) and that the team taking the biggest step back would be the Dodgers (they won 100 games; that’s a whiff).
