Over the course of a long season, it’s generally best to stay measured.
The sliders your cleanup hitter keeps chasing in May? Those home runs your setup man can’t stop allowing in June? All frustrating to watch, but none of it means your season’s doomed. The best coaches and executives understand this and give players many chances to show who they are over the course of 162 games.
Today, we leave that even-keeled approach behind. It’s bold prediction time at Sportsnet and that means bypassing the expected and looking more audaciously at what’s ahead.
Maybe that approach didn’t work out so well for me last year, but look: baseball writers deserve chances to bounce back, too. And I can tell already that this year’s going to be different. At first glance, these predictions may sound bold, but a year from now when they’ve all come true, remember that you heard them here first.
In 2023, look for these five developments to shape the baseball world …
The pitch clock will result in the most noticeable change to the game since drug testing
A turning point is coming. Starting this season, the pitch clock will change things for the better. Moment to moment, the game will have a bit more momentum. And there will be a meaningful reduction in time of game without losing any action. That’s great for fans and even for players, who may reduce wear and tear by spending less time on their feet. Within a month or two, the pitch clock will be so universally beloved, we’ll be wondering why MLB didn’t implement one earlier.
Shohei Ohtani will finally make his playoff debut … for a team other than the Angels
To state the obvious, Shohei Ohtani is baseball’s most talented and fascinating player. And yet after five years in the league he has yet to appear in a single playoff game. This, despite historic performances on the field and the equally impressive efforts of teammate Mike Trout.
In 2023, that changes. Well, it’ll change for Ohtani, at least — Trout may have to wait a little while longer. But when the Angels struggle this summer, rival teams will call. And at a certain point, a contending team will offer a historic return for Ohtani, a pending free agent. Painful though it will be, the Angels will make the move, setting Ohtani up to play elsewhere next October.
Ohtani will later sign baseball’s first $400-million free-agent contract
Let’s stick with Ohtani because he has a chance to dominate 2023 storylines more than any other person in the game. He hits free agency the season, and when he does, teams will face the unprecedented challenge of trying to value a player who pitches and hits at an elite level.
With consecutive 9.0 WAR seasons and the ability to impact the game in so many ways, there’s no telling what Ohtani could command on a free agent contract that will begin with his age-29 season. But there’s clearly a strong case to be made for a record AAV on a long-term deal with an opt-out or two. Does that look like $46 million times nine years? Or $44 million times 10? Even more? One way or another, Ohtani will sign the first $400-million free-agent deal in MLB history.
Juan Soto will win the 2023 National League MVP
Last year, I was all-in on Juan Soto in this space and it backfired. That’s not going to stop me from doubling down, though.
Soto’s poised for a bounce-back and the Padres will again be among the NL’s best teams. Plus, expect a narrative boost for Soto when he recovers from a ‘down’ 2022 year (his OPS+ was still 149, better than the career marks of Mike Schmidt, Albert Pujols and Edgar Martinez). It will add up to an MVP finish for the 24-year-old — a first in his big-league career.
The team that takes the biggest step back will be … the Los Angeles Dodgers
Alright, I’m not saying the Dodgers will be bad. They’re obviously still one of the game’s best teams. But what I am saying is this: when we look back at which teams saw the biggest drop-off in wins from 2022 to 2023, the Dodgers will sit atop that list.
They won 111 games last year — tough to repeat under any circumstances. Then consider that Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Joey Gallo, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney and Chris Martin all left as free agents. That’s a lot of departing talent, and while newcomers J.D. Martinez and Noah Syndergaard will help, we’re still looking at a net loss.
Playoff team? Of course. But expect a significant drop-off in the regular season win column, too.
What I got right — and wrong — in my 2022 bold predictions
In the spirit of accountability, here’s what I wrote this time last year.
I correctly predicted that Logan Webb would emerge as a Cy Young candidate. While Webb wasn’t a finalist, he did get some down-ballot votes for the first time in his career, finishing 11th in voting after posting a 2.90 ERA in 32 starts. I’ll take it.
I wrongly predicted … well, there’s no easy way to say this. I wrongly predicted a lot. Wander Franco did not finish in the top five of American League MVP voting; Bobby Witt Jr. was good, but he didn’t overtake Sal Perez as the Royals’ WAR leader; the AL batting title did not go to a Blue Jay; Juan Soto’s OBP was 99 points below the .500 mark I predicted. Ouch. The cost of going bold, folks.
