Buckle up, football fans. For the second straight year, and the fourth time in their careers, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are set to go head-to-head in the post-season.
Since the start of Mahomes’ tenure in Kansas City in 2018, 11 different AFC clubs have tried to stop his Chiefs in the post-season. Only two have succeeded: Tom Brady’s Patriots bested the Chiefs in Mahomes’ first playoff run as a starter (and first of a long streak of AFC Championship appearances); and Joe Burrow’s Bengals defeated the reigning champs in the 2021 AFC title game during Cincinnati’s Cinderella run to the Super Bowl. No team has faced Mahomes & Co. in January more than Allen’s Buffalo Bills, who’ve fallen short all three times so far.
We don’t have to look that far back to see the last time these squads went head-to-head. They met in Week 11 of the 2024 regular season, a 30-21 victory that halted Kansas City’s undefeated streak to open the year.
Mahomes and Allen have gone head-to-head eight times in their careers, and while each quarterback has claimed four victories against his rival, those shared 4-4 overall records don’t tell the whole story. As we look ahead to the fourth playoff meeting of these formidable AFC foes in Sunday’s conference final in Kansas City, here’s a by-the-numbers look back at the rivalry that’s blossomed before our eyes.
3-0: Mahomes’ playoff record against Allen and the Bills. Sunday’s matchup will be their fourth time going head-to-head in the post-season and their second time meeting in the AFC Championship since they first met in the 2020 playoffs. Can Mahomes keep his perfect playoff record intact?
3: The point differential in the Chiefs’ 27-24 Divisional Round win in Buffalo last January. Of the clubs’ three playoff meetings, three points marked the smallest margin of victory yet. A missed field goal, kicked wide right by Buffalo’s Tyler Bass late in the fourth quarter, proved to be the difference in this one — a painful reminder of past post-season failures in Buffalo.
4-1: Allen’s career regular-season record against Mahomes’ Chiefs. That’s Allen’s best record in the regular-season versus any single non-divisional opponent. Since losing their first meeting back in October 2020, Allen has claimed four straight regular-season victories against the Chiefs — three of which took place at Arrowhead Stadium. Their most recent meeting, a 30-21 victory in mid-November in Buffalo, ended the Chiefs’ bid for a perfect season in 2024.
7-1: Allen’s touchdown-to-interception ratio against the Chiefs in the playoffs. He’s nearly perfect — he has to be, considering his opponent…
8-0: Mahomes’ touchdown-to-interception ratio against the Bills in the playoffs. He is perfect, stepping up in a big way on the biggest stage. (More on that, later.)
10: Number of touchdowns thrown by each QB through five head-to-head matchups in the regular season. The difference comes when you look at the interception numbers — Mahomes has thrown seven picks through five regular-season matchups against Buffalo, while Allen has just three.
10: Number of lead changes within the Bills’ and Chiefs three playoff encounters. While their first playoff meeting saw just one lead change as the Chiefs ran away with it, their last two head-to-heads were back-and-forth thrillers. Last January’s matchup saw five lead changes, but the one we remember most is the 2021 Divisional Round thriller, which featured three lead changes amid a 25-point scoring spree in the last two minutes alone before Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker tied it up to send it to overtime. Speaking of which…
13: The number of seconds it took Mahomes & Co. to turn the 2021 Divisional Round bout against Buffalo on its head. That game — widely considered one of the greatest football games ever played — not only changed the course of this rivalry, it altered the post-season rulebook. After forcing overtime with a 13-second field goal drive at the end of regulation, the Chiefs won the coin toss and marched down the field to score a touchdown in the opening drive of extra time, leaving Allen without a chance to hit the field at all in extra time. The NFL later passed a new rule that states both offences will have a possession in overtime in the playoffs.
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85.9 vs. 126.6: Mahomes’ career passer rating against Buffalo in the regular season versus the playoffs. That’s a pretty massive leap, and a testament to Mahomes’ elevated post-season play. Comparing Mahomes’ and Allen’s regular season and playoff outputs combined when facing one another yields numbers that are remarkably similar in terms of average yards, touchdowns, and average passer rating.(Mahomes has posted a passer rating of 100.1 through eight games against the Bills, just ahead of Allen’s similar 96.3.) But while Mahomes’ stats take a leap in the post-season, Allen’s show consistent output no matter the situation.
94.5 vs. 98.9: Allen’s career passer rating against Kansas City in the regular season versus the playoffs. He’s proven to put up much more consistent numbers, regardless of the stakes.
191: The total number of points scored between these two offences combined through three playoff games. The Chiefs have outscored Buffalo by a combined 107-84, but that number is skewed by their first post-season meeting — a 38-24 Chiefs victory. Kansas City’s margins have gotten a lot smaller since. Can they keep their post-season win streak alive with another close battle on Sunday, or will Buffalo finally topple the two-time defending champs?
