LOS ANGELES — There is every chance that this will not be the Oilers’ year to finally win that Stanley Cup in the McDavid-Draisaitl era.
Not because they’ve lost Game 1. That’s almost irrelevant for a team that loses Game 1 far more often than winning it.
But with injuries, roster mismanagement, and too many players having ‘24-25 seasons that are inferior to what they accomplished the prior season, we’re not sure how far this train is going chug down the tracks in a Western Conference that holds the National Hockey League’s strongest teams.
A round? Maybe two?
What we can guarantee you, however, is that this spring’s performance will shape next fall’s roster in two critical places, with two players from the Oilers’ core:
Stuart Skinner and Evan Bouchard.
It’s decision time on both players for first-year Oilers general manager Stan Bowman, and the playoff viewing did not start out smoothly in a 6-5 Game 1 loss to the Kings.
“We just made some big mistakes that led to goals against,” recounted head coach Kris Knoblauch, the morning after that wild Game 1 loss. “They scored the two power-play goals, and then probably three were just too easy for them to score.”
Not once did Knoblauch use Evan Bouchard’s name, but he didn’t have to. The two Los Angeles goals that were scored by Adrian Kempe and Phillip Danault — each left in the Oilers crease or low slot with oodles of time to make their move — were a direct result of a Bouchard turnover.
The game-winning goal — an elongated odd-man rush where-net front presence by Warren Foegele, Bouchard’s man, was the sole reason Skinner could not see Danault’s fluttering shot — was also on Bouchard.
As for Skinner, asked if he will start Game 2, Knoblauch said this:
“Haven’t decided. We’ll confirm that tomorrow.”
The Oilers’ No. 1 goalie saw his numbers drop this season, in save percentage (.905 to .896), goals-against average (2.62 to 2.81) and wins (36 to 26).
With a new general manager looking down at Skinner’s game, Skinner’s playoff performance will dictate whether an upgrade is sought this summer: either a similar level of 1A netminder to share the nets, someone who takes the No. 1 job outright ahead of Skinner, or possibly even including Skinner in a deal that retains Calvin Pickard as the No. 2.
The window to win is right now in Edmonton, obviously, and Bowman will proceed as such. Either he sees Skinner as a goalie who can win a Stanley Cup — and remember, Bowman won Cups in Chicago with Antti Niemi and Corey Crawford — or he doesn’t.
We can not count the number of games where Skinner allowed four or more, yet we could not really blame him definitively on any one goal. That speaks to the team play in front of him, and was the case again Monday as the playoffs opened in L.A.
“It’s not too often I’m happy with my goalie after six goals against. But probably only the second one, maybe that was a bad goal,” Knoblauch said of the shot that Quinton Byfield banked off of Skinner’s hip and in from behind the goal line.
Connor McDavid scores that goal four times a year, and no one ever blames the goalie, we would point out. But Skinner and blame has become synonymous in Edmonton, where fans impatiently wait for the game-changing goalie the Oilers have not had since Curtis Joseph a generation ago.
“You look at the chances (the Kings) had all by themselves in front of the net,” said Knoblauch. “The two power-play goals he has absolutely zero chance on. Two goals, (Kings players) absolutely left all alone in front of the net. The game-winning goal he does not see…
“I had no issues with Stuart Skinner’s game,” Knoblauch decided.
Yet, the Oilers allowed six. And as Skinner said on Tuesday, “If you let in six in this league, you’re probably not going to be winning the game. Even if you let in four, you don’t have a good chance of winning.”
Which brings us to Bouchard, who is an unrestricted free agent this summer and could command as much as $11 million per season in a new deal.
Bouchard could undoubtedly play for the Oilers long-term as a core player. But can you win with a $10-million defenceman who defends at Bouchard’s level?
Can you win with the second coming of Erik Karlsson, when nobody else has?
In the past three post-seasons prior to this one, Bouchard’s 58 points are an NHL best, a full 10 points ahead of Cale Makar. In the past three regular seasons, Bouchard’s 189 points ranks eighth, his 149 assists ranks seventh, and his 74 power-play points ties him for fourth with Roman Josi.
That puts Bouchard’s ask this summer very likely into double digits. However, Game 1 against the Kings was a classic example of Bouchard’s game: dangerous at both ends of the ice with three assists and three goals directly caused by his derelict defensive play.
Bouchard is a conundrum: His is a savant offensively, with consistently the hardest slapshot in hockey. But he has cost his team multiple games this season with lax defensive play, and that bled into the playoffs Monday.
He helps them win one night, helps them lose the next. You can live with that at his current price of $3.9 million, but what about when he becomes Edmonton’s highest-paid defenceman — with Darnell Nurse already at $9.25 million?
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Monday was peak Bouchard, with two blatant giveaways turning a 2-0 game into a 4-0 deficit. Then the coach says, “Well, we need a comeback, so we’ve got to play our best offensive defenceman 27 minutes.”
In the end, Bouchard had three secondary assists on outstanding plays by McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. But when left to his own devices in the D-zone, he crippled his team, including on the game-winning goal with 42 seconds to play.
Bouchard has become a Karlsson, or a bigger, Canadian version of Sandis Ozolinsh. But can you win when your top-pairing defenceman is actually an “offenceman,” as they once called Ozolinsh?
How many Cups has Karlsson won, a sublime offensive talent who has always shown a disdain towards playing in his own end?
The story in Edmonton is, has been, and always will be focused on how many Cups McDavid and Draisaitl have won.
And by extension, which complementary players can help them turn that zero into a one.
