BROSSARD, Que. — We could excuse Montreal Canadiens fans for not knowing what to make of their team through the first 19 games of the season.
Through 13 of them, they’d have had no reason to believe the Canadiens were anything other than a lottery team, with a 4-7-2 record not even serving as an accurate reflection of how bad they actually played.
Over that stretch, the Canadiens were abysmal at five-on-five, ranking worst or second-worst in the league in nearly every relevant statistical category — from shot attempts percentage to expected goals percentage to high-danger chances percentage — and looking every bit like a team that was regressing in every way.
But the Canadiens probably should’ve been better than 3-3-0 over their last six games, ranking in the top-10 in all of those categories while running the 10th-best power play in the league.
Smaller sample, no doubt.
But two more wins over this last stretch of strong hockey would’ve had the Canadiens sitting one point back of the Bruins for the second wild-card position in the Eastern Conference with two games in hand.
Anyways, the Canadiens didn’t get them, and they have a long way to go to convince their fans they’ll be within a sniff of a playoff spot once the 63 remaining games are played—even if they’re coming off their strongest performance of the season and trending towards taking themselves out of contention for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 Draft.
Expectations are rightfully tempered. Jets will remain cooled until the Canadiens can show they can sustain this most recent level of play and consistently generate results with it.
Doing so, at least until Patrik Laine joins them, would inspire some optimism. And improving with Laine in the fold would bring the Canadiens to the level fans expected to see them at this season.
They certainly didn’t hit it through most of the first quarter.
We’ll see if the Canadiens can in the second.
MOST ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT(S)?
Despite how things went through the first quarter of the season, the Canadiens have not one, but two (!) players in the running for end-of-season awards.
We doubt anyone’s surprised by Lane Hutson’s contention for the Calder Trophy. His skill, and his determination to make a difference on every shift have seen him produce 11 assists, ranking him third in rookie scoring, which is about where you’d expect him to be, knowing he’s averaging 23 minutes per game.
We’re not sure how many people would’ve expected Cole Caufield to be in the running for the Rocket Richard Trophy — especially after Caufield scored on just 8.9 per cent of his shots and produced only 28 goals last season — but he’s had a share of, or been in sole possession of the league lead through much of the season and he currently has fewer goals than only six other players.
Whether or not Caufield wins the Rocket in the end, he’s on pace to become the first 50-goal scorer the Canadiens have had since Stephane Richer.
It’s been 36 years since Richer scored 50 for the Canadiens, so it’s hard to see anything else as a more encouraging development for the team than what Caufield is currently doing.
His all-around game has also risen several notches over this most recent stretch of Canadiens hockey.
Hutson’s has been at a high level since the start, making you wonder how far both players can take the Canadiens up the standings if they continue this way.
MOST CONCERNING DEVELOPMENT(S)
Take your pick.
Is it…
- The Canadiens’ leaky defence through the first 13 games?
- The step back Cayden Primeau has taken behind Samuel Montembeault?
- Montembeault’s early-season inconsistency?
- Kirby Dach’s lack of progress over the last nine games after getting a 10-game pass for having not played the majority of last season?
- Alex Newhook’s anemic offence?
- All of the above?
There’s been a lot to be concerned about, but at least there’s been some major course correction on the defensive front.
Still, even the smallest step back in this department would prove disastrous for the Canadiens.
Especially if Montembeault doesn’t play at the level he’s displayed in his last four games, over which he’s posted three wins, a shutout and stopped 96.6 per cent of the shots he’s faced.
If Primeau can’t find the middle ground between making great saves and allowing terrible goals within the same game, he’ll struggle to earn wins no matter how well the defence plays in front of him.
As for the offence, Caufield has been steadily producing, captain Nick Suzuki has seven goals and 19 points, and Juraj Slafkovsky appears to be trending in the right direction.
But Dach and Newhook need to pick it up right now so they can help carry Laine, who can’t be expected to be firing on all cylinders when he steps into what would be his first regular-season game in close to a calendar year.
TOP SIX FORWARDS GRADE: D
The average is being brought up by Caufield’s goal-scoring and Suzuki’s point-per-game pace.
It would be closer to failing if not for those things.
Slafkovsky is stuck on one goal through 16 games he’s appeared in, which puts him well off the pace you’d expect him to be on after he posted 20 goals last season.
At least the 20-year-old is on pace to better the 50 points he put up then, but not by so much that we’d consider him to be progressing the way he or the Canadiens would like him to be.
That needs to change.
As does the performance Dach and Newhook have put up to this stage.
They’ve combined for 12 points playing exclusively top-six minutes, while Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson have combined for 12 goals from the third line.
BOTTOM-SIX FORWARDS GRADE: B-
Gallagher and Anderson have done their jobs down here. As has Jake Evans, who has played most of his games between them despite also being used most recently to help fill the void left by Laine in the top six.
Christian Dvorak’s play was down to start but up over the last eight games, which is what you’d say of the team’s fourth line.
We’d take it a step further to say Emil Heineman, Lucas Condotta and Joel Armia have been very strong since being assembled to start that stretch, and the numbers support that.
DEFENCE GRADE: D
Hutson is on a bit of an island when it comes to consistency from the start of the season, which is great for him but not something you want to be saying — considering he’s only 20 years old and 21 games into his NHL career.
Mike Matheson, who’s 566 games into his, has outproduced the rookie but has only played at the (high) level expected of him over the last two weeks.
Kaiden Guhle started up there — despite missing all of training camp following an emergency appendectomy — and has gradually brought his game back up to the expected level after suffering a head injury that kept him out of action from Oct. 18 to Oct. 31.
It was mostly down for David Savard, Arber Xhekaj, Jayden Struble and Justin Barron through the first month of the season, but the first three of those four have pushed their games up several notches over the last six contests the Canadiens have played.
The entire group is getting more help from the forwards now, and that’s a plus. It should lead to the grade being in a different place come mid-season if that remains the case.
GOALTENDING GRADE: C-
There were a few off-performances mixed in for Montembeault, but we can only think of one loss you’d hang mostly on him—the 8-2 laugher against the Seattle Kraken, over which he allowed five goals on 10 shots before being pulled.
That Montembeault has a .906 save percentage and 2.85 goals-against average is a testament to him being good for the most part and superb in a couple of his 15 appearances.
Primeau’s numbers (.845 save percentage and 4.67 goals-against average) aren’t entirely telling of his performance to date — the Canadiens weren’t exactly exceptional in front of him and at least some of the damage was done coming in halfway through games they were getting shelled in — but they do reveal he needs to be much better.
Primeau posted a .910 save percentage and 2.99 goals-against average through 23 appearances last season, so we know he can be much better.
QUARTER-MARK AWARDS
MVP: Caufield
Most improved player: Gallagher
Best defensive player: Hutson
