When MLB teams are said to be built around pitching and defence — a label that undoubtedly applies to the Toronto Blue Jays — the second part of that description tends to overshadow the first.
Pitching and defence co-exist in a way that makes them difficult to separate at times, but when teams hang their hat on run suppression the pitchers soak up much of the glory. That’s not completely unfair, either.
Strikeouts, walks and home runs are the domain of the men on the mound — and some have a talent for meaningfully impacting contact quality on balls in play. There are rare teams whose defence is so strong it becomes the club’s best run-suppression weapon despite its inability to affect every at-bats.
While the Blue Jays experienced a costly, high-profile defensive blunder on Tuesday, they appear to be one of those teams. Toronto’s fWAR (1.1), which is based on fielding-independent pitching numbers, ranks 26th in the majors, but the team allowed a middle-of-the-pack 4.32 runs per game — good for 14th in MLB.
Some of that has come from fairly mistake-free fielding as only 10 clubs have committed fewer errors than the Blue Jays, but the driving force of their success has been consistently turned likely hits into outs.
Last season, the Blue Jays were an excellent defensive team that ranked seventh in Statcast Fielding Run Value(+19) — a metric that combines Outs Above Average with catcher fielding statistics to summarize a team’s whole defensive output.
On a per-game basis that group turned 1.65 balls with an expected batting average above .500 into outs. This year, that number sits at 2.12.
That’s 53 total balls that easily could’ve been hits that found mitts, often via highlight-reel plays:
Expected Batting Average: .917
Expected Batting Average: .832
Expected Batting Average: .831
It’s not a surprise to see Daulton Varsho feature prominently among the best plays, considering he leads the majors in OAA (+7) after ranking 20th last year.
Much of what we’ve seen thus far makes sense, given the track record of Toronto’s position players. Kevin Kiermaier’s strong start is far from shocking considering he’s won four Gold Gloves, including one last year. Alejandro Kirk ranks fourth on the framing leaderboards, which makes sense considering he was a 95th percentile framer in 2022 and ranked in the 79th percentile last year.
While much of Toronto’s defensive success has come from returning players building on their already-stellar reputations, others have also chipped in. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ernie Clement have been nearly flawless at third base, combining for +2 OAA with both players also performing well at other positions.
Davis Schneider is still inexperienced in left field, but he’s handled himself OK, and Cavan Biggio has bounced around the diamond less than usual, primarily playing his best position: second base. With Kiermaier on the IL, left field may not be a position of strength, but it shouldn’t be a disaster, either.
The only two regulars with negative defensive numbers are Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Bichette took a step forward last season but remains inconsistent defensively. Guerrero is at a low point coming off Tuesday’s error, but he looks more athletic this season — and his sprint speed has gone from 27th percentile last season to 54th this year. If he’s moving better overall, he could be in for a stronger defensive season.
With a combination of some of MLB’s best defensive performers and relatively few liabilities, the Blue Jays defence has been outstanding and the club’s Statcast Fielding Run Value, or FRV, of +12 leads the majors. Since the beginning of the Statcast era in 2015, no team has topped a FRV of +59 in a season and the Blue Jays are on pace for +77.8.
It’s unfair to expect them to reach that number as defensive numbers are volatile and any kind of unprecedented pace is likely to regress to the mean a bit. Even if that happens, there’s plenty of room for this group to slow down and remain extraordinary.
Considering the Blue Jays sit fourth in the American League East, rank 22nd in scoring, and have a negative run differential, it’s easy to see them as an unremarkable outfit. While there’s plenty of season to play, that description may end up being accurate — but their defence gives the Blue Jays one indisputably elite quality.
