The Arizona Diamondbacks’ presence in the 2023 World Series is bound to invite plenty of discourse about how little it can potentially take to reach the sport’s greatest stage.
After all, we’re talking about a team that went 84-78 during the regular season with a minus-15 run differential. It would be tough to argue that Arizona was the type of squad that got hot at the right time and hit the playoffs in stride, either.
The Diamondbacks lost their last four games, didn’t dominate in September (15-12) and were a far better team in the first half of the season than the second when the club had a winning percentage of .451.
It’s understandable that there are plenty of baseball fans sitting at home bemoaning how their teams were unable to make a run while this Arizona squad will be playing for a title. That’s especially true for the Toronto Blue Jays faithful, considering the club’s 0-6 record in playoff games since 2016 and the fact it provided the Diamondbacks with 22 per cent of their starting lineup in the Daulton Varsho deal.
Arizona’s surprising run has deservedly engendered skepticism about MLB’s playoff format — and couldn’t be a better advertisement for Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto’s infamous words about consistently aiming to win 54 per cent of the time.
It would be fair to say that the biggest takeaway from the Diamondbacks journey is one about the unpredictability of the MLB playoffs, but that’s a lesson that’s already been learned many times over.
Although the Diamondbacks are not a model franchise, that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to glean from their success in October. If there is one thing to learn from this Arizona team, it’s that MLB teams probably need not fret about the playoff experience — or lack thereof — on the roster when they enter the playoffs.
Fans and media generally don’t get as sucked into narratives about teams that are “battle-tested” for the playoffs with baseball as they do with hockey and basketball, but it’s still a factor that gets considered, and it probably shouldn’t be.
These Diamondbacks are the perfect example of youthful enthusiasm and talent winning out over guys who’ve done it before under the bright lights.
On the position player side, Arizona has eight players who entered the 2023 season with 1.149 years of MLB service time or less — including franchise centrepiece Corbin Carroll and starters at the team’s three most important defensive positions: Gabriel Moreno at catcher, Geraldo Perdomo at shortstop and Alek Thomas in centre field.
While Ketel Marte has been the team’s best offensive player in these playoffs, Carroll, Moreno, Perdomo and Thomas rank second to fifth on the club in wRC+. That quartet has produced 11 home runs in 12 games and combined for a .269/352/.494 line — good for a 126 wRC+.
Meanwhile the primary veteran-presence guys in the lineup, Evan Longoria and Tommy Pham, have done nothing. Longoria is slashing .134/.214/.152 and Pham only looks good by comparison, at .214/.233/.357.
On the pitching side, none of Arizona’s playoff starters had pitched in the playoffs before 2023 — a stark contrast with the Philadelphia Phillies squad they just beat that featured a 1-2 punch in Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola that has combined for 112 playoff innings over the past two postseasons.
In the bullpen, just three of the 10 available arms — Paul Sewald, Miguel Castro and Ryan Thompson — had seen the postseason before this year — and that group combined for just 14.2 innings, the vast majority (9.1) belonging to Thompson. That group of relievers has combined for a 2.94 ERA.
None of that should be entirely surprising for a team coming off five seasons without a playoff appearance, but it should reinforce the notion that teams don’t need to get a taste of post-season action before they can win it all.
When clubs encounter playoff hardship, it can be comforting for fans to take solace in the idea that building battle scars will help them learn what it takes to earn a title. It’s a helpful mindset for coping with a loss, but it’s not necessarily backed by evidence.
The Diamondbacks’ young players didn’t need experience — in the form of tough losses or glorious wins — to sweep the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers. They didn’t need it to beat a Phillies club that has undoubtedly become accustomed to the pressure of October baseball in the last couple of years.
Whether you want to attribute it to luck, skill, small-sample-size nonsense or some kind of destiny, Arizona has gotten the job done while learning on the fly.
Other MLB teams aren’t likely to copy the Diamondbacks’ model wholesale, but young up-and-coming squads may feel empowered to trust in their talent and make some win-now moves even if there’s absolutely no playoff proof-of-concept to lean on.
