I’ve already written a couple pieces on what I expect from the season ahead, but given that it is that time of year – and I do a Leafs daily radio show – it only makes sense I write one more and get my pre-season opinions on the Leafs on the record.
They are as follows:
They are going to be very, very good
My bud JD Bunkis has (wisely) said for years that the Leafs have had enough good players, but the puzzle pieces haven’t fit. Hasn’t that been the case with the fourth line, when Jason Spezza was a fixture? He was an excellent contributor, an excellent Leaf. But with him there, what is your fourth line supposed to be?
Their current fourth line is David Kampf, one of the league’s best defensive centres, Zach Aston-Reese, a physical forward who’s earned Selke votes in the past, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel, a guy who just won the Cup in a very good bottom-six. Their role is clear – shut down the opposition, hit them, forecheck, play with energy and move the play from their own end to the other one.
The rest up front is proven. They’ve got three pretty good defence pairs when healthy, and they got such bad goaltending last year and still hit 115 points, so they aren’t asking Matt Murray or Ilya Samsonov to be the second-coming of Georges Vezina.
This team is (somewhere in the ballpark of) a 110-point team and there’s room to be better than that.
Whether injury or performance related, the Leafs acquire another NHL goalie who gets games in the playoffs
There are a number of scenarios that can unfold with Murray and Samsonov. But the outcome the Leafs want – Murray both good and healthy, Samsonov good and healthy – probably isn’t the most likely one. Murray played in 47 games combined over the past two seasons. Whether he gets injured or struggles, or Samsonov is injured or struggles, it seems like a more likely outcome that by February the Leafs are looking at their team and saying “we need more assurance in net, what do we have to do to get someone else in here?” They got the best guys they could from who was available. That doesn’t mean someone else won’t become available in-season.
If they’re asking Erik Källgren to play a dozen games this year, the plan has gone sideways.
Big core years
Last season Auston Matthews scored 60, Mitch Marner had around 100 points, and William Nylander and John Tavares were around a point per game. The three younger guys there should hit those totals again or better, which for fans, should be appreciated. It’s not often you get to watch prime-aged, legit-superstars every night. The years some franchises spend struggle trying to get those guys … phew. Don’t forget how unfun it can be.
With Muzzin’s health a constant question mark, D-depth becomes a focus
As both a player and a guy, Jake Muzzin is someone the Leafs are proud to have. But he had a pre-season quote about “having a lot of miles” on him, after he wasn’t feeling great, and that’s his reality. He also makes $5.625 million against the cap, and is a guy the team leans on to provide defensive stability. If they don’t have him available, the questions start (including how to best use their salary cap dollars). They’ll be looking to their D depth, which is actually … better than the past few years. Timothy Liljegren isn’t far away, Jordie Benn should be an option, Victor Mete is waiting in the AHL… there’s a good chance the Leafs use a lot of defencemen this season, but the D corps should remain pretty solid no matter who’s in.
Staying healthy becomes a topic of conversation
Last season their best four forwards were by and large healthy, dressing in 305 of a possible 328 games. Past that, Rielly played 82, Brodie played 82, Kerfoot played 82, Bunting played 79, Kampf played 82, Engvall played 78…they were a pretty healthy bunch. That leads to continuity and 115-point seasons, but it’s never guaranteed.
I’m curious to see if that’s something the team deserves credit for (they do lean heavily on a sports science department that prioritizes health and nutrition and sleep), or if they were just lucky last season. To win the division, they’ll need health again, and if they don’t have it, how much do we end up talking about it?
Nick Robertson will matter in some capacity
I say “in some capacity” because I think it could be as a player, but also as a trade piece. The Leafs reality is – as it has been for years – this year matters more than planning for the future, and while Robertson might have numerous 30-plus goal seasons in him down the road, you need players now. If they get into a pinch where they need to add a player immediately – like at the trade deadline – would he be an option to go the other way?
Or, there’s the other possibility that his pre-season showed signs of something the Leafs really need, and have in him now: a cheap contributor. He looked great. At his salary, if he shows he can score goals, wouldn’t the team love that?
Kyle Dubas – who is in the last year of his contract – gets a short extension around Christmas
Because of all the optimism above, I think the Leafs will be at or around the top of their division at Christmas. If they are, they’ll have huge decisions to make, ones that are related to the previous topic: what do they give up in the future to get better this season, to go “all in?” And can you have a GM in a position to make major decisions like that who you don’t trust enough to give an extension to? If you don’t trust him to make those calls, should he be in power? I think to avoid some of the awkwardness, if the Leafs are good, Dubas gets extended in-season.
And finally,
There will be playoff success
That doesn’t say “they’ll win the Stanley Cup,” but…I can’t believe I’m gonna write this…the Leafs are gonna win a playoff round, and give the city a little run.
Listen, I have to talk about this team every day this year, I can’t go into it with pure pessimism. I’m sure the comment section will respond reasonably.
Leafs/Habs, 7pm, on Sportsnet Wednesday night. Let the games begin.
