So the first quarter, for most teams, has come and gone. We have an idea of who may surprise this season (Vancouver, Detroit, Arizona) and who may disappoint (Edmonton, New Jersey), but just as easily the second quarter could be all about course correcting, leaving us to readjust our assumptions yet again.
The first 20 games set the tone for the season. The next 20 games will solidify the shape of the 2023-24 season.
So from the trade market to pending UFA performances, neck-guard usage and more, we take a look at a few storylines to keep an eye on as the NHL embarks on the next section of its season.
Will there be an active goalie trade market?
The position that most brings a fan base to panic is also the one most difficult to fix during a season. It’s not often that impactful goalies are dealt between training camps in September and the off-season summer months, and in the few times it has happened the returns haven’t been tremendous.
Keep that in mind when talking goalie trade ideas for the playoff-hopeful teams that so obviously need to address the position, such as Edmonton (.870 team save percentage, 32nd in the NHL) or New Jersey (.874, 30th).
We still have to wonder if that could change this season. The Oilers are certainly desperate to get back into the playoffs and then make a run, and though they remain hopeful Jack Campbell will return to the NHL roster they’d be wise to keep working the phones. New Jersey is perhaps less urgent of a situation, but this was still a 112-point team last season and, as their 5-on-5 offence has sputtered, they need more saves to make up the standings gap.
Who are the candidates to trade? Juuse Saros was a pie-in-the-sky thought when Edmonton was at its lowest, but the Predators are in a playoff spot now and GM Barry Trotz said the plan was to extend him before his contract expires in 2025. Carter Hart is another top-tier fantasy, but the Flyers are in the thick of the Metro. Goalies of that ilk, who would require a monster return, just don’t move.
Karel Vejmelka is young and cheap enough, but the Coyotes are competitive again. As the Anaheim Ducks slide back into reality, John Gibson’s name will surely come up again, but that’s been the case for years. Maybe Columbus begins exploring on Elvis Merzlikins if they choose to restructure things, but his termed $5.4-million contract won’t easily fit under anyone’s cap.
We’re more likely looking at the likes of Montreal’s Jake Allen (3.59 GAA, .903 SV%) or San Jose’s Kaapo Kahkonen (4.12, .889) — or, perhaps, their batterymates — as the more movable pieces, and you can only wonder if they would be an upgrade at all.
In the second quarter we’ll see if things get more desperate in Edmonton, New Jersey, or turn sour anywhere else, and if any other goalie names start to surface on the market. By the time we get to the third quarter, we’ll have a better idea if this year will be any different for the goalie market.
On that note, how will the buyers and sellers market take shape?
This season’s trade deadline lands on March 8 so the next couple months will start to separate the buyers from the sellers and shape the market.
So far, it’s been too early to clearly establish these lines.
The Calgary Flames have had one defenceman, Nikita Zadorov, ask out and four pending UFAs who would be attractive assets on the trade market. But right now they are on a nice hot streak and just one point out of the wild card. We would have expected Philadelphia to keep leaning into its rebuild, but the Flyers are two points off the wild-card pace and only one point off third place in the Metro.
On the flip side, we had expected Minnesota to be in the playoff mix again, but after a very slow start a bad second quarter could push them into seller territory. Likewise the Ottawa Senators were supposed to be better than last in the East and now Elliotte Friedman is stamping down Thomas Chabot trade rumours in 32 Thoughts.
We know who some buyers will surely be. Vancouver and Toronto need defencemen, Boston needs a forward or two, and all the expected top contenders — Rangers, Avalanche, Golden Knights, Panthers, Stars — will surely be seeking upgrades or depth options.
And, heck, even Edmonton and New Jersey, currently outside of the playoff picture, will be looking to right the ship instead of offload.
But who’s selling to them? That will become clearer after the next section of 20 games.
What does Patrick Kane still have in the tank?
The newest member of the Detroit Red Wings is a future Hall of Famer, but Patrick Kane is also 35 and coming off a hip replacement surgery that leaves a big question as to how effective he’ll be. When we last saw him, Kane had 18 points in 26 games (regular season and playoffs) after being traded to the Rangers, but wasn’t himself.
Speaking to the media Wednesday, Kane said he feels “a lot better compared to last year” especially when it comes to shifting his weight side to side and crossing over his skates.
It’ll be another week or so until Kane plays for the Red Wings, with next week’s road game in Buffalo his first potential game. Reunited with former linemate Alex DeBrincat, it might take Kane a few games to get up to speed again, but over the second quarter of games we’ll get a sense how much of his offensive ceiling he can still reach, and how much of a liability he could be on the defensive side, a lingering concern.
Will a big stretch for Ottawa bring clarity?
So far the Oilers (Jay Woodcroft to Kris Knoblauch) and Wild (Dean Evason to John Hynes) have made coaching changes after really rough starts and everyone in Ottawa is wondering if DJ Smith is next.
The Senators aren’t where they wanted to be 17 games into the season, 8-9-0 and 15th in the Eastern Conference by points percentage. They get a very busy December next, in which they’ll play 15 games, and after that we should know if they’ll be in the playoff picture or well outside of it and having to reassess their reality.
The Senators already need a new GM, though Steve Staios is running the show as president of hockey operations. It’s been reported that players communicated a desire for things to settle around the team, so management may not want to move on from Smith, especially for an interim fill-in. And, of course, they’ll have their pick of candidates in the off-season.
Can coaching changes spark a resurgence in Edmonton or Minnesota?
As mentioned these two teams have already made a coaching change to try and spark something and the very early returns are positive anyway…
Both teams have gotten bottom-of-the-barrel goaltending so far, and an improvement there would already immediately bring rosier outlooks. The Oilers have had a few games to settle under Knoblauch and seem to be gaining momentum, now five points out of a playoff spot.
Both teams also had expectations to extend their four-season playoff streaks, Edmonton as a top-notch Cup contender and Minnesota as more of a scrappy mid-seed who could maybe pull an upset. By the time the next quarter ends, we’ll know if either can bounce back towards these expectations, or the worst-case scenario becomes inevitable.
Will this be Marc-Andre Fleury’s last trip to Pittsburgh?
We still don’t know if this is the final season for Fleury, but the 39-year-old is in the last season of his contract. With an .875 save percentage in nine games Fleury, along with Filip Gustavsson, has struggled in Minnesota’s crease and the Wild are even behind the Oilers in the playoff picture now.
If this is the end for Fleury then there’s a huge game upcoming in December that would mark a sort of send-off for the goalie. On Dec. 18, Minnesota travels to Pittsburgh, where Fleury’s NHL career started and where he had most of his success. We’d assume the Wild would set him up to start that game, which could very well be his final one in Pittsburgh and would bring a memorable reception from fans there.
Though, we have to wonder about a couple of possibilities. One, if the Wild are well and truly out of it in February and early March, would Fleury consider waiving his no-movement clause to join a Cup hopeful looking for a 1B? Or, could Fleury see a possible international tournament on the horizon in 2025 and return to take a stab at being one of Canada’s goalers? He may not be the No. 1 anymore, but he could still be an option.
Of course, for the goalie who’s accomplished everything, it might just be time to hang them up.
William Nylander and the status of other pending UFAs
With each great game Nylander has as Toronto’s top scorer, Leafs fans stand in excitement, then sit and ponder how much, exactly, it’s going to cost to keep the winger past this season. A pending UFA, Nylander’s number could be over a $10-million AAV now and, given how the salary cap is projected to climb in coming seasons, it’s reasonable to ask if he should make more than Mitch Marner ($10.903 million).
It’s a huge question for Toronto that will get more intense as the trade deadline nears and the team risks walking this situation to the brink.
But Nylander’s just one of many impactful pending UFAs whose situations bear watching in the next couple of months.
Steven Stamkos, who started off training camp by expressing his disappointment over the lack of contract talks with Tampa Bay, has nine goals and 23 points in 21 games. He signed his last contract two days before he would have become a UFA — will this situation similarly come down to the wire?
Sam Reinhart has really found his game in Florida, where he’s posted his first two 30-goal seasons, and now he’s tied for second in goal scoring league wide with 15 in 22 games.
In Calgary the story is about their four big UFAs and what may come of them. The team was previously deep in contract extension talks with Noah Hanifin before a rough start derailed those, but now they’re back in the running. Zadorov, as mentioned, has asked out, while Chris Tanev is exactly the type of defensive defenceman who will draw a trade market. And Elias Lindholm brings immense value as the rare top-six centre who could possibly be had in-season.
Will more players turn to neck guards, or could they be mandated?
T.J. Oshie, Tyler Bertuzzi, Simon Benoit, Neal Pionk, Dylan DeMelo and Rasmus Dahlin (for part of a game) are among the NHL players who’ve worn neck guards in a game after the tragic death of Adam Johnson overseas from a skate cut. Several others have been experimenting with the new equipment in practice and the interest around the league is clearly growing.
“I think it would be stupid now to chirp somebody for wearing a neck guard,” Benoit told Luke Fox this week.
As the NHL season goes on, we’re looking to see how many more players will try the guards, how equipment manufacturers react to player feedback on such things as look, breathability and comfort, and if the league will seek to institute a formal rule. Even if it’s a grandfathering in of neck protection, the same approach taken for helmets and visors, it would be a welcome and, frankly, overdue start.
