TORONTO – Now that the Toronto Blue Jays have extended qualifying offers to Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray but not Steven Matz, the work really begins to either retain the prime free agents or replace their production.
None of the decisions was unexpected, although not qualifying Matz offers some insight into how GM Ross Atkins and the front office are valuing the lefty, as they weren’t willing to risk paying him $18.4 million for one season to ensure draft-pick compensation should he depart.
Matz recently declined a multiyear offer deal from the Blue Jays, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, an indicator that the sides have divergent views of how he fits in the market, too.
The 30-year-old now enters free agency untethered, unlike Semien and Ray, who have 10 days to accept or decline their qualifying offers. Spoiler alert, they’ll decline, and once they do the Blue Jays will receive draft picks if they sign elsewhere.
So, mostly procedural doings there.
What will complicate the Blue Jays’ work in the weeks ahead – beyond the looming expiry of the collective bargaining agreement – is that not only do they need to replace the trio’s cumulative 13.3 fWAR, but they have to do it with the financial efficiency their combined 2021 salary of $31.2 million provided.
Tying down Matz at $18.4 million would have covered one of two gaps in the rotation with a known commodity, but also would have eaten into their available payroll, which should be finalized sometime in the coming week and a half.
Between guarantees on the books and projections for arbitration-eligible and 0-3 service time players, the Blue Jays are already looking at roughly $110 million-$115 million in 2022 salary. Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro said recently he expects the club’s payroll to continue rising commensurately with the team’s competitive cycle, which means a bump from the roughly $140 million spent this season.
How high that goes will decide the exact amount of wiggle room Atkins has to work with, and also helps explain why the Blue Jays didn’t want to tie their hands early with such a significant chunk of money to Matz.
The issue is whether they can find similarly successful value plays this winter.
Matz was picked up for 40-man roster depth from the New York Mets at a salary of $5.2 million. Ray was re-signed for $8 million and delivered the most complete season of his career. Semien took an $18-million pillow contract and like Ray, is poised to sign for nine figures.
Perhaps one, two or three return, but a telling comment from Shapiro recently was that he’s “not a believer that you have to sign anyone back. I’m a believer that you have to get better.”
That was essentially a public nod that the Blue Jays will return somewhat different in 2022. Identifying a combo of adds that makes them better, with or without the trio, is the new priority.
