It was hard to imagine how the Canadian men’s national soccer team could top its previous success entering this international window.
From Alphonso Davies’ sensational goal against Panama in October in Toronto, to two wins at the “Iceteca” in Edmonton in November — including a first victory over Mexico in World Cup qualifying since 1976 to go to the top of the Concacaf table — the run exceeded any expectations imaginable.
Yet somehow, Canada has outdone itself again. First by exorcising its demons in Honduras last Thursday and then by defeating the United States in WCQ for the first time in 41 years on Sunday in Hamilton — all without key players Davies and Stephen Eustquio.
Now the Canadian men’s team is so close to a first World Cup berth since 1986, you can almost taste it. But the job’s not quite done, don’t book your roundtrip to Qatar just yet.
Canada enters Wednesday’s clash away in El Salvador undefeated in the octagonal stage and first in the table with 22 points. The United States and Mexico are second and third with 18, while fourth-place Panama has 17 and fifth-place Costa Rica has 13. Here’s a look at the table:
Top of the table, FOUR points clear #CANMNT #WCQ #ForCanada pic.twitter.com/PJKPg51ZPf
— Canada Soccer (@CanadaSoccerEN) January 31, 2022
The top three teams in Concacaf earn direct berths to the Qatar World Cup while the fourth-place team will face the winner of the Oceania region in a June playoff for another chance at a World Cup spot.
With four games remaining for each team, the maximum number of points Costa Rica can finish with is 25, while the most Panama can finish with is 29.
Therefore, Canada needs a combination of four points to steer clear of Costa Rica to guarantee at least a fourth-place finish — whether it’s by earning points themselves or from Costa Rica dropping points — or eight points to guarantee a finish ahead of Panama and secure a spot in the World Cup.
So can Canada clinch a berth with a win versus El Salvador on Wednesday? It’s unlikely, but possible.
Here’s what needs to happen on Wednesday night:
• Canada wins vs. El Salvador
• United States loses vs. visiting Honduras in frigid conditions in Minnesota.
• Panama loses vs. host Mexico
• Costa Rica draws or loses vs. host Jamaica
If all the stars align, Canada would be guaranteed to finish ahead of Costa Rica, and since Panama and United States play each other in the next window, one would not be able to catch Canada as they’re bound to take points off each other. Thus, Canada would be guaranteed a Top 3 finish and a place in the world’s biggest tournament for just the second time in history.
Regardless of Wednesday’s result, Canada’s odds of missing out are remarkably slim, so if you’ve already pulled the trigger on plane tickets to Doha, you probably don’t need to sweat it.
Questions ahead of match in El Salvador
Will Eustaquio play?
After testing positive for COVID-19 prior to the international window, Eustaquio, perhaps the top midfielder in Canada’s squad, missed the games against Honduras and the United States — despite there being some hope he would play Sunday.
Head coach John Herdman said on Tuesday that Eustaquio awaits the team in El Salvador, so you can bet you’ll see the recent Porto loanee on the pitch in some manner on Wednesday.
Could we see significant changes to the lineup?
Herdman made four changes from the Honduras game to the United States game, and with Eustaquio back, defender Steven Vitoria suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards and the fact Canada will be playing its third game in seven days, you can expect more Wednesday night.
Canadian captain Atiba Hutchinson will also be an option after serving his one-game suspension versus the United States.
With Cyle Larin and Jonathan David having started both games up front together, watch for new Canadian international Iké Ugbo to potentially get a look this time around. He came on for David in the 84th minute against the Americans. Lucas Cavallini is another option up top.
Veteran Doneil Henry should be the man Herdman selects to replace Vitoria at centre-back.
What will the environment be like?
Games in Central America are notoriously hostile, but if last week’s match in Honduras taught us anything, 50 per cent capacity significantly dampens a crowd’s wrath.
The Estadio Cuscatlán in San Salvador will also be at 50 per cent capacity, so Canada may not face the type of environment we’d typically come to expect for a Concacaf game in Central America.
The temperature in San Salvador at 8 p.m. local time is projected to be 20 C, ideal conditions for a soccer match. Not that it seems to matter if you’re Canada.
Looking ahead: Does it matter if Canada finishes first, second or third?
The short answer is no, but every point still matters. Where Canada finishes in the Concacaf table, as long as it qualifies, will not directly impact its World Cup group stage draw.
FIFA will select the World Cup groups by splitting the 32 teams into four pots based on standing in the FIFA rankings when the draw takes place in April. Pot 1 consists of the seven highest-ranked teams plus the host country, Pot 2 is made up of the next eight highest-ranked, and so on for Pot 3 and 4. FIFA then draws one team out of each pot to create a group, of which there are eight. The only exceptions are that teams from the same confederation cannot be drawn to the same group, save for UEFA where there can be a maximum of two.
So, indirectly, Canada does itself a favour by winning matches and improving its FIFA ranking in the process, but where the team finishes in the Concacaf table is irrelevant.
The men’s national team has skyrocketed up the rankings due to its meteoric rise in recent months. Still, Canada is 40th as of right now — the United States and Mexico, for example, are 11th and 14th. Therefore, Canada needs to keep stringing wins together to have a chance to get out of Pot 4.
Who does Canada face in the final qualifying window?
Canada will return to action March 24 in Costa Rica before hosting Jamaica on March 27 (the venue has not been announced) and playing in Panama on March 30 to wrap up qualifying.
