Watching the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday night, fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs might have had an epiphany. That would’ve been the lightbulb that went on as they watched Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl operate at warp speed, then dial the speed down for a patient second, then put defenders back in the blender like it was smoothie time.
That epiphany might’ve been: “The Leafs just don’t have that top gear anymore.”
Maybe they never had that top gear, but they sure had a good one, and for many consecutive seasons.
It’s one thing to lose Mitch Marner, sure, but to have also lost MVP Auston Matthews — whose current form has him pacing to 63 points in 77 games with “meh” defensive results — has not been “death by 1,000 cuts” but rather death by a couple, distinct, deep ones. Beyond the top of the roster they’re an otherwise decent team, which is more or less what they’ve been every year, though it used to come with that vaunted top gear.
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Without being able to reach a level that few teams could, the Leafs are no longer special. There’s just no fear in the hearts of the opposing defence anymore, there’s no shifts where the opposition just hangs on for dear life, and Toronto’s inevitability is gone. You can beat the Leafs’ top line now, which pulls down their ceiling and leaves them to be described as one of the more well-known audio drops on Real Kyper and Bourne: Mid.
They’re not bad, nor have they ever been outright bad past the “core four” they were once built around. They’ve been pushing for a Cup the whole time, so none of their roster pieces are a joke or anything, but this year they’re just like about 25 other NHL teams.
They’re just mid.
And when you’re mid, you ride the percentages train. You might hit a patch with a hot shooting percentage where some pucks just find their way in, so you win a few in a row. Maybe some other days your defence accidentally shoots it in your own net, or some floaters squeak through, so you lose a few. But on the Mid Express, you lose the ability to consciously drive your team where you want to go, and so you just go as the luck does.
Maybe you’re lucky enough to stay healthy while some of your opponents aren’t, or maybe you’ll face a rash of injuries. If you’re mid, you’re just hanging on.
As I observe all this, I think it’s fair that a Leafs fan, or heck, a Leafs player, would be really frustrated by the assessment, though I hope they wouldn’t say it’s wrong.
It’s frustrating, because even if they never get back to that ever-threatening top gear, there’s still a couple things that can push the Mid Express to a marginally better track, even when you’re still somewhat reliant on luck:
1. Coaching
My thinking with a mid team is, how many standings points better might they be with the best coaches in the league (whoever you believe that to be). And how many worse would they be with whoever you consider the worst?
Would the Leafs move up or down with either of those imagined staffs?
That’s just somewhere to start thinking about it, and I think every NHL coaching staff would agree that the places where coaching is most visible – past line-building and player deployment – are in their defensive results and special teams. Structure is more obvious there.
Coaches are far less likely to make demands of the offence, as Craig Berube telling Matthews or William Nylander how to make plays is sort of silly. But he’s seen enough hockey and experienced enough winning to know where these guys should stand defensively.
So far, the defensive results aren’t sterling.
The Leafs are 23rd in the NHL in goals against per game, and that’s generous. They’re worse in slot shots, and dead last in “offensive zone possession time,” meaning they’re just stuck in their own end. They’re 27th in limiting their opponent’s offensive zone time.
Yes, they’re missing two good defensive defencemen, but they weren’t great before their absences either.
We’re also aware that the power play has mostly been a tragedy (up to 30th place as of this writing), which is at least partially on the coaching (they’re not utterly bereft of talent out there). The PK has at least been better, sitting 10th. But by and large, if the Leafs are going to be a better team, they need better results in the areas where coacbhing is most clearly reflected.
2. Leadership
Berube alluded to this post-game on Saturday night… and by “alluded to,” I mean “cited it directly.” His exact quote was: “Our leaders have to take control of it a lot more than they are right now.”
Tough to argue.
The clip that bothered me most from last game against Edmonton came when the score was out of reach, after I had long reached a boiling point at the massive volume of one-off, one-man rushes the Leafs attempted. They weren’t using each other, but rather each forward seemed to be taking their own turn dashing against all the Oilers up the ice, one-vs-however many were back.
And when those didn’t pan out into some beautiful rush, they’d just keep on skating, and make a wide loop back to the play. On those rushes, there was no chipping the puck in and going after it, no stopping on pucks to battle, just a bunch of attempts to use their skill to do something neat-o.
All three guys here on the top line take their turn trying to do something neat, nobody pulls it off, they all keep skating by, and so the Oilers got to rush it back the other way yet again.
I don’t care what’s ailing Matthews here. Back? Wrist? Gingivitis? Stop on a puck you don’t have and compete for it. Don’t just keep floating into the offensive zone hoping the next guy wins the puck.
Are Toronto’s top players not buying what their coaches are selling, or have they just decided on their own to stop making solid hockey decisions? I truly can’t make sense of it, but playing like the above is a great way to stay Super Mid.
If the Leafs are going to be better, their best players need to stop playing pond hockey, grab the bull by the horns, and lead.
3. Additions
If the Leafs are still truly in “go for it” mode, as they proclaimed pre-season, then it’s time to face facts about their mid-ness. A return by Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo might help elevate them to upper-mid, but the league’s best teams still have that top gear I talked about in the opening, and right now it seems like the Leafs don’t.
To get there, they need help. I don’t know who that means specifically (is Alex Tuch possible?), but the fact is they just don’t have the horses right now. They’re almost entirely devoid of trade chips, but if we’re talking about how this team elevates from mid back to dangerous, you just have to acknowledge they may be light on talent if Matthews isn’t That Matthews.
In sum, after 31 games, the Leafs’ mid-ness has become undeniable. For that to change, they need the goaltending to hold, and they need to get positive outcomes in all of the topics I’ve written about today. Otherwise, they’re destined for something like a 10th place finish in the conference, or maybe it all breaks right and they’re an eight-seed that’s done after four or five playoff games.
Either way, in those scenarios, it’ll look an awful lot like a big step back for an organization whose winning “window” would be called into question. Because as of today, it’s clear the Leafs are in ‘mid’ season form.
