As the Toronto Blue Jays started to get their season on course in late August — and their playoff aspirations became legitimate — there was always a “but” hanging over their surprising season.
Sure, the team was doing well, but in September they’d have to do battle with the dreaded New York Yankees 10 times. If they didn’t stockpile enough wins before the teams met, there was a good chance the Bronx Bombers would snuff out their plucky run to the post-season.
Now, the situation looks a little different.
The Yankees have won just five of their last 16 games, and lost a number of crucial contributors to injury including Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gio Urshela, James Paxton, and Jonathan Loaisiga. They no longer look remotely like world-beaters destined to derail the Blue Jays’ season.
New York’s misfortune has added a significant wrinkle to the 10 times they’ll tango with Toronto this month. It was once fair to assume the Blue Jays were simply fighting to hold on to the eighth seed in the American League. Given the state of the Yankees, and their drop in the standings, these games now look like the battle for second spot in the AL East — and a more favourable matchup in October.
With that in mind, it’s worth examining which Blue Jays have the best chance to help decide their fate in this matchup:
Taijuan Walker
Even with Judge and Stanton on the sidelines with vague return dates, the most dangerous hitters on the Yankees bat from the right side. Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, and even the slumping Gary Sanchez, are right-handers. That means pitchers who are death to righties will be critical to the Blue Jays.
This season — with a revamped game plan focused on high cutter and splitter usage — Walker has fit that description. So far in 2020, right-handers are hitting .169/.247/.229 against him. The cutter is really the key pitch here, and with its 27.1 per cent whiff rate it’s been the best swing-and-miss weapon the 28-year-old has against same-handed hitters.
He can either throw it a little slower and with depth, to the point where it’s essentially a slider…
… or give it a little more juice and get in on his opponents’ hands.
Either way, the pitch can be devastating.
If he’s able to continue the success against righties he’s had all season, it will make guys like Brett Gardner and Mike Ford the biggest threats to him. That’s a pretty good situation to be in.
For one of the few times in their history, the Yankees just don’t have an intimidating left-handed power presence in their lineup, and Walker is poised to take advantage.
Although the Yankees pitching staff has been compromised by injuries, one thing the group can still do with regularity is bring the heat. New York’s pitchers have collectively averaged 94.0 m.p.h. on their fastballs this season — the fifth-best velocity in the majors. In order to put runs on the board, the Blue Jays are going to have to lean on their guys who’re the best at handling the hard stuff.
Guerrero Jr. has been the club’s best hitter of high-velocity pitches since he debuted last year. Since the beginning of 2019, he has significantly more hits on pitches 94 m.p.h. or faster (35) than anybody else on the team. Next on the list is Justin Smoak at 26, and Teoscar Hernandez at 25. One of those guys is long gone. The other is in injury limbo.
For all the flak Guerrero Jr. takes for a swing that’s produced a disappointingly low launch angle in his MLB career, there’s no denying his bat speed. The way he combines elite bat speed with impressive raw strength is what made him such a singular prospect in the first place.
A perfect example of this came last year against one the Yankees’ bullpen aces, Zack Britton. Watch how effortless this 434-foot home run looks despite the fact he’s contending with a 95.3 m.p.h. fastball exactly where Britton wants it.
Guerrero Jr. could be the Blue Jays’ best chance against a number of the Yankees’ top pitchers, from Gerrit Cole down to their high-leverage relievers.
While Guerrero Jr. will be vital to countering one of the Yankees’ greatest strengths, Gurriel Jr. could be the guy to exploit one of their primary weaknesses — namely their left-side defence.
The left side of the Yankees infield is a mess in the wake of Urshela’s elbow injury. Gleyber Torres is error prone at shortstop and grades out as below-average in the range department. Meanwhile, Urshela’s spot is now most-frequently manned by Miguel Andujar, who posted a -21 DRS and -16.0 UZR in his only full season at the hot corner.
New York’s left fielder situation is a little better as Brett Gardner remains a solid defender at the age of 37. He plays his fair share of games in centre field as well, though, and other left field options range from relatively unknown quantities defensively (Mike Tauchman), to known liabilities (Clint Frazier) to total experiments (Andujar). Anytime Gardner isn’t playing in left, that side of the field projects to be an adventure.
Gurriel Jr. is the guy most likely to benefit from that because he’s the biggest pull hitter (47.6 per cent) among the Blue Jays’ stable of righties, and he has a tendency to yank the ball down the line, as his spray chart of 2020 base hits shows:
A.J. Cole (and friends)
Another weakness the Blue Jays can take advantage of is the Yankees’ aversion to the slider. FanGraphs pitch value stats peg the club as contributing -12.2 runs against sliders, the second-worst total in the league. Particularly bad offenders include Gardner (-4.2 runs), Torres (-2.3) and Sanchez (-2.2).
That opens the door for Blue Jays pitchers who rely on that pitch, and Cole springs to mind as someone who throws 48 per cent sliders. Not only does the right-hander lean on the offering, the results with it have been spectacular. Hitters have managed an expected batting average of .147 against the pitch with an expected slugging percentage of .190. It has also accounted for 11 of Cole’s 13 strikeouts. Cole has gotten some huge outs for this team, and he’s well-positioned to do so against the Yankees.
Blue Jays Newsletter
It also bears mentioning the two top dogs of the Blue Jays’ bullpen — Jordan Romano and Ken Giles — are also heavy slider users. Romano throws his breaking ball 59.9 per cent of the time and Giles was at 66.7 per cent before he went down. That number was inflated by a weird sample and issues he was having with his heater, but even last season the veteran closer threw 49.4 per cent sliders.
The timetable for these guys is a little bit unclear at the moment, so we’ll stick Cole in this spot, but if either Romano or Giles are closing down games against the Yankees later this month, they’ll be in a good position to succeed.
Although the Blue Jays are playing just three games at Yankee Stadium, the discussion of who can take advantage of the ballpark’s comically short right-field porch is an institution. Because the Yankees are low on left-handed power themselves, it could be the Blue Jays that find themselves wearing out this stadium quirk.
Rowdy Tellez is the team’s best left-handed power threat right now, but he generally hits home runs long enough that don’t require help. Biggio is an interesting candidate to make something special happen because he has a high flyball rate (42 per cent) without great raw power, which results in plenty of medium-deep flyouts.
Here’s a spray chart of his in-play flyballs and line drives to right field in his career against an overlay of Yankee Stadium:
Plenty of balls that have ended up as harmless outs for him, or doubles, would be over the fence at Yankee Stadium. Even though the Blue Jays are only playing three games in New York, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Biggio have a couple of long flies drop in the seats.
